Friday, November 24, 2006

When Votes Disappear: PAUL KRUGMAN

THE COMPLETE ARTICLE

The New York Times Company

OP-ED COLUMNIST
When Votes Disappear
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: November 24, 2006

Do we have to wait for a constitutional crisis to realize that we’re in danger of becoming a digital-age banana republic?

Excerpt

"The problem is that the official vote count isn’t credible."

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Carlyle gains access to our computers


Related
Carlyle Group
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlyle_Group

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Carlyle group bids $5.5 bln for Taiwan's ASE
Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:51 AM ET


NEW YORK/TAIPEI (Reuters) - A private equity consortium led by The Carlyle Group plans a $5.5 billion bid for the world's top chip packaging firm, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (ASE), Taiwan-based ASE said on Friday.

At T$39 a share, the potential offer represents a 10 percent premium to ASE's Friday closing price of T$35.5 a share, and values the firm at about T$179 billion ($5.46 billion), according to Reuters data.

Private equity shops are looking for domestic technology firms, which generate steady cash flow, have a long-term upward growth trend, and have multiple business units that can be listed or sold, analysts said.

Earlier this week, U.S.-based Jabil Circuit Inc., a maker of electronic components for mobile phones and computers, said it planned to buy Taiwan's Green Point Enterprises Co. for around $881 million -- at around a 3.8 percent premium.

ASE, which encases silicon chips in plastic packages so they can be connected to circuit boards, said the bid consortium already has ASE Chief Executive Jason Chang on board with the deal.

Chang and his affiliated holding company, ASE Enterprises Ltd., hold about 18.4 percent of ASE's shares, but ASE said it had not yet approved the bid and no formal offer had been made.

"Discussions between ASE and the consortium have not been completed, and there can be no assurance that an offer will ultimately be made by the consortium or what the ultimate terms of such an offer would be," said a statement from ASE released in New York.

ASE reported last month its third-quarter profit more than doubled on recovering chip demand, but forecast weaker sales and falling profit margins in the fourth quarter.

The company counts ATI Technologies, Freescale Semiconductor Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. as its major clients.

Its 2006 net profit is forecast to increase by a quarter to T$18.28 trillion, according to Reuters Estimates.

Its forecast earnings per share is T$3.93, making the bid about 10 times forecast earnings, similar to that of smaller local rival Siliconware Precision Industries Ltd.

(Additional reporting by Jean Yoon and Ian Geoghegan in Singapore)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-11-24T115045Z_01_SP121957_RTRUKOC_0_US-ASE-CARLYLE.xml

US troops open fire on civilians again, Afghan doctor killed

US troops open fire on civilians, Afghan doctor killed
Thu Nov 23, 7:05 AM ET


US troops opened fire on a civilian car on the outskirts of the Afghan capital, causing a traffic accident that killed an Afghan doctor and wounded four other people, officials said.

The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said in a statement a civilian van was "observed driving suspiciously" Wednesday near a US patrol on a road between Kabul and the main US base at Bagram, north of the city.

"ISAF troops signalled for the vehicle to stop and fired a number of shots. The driver subsequently lost control of the van and unfortunately crashed," it said on Thursday.

"Regrettably, one of the civilians was killed and four were injured."

The Afghan interior ministry confirmed the incident saying it involved US troops and it had been told the dead man was a doctor. Reports said he had been working at a health facility in Bagram.

Civilian deaths caused by foreign troops have become increasingly sensitive in Afghanistan with human rights groups expressing alarm at the mounting toll which is disaffecting the population.

ISAF soldiers were accused of killing scores of civilians in an October 24 raid against Taliban fighters in the southern province of Kandahar. The force has not released the results of its investigation but The New York Times last week cited a senior ISAF official saying 31 civilians were killed.

Wednesday's incident was not far from where a deadly traffic accident involving a US military truck sparked day-long rioting in May in the centre of Kabul. Around a dozen people were killed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061123/wl_sthasia_afp/afghanistanunrestus

Nato goals reduced as Afghan woes grow


By Daniel Dombey and Stephen Fidler in London


Published: November 23 2006 22:02 Last updated: November 23 2006 22:02


Nato’s difficulties in Afghanistan have forced the alliance to scale down its ambitions for a showpiece summit next week and raised questions about its ability to get to grips with the insurgency in the country.

The summit in Riga, Latvia, was intended to focus on the 26-nation alliance’s “transformation” into a 21st century political and military organisation, with more deployable forces and global reach.

A classified document obtained by the Financial Times, and due to be endorsed by leaders, maps out new ambitions for the next 15 years, including development of the ability to carry out more than one big operation at once.

But the meeting will now be overshadowed by Afghanistan, where more than 30,000 troops are under Nato command. It is Nato’s biggest mission and the first in which it has been involved in ground conflict.

Tony Blair, British prime minister, said this week that “the future in the early 21st century of the world” was at stake in the conflict in Afghanistan. But in spite of appeals to Nato solidarity and months of US-UK efforts to persuade more countries to send troops to the country’s turbulent south, Nato officials say the Riga summit is highly unlikely to provide a big new commitment.

A senior Nato official said: “Are we magically going to get big new news against the artificial deadline of the summit? I don’t think so. For a number of those heads at the table, they have not invested as much in Afghanistan as others. This is a wake-up call for everybody that it’s a long term mission.”

Hundreds of government and Nato officials are travelling to Latvia but the agenda for the meeting, the first full summit for two years, has been cut back to two working sessions spanning less than 24 hours.

Nicholas Burns, US under-secretary of state, last month urged Germany and France to help Dutch, British, Canadian and US soldiers fighting in the south. But Angela Merkel, German chancellor, this week ruled out sending German troops.

Nato is dogged by differences among allies over the alliance’s future, with the US seeking a significantly wider brief and countries such as France worried about over-extension. Countries such as Germany have political difficulties over deploying combat-ready troops.

Gen James Jones, Nato’s military chief, in September called for up to 2,500 more personnel to be sent to Afghanistan by the winter. But he said this week that he still only had 85 per cent of the troops and material he wanted – the same figure he quoted in September.

Nato officials said on Thursday they were hopeful of some new troop commitments by the time of the summit but that they would not be “dramatic”.

Other plans the summit was intended to showcase, such as enhanced partnerships with Australia and Japan, have also been scaled down.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4bfb0a40-7b25-11db-bf9b-0000779e2340.html

An Electronic Canary


By E. J. Dionne Jr.

Friday, November 24, 2006; A41


Americans can be grateful that Sarasota County is in Florida and not in Montana or Virginia.

There's nothing wrong with Sarasota, a lovely place. But if the voting snafus in the contest for Florida's 13th District had hung up either of this year's two closest Senate races, we still would not know which party had won control of the Senate.

Supporters of new voting technologies have been patting themselves on the back, saying there were no big voting problems this year. Let them go to Sarasota.

Here's the story so far: The official vote count in the battle for -- you won't believe this -- Katherine Harris's seat put Republican Vern Buchanan 369 votes ahead of Democrat Christine Jennings out of roughly 238,000 votes cast.

But in Sarasota County, there was an "undervote" of more than 18,000 -- meaning that those voters supposedly didn't choose to record votes in the Buchanan-Jennings race. Jennings carried the county 53 percent to 47 percent.

The Sarasota undervote in the congressional race amounted to nearly 15 percent. Kendall Coffey, Jennings's lawyer, has pointed out that in the other four counties in the district, the undervote ranged from 2.2 to 5.3 percent. Put another way, roughly 18,000 of the 21,000 undervotes in the contest came from Sarasota County.

It's hard to believe that Sarasota's voters had a different view of the race than voters everywhere else in the district, considering that the undervote on the county's absentee ballots, cast on paper, was only 2.5 percent. The upshot: Any reasonable statistical analysis suggests that only 3,000 to 5,000 of Sarasota's undervotes were intentional, meaning that 13,000 to 15,000 votes were probably not counted.

If you believe that these machines operated properly, then you must also believe that I missed my true vocation as an NBA center.

Imagine if 18,000 votes had just disappeared in either of the key Senate races. Or imagine a presidential election in which the electoral votes of Florida were decisive and the state was hanging in the balance by -- to pick a number that comes to mind -- 537 votes. And, by the way, in 2000 we could at least see those hanging and dimpled chads. In this case the votes have -- poof! -- simply disappeared.

Despite the Sarasota problem, the state Elections Canvassing Commission certified Buchanan's "victory." Jennings has gone to court to demand a new election.

But there is good news here: This is a problem in just one congressional district. Control of the House does not depend on how this race turns out. It is therefore in the interest of both parties, not to mention the country, to be simultaneously aggressive and judicious in figuring out what went wrong in Sarasota and to use that knowledge to fix the nation's voting system before a major disaster strikes. Sarasota is the canary in the electronic coal mine.

On Tuesday, Judge William L. Gary decided not to move the case along quite as fast as Jennings had requested. That will prove to be an excellent decision if the delay is part of an effort to collect every bit of information we can on Sarasota's machines.

Jennings's lawyers have asked the judge to give her campaign full access to at least eight of the voting machines and their software -- a fair request. If the taxpayer-supported companies that sell this equipment are not willing to be 100 percent open about how their machines and their programming work, they should not be allowed to record and count the people's votes.

And if anyone still needs evidence that all electronic systems should provide verifiable paper trails so real ballots are available in the event of a recount, let them go to Sarasota.

If the courts punt, Congress, which has a right to judge the credentials of its members, should get to the bottom of this. It may be asking the impossible, but Democrats and Republicans should not make this a fight about which party picks up one more seat. Instead, they should conduct a joint inquest into this contest to provide a basis for bipartisan legislation creating national standards for improving our voting systems.

The U.S. Supreme Court has insisted that "[h]aving once granted the right to vote on equal terms, the State may not, by later arbitrary and disparate treatment, value one person's vote over that of another." Thousands of voters in the 13th District have an interest in demanding that the system live up to those words, which came from the decision in a little case in 2000 called Bush v. Gore.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/23/AR2006112300965.html

US involved for longer time in Iraq than in World War II


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by Jerome Bernard
Thu Nov 23, 12:29 PM ET


The US involvement in Iraq will pass another sad milestone on Sunday, when it overtakes the length of America's engagement in World War II.

While the two wars are far apart in character -- and in their death tolls -- the Iraq campaign has become a symbol of the pitfalls of the new style of conflict.

World War II ended for Americans after 1,348 days. US soldiers facing a still largely unknown enemy in Iraq do not know when their country will leave, more than three years after the US-led invasion.

American politicians have not failed to note the symbolism.

"I remember the (World War II) period well," Senator John Warner, Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services committee, who served as a sailor during the war, said at a hearing last week on Iraq.

"I note that on November 26, 2006 this year, but a few days away, our involvement in Iraq will surpass the length of this historic World War II period," Warner said.

The committee's top Democrat, Senator Carl Levin, pointed to the Iraq war's length as he pushed for a phased withdrawal of US troops within four to six months.

"We are three and one-half years into a conflict which has already lasted longer than the Korean conflict and almost as long as World War II. We should put the responsibility for Iraq's future squarely where it belongs: on the Iraqis. We cannot save the Iraqis from themselves," Levin said.

America's involvement in World War II started with Japan's air raid on US Navy ships in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.

The European war ended with Germany's surrender on May 8, 1945, while the Pacific operations ended August 15, 1945 with Japan's surrender.

According to Defense Department figures, more than 2,860 US soldiers have died in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion. More than 21,000 have been wounded, according to the independent website Iraq Coalition Casualties.

The grim figures do not compare with the US military casualties in World War II, when 406,000 American soldiers died and 671,000 were wounded, according to official US statistics.

"It is an entirely different affair, because it is the same length of time but a far smaller level of national effort," Geoffrey Wawro, a history professor at the University of North Texas, told AFP.

"Expenditures have been lower, there has been no conscription, no draft to bring in the bulk of the society, so the experience of the war has been confined to a small professional army," Wawro said.

During World War II, Americans were forced to tighten their belts, while US President George W. Bush has pursued his tax-slashing policy during the Iraq war, he said.

"During the Second World War, you would have had tax increases, you would have had austerity, you would have had rationing, and so the experience of war would have been deeply felt," Wawro said. "Here, it is very superficially felt."

Iraq war critics use Sunday's milestone "to show that this has not been the cakewalk that George W. Bush and his acolytes pretended it would," the historian said.

Americans still remember Bush proclaiming on May 1, 2003 the end of "major combat operations" in Iraq on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. Behind him was a banner stating: "Mission Accomplished".

Wawro said that there was a "sense of amazement and bewilderment at the length of this war" and that its supporters said it would be short and not paid for by US taxpayers.

"In fact, it is long, and it is American-financed," said Wawro. "They are pointing out that this war, that was supposed to be a lightning campaign, has become more like World War II, a war of attrition."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061123/pl_afp/usiraqwarwwiihistory_061123172950

Thursday, November 23, 2006

115 die, 150 hurt in attacks in Iraq

AP
49 minutes ago


Police report that suicide bombings and mortar attacks on Sadr City, Baghdad's Shiite slum, killed 115 and wounded 150.

The bombs and mortar shells struck at 15 minute intervals beginning about 3 p.m., with the first suicide bombing killing about 10 people in a vegetable market.

Angry residents and armed militiamen flooded the streets hurling curses at Sunni Muslims.

Heavy clashes broke out Thursday afternoon between gunmen and guards at the Shiite-controlled Health Ministry building in north Baghdad, security officials said.

State-run Iraqiyah television said the Health Ministry was being attacked with mortars by "terrorists who are intending to take control of the building."

The security officials said about 30 gunmen, believed to be Sunni insurgents, had launched the attack.

Iraqi troops were being rushed to the area and all roads leading to the ministry in Bab al-Muadham neighborhood were closed, said the security officials on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters.

Police Lt. Ali Muhsin said the attack began at 2:10 p.m. when three mortar shells hit the building, causing damage. After that, gunmen on the upper floors of surrounding buildings opened fire. Ministry workers were trapped in the building, but there were no immediate reports of casualties.

Health Minister Ali al-Shemari is a follower of radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr whose Mahdi Army militia is blamed for killing thousands of Sunni Muslims.

Early Thursday morning, U.S. and Iraqi forces swept into Baghdad's Sadr City slum, killing four Iraqis, wounding eight and detaining five in the latest raid on the Shiite stronghold, police said.

Hours later, a car bomb exploded in a major Sadr City food market, killing at least 10 and wounding 15, police said. Three mortar shells crashed to earth nearby.

About 15 cars were destroyed and ambulances were racing to take away the wounded, said police Col. Hassan Chaloub.

Car bombs in Sadr City in the past months have killed and wounded hundreds.

Police Capt. Mohammed Ismail said coalition forces searched Sadr City houses at about 4:30 a.m. and opened fire on a minivan carrying Iraqi workers in the al-Fallah Street area, causing the deaths and injuries. Iraqis often pay a small fee to crowd into such vehicles and travel early in the morning to sites where they hope to be hired as day laborers.

In a statement, the U.S. military confirmed the raid and said it was conducted in the continuing effort to find an American soldier who was kidnapped Oct. 23. It confirmed that a vehicle was shot at by Iraqi forces after "displaying hostile intent," but did not report on casualties.

It was the fourth raid in six days on the slum that is home to the Mahdi Army, the militia loyal to radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The Mahdi Army is suspected of kidnapping an American soldier last month and taking scores of Iraqi hostages during an attack on a government building in Baghdad on Nov. 14.

Ismail said the coalition also detained five Iraqis during the raid.

Residents of Sadr City gathered around the bloodstained, bullet-riddled minivan.

"I was surprised by the heavy shooting on our minivan. I was hit badly in my left hand," said one worker, Ahmed Gatie, 24, as he was treated at Imam Ali hospital. "I can only feed my family when I work. What will happen now?"

Witness Salah Salman, 24, said he and other local residents helped police carry victims of the attack from the minivan to the morgue and hospital.

The raid came weeks after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, ordered the U.S. military to lift a blockade of the sprawling east Baghdad grid of streets lined with tumbledown concrete block structures and vacant lots.

American forces had sealed the district for several days looking for kidnapped U.S. soldier Ahmed Qusai al-Taayie, a 41-year-old reservist from Ann Arbor, Michigan. He was visiting his Iraqi wife in Baghdad on Oct. 23 when he was handcuffed and abducted by suspected rogue gunmen from the Mahdi Army.

Al-Sadr is a major political backer of al-Maliki, who had rejected American demands to disband the heavily armed militias and their death squads, which have carried out a brutal campaign of revenge attacks on Iraq's Sunni minority in a cycle of violence following the Feb. 22 bombing of a Shiite shrine.

But Al-Maliki has looked the other way during the most recent joint U.S.-Iraqi raids, an about-face his aides said was prompted by anger over the U.S. soldier's abduction and a mass kidnapping carried out by suspected Mahdi Army gunmen. Dozens of gunmen in police uniforms kidnapped scores of people during the raid on a Ministry of Higher Education office in Baghdad on Nov. 14. The ministry is predominantly Sunni Arab.

At least 101 Iraqis were killed Wednesday and the U.N. reported that 3,709 Iraqi civilians were killed in October, the highest monthly toll of the war and one that is likely to be eclipsed when November's dead are counted.

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq also said that citizens were fleeing the country at a pace of 100,000 each month, and that at least 1.6 million Iraqis have left since the war began in March 2003.

Life for Iraqis, especially in Baghdad and cities and towns in the center of the country, has become increasingly untenable. Many schools failed to open at all in September, and professionals — especially professors, physicians, politicians and journalists — are falling to sectarian killers at a stunning rate.

Lynchings have been reported as Sunnis and Shiites conduct a merciless campaign of revenge killings.

The U.N. figure for the number of killings in October was more than three times the 1,216 tabulated by The Associated Press and nearly 840 more than the 2,870 U.S. service members who have died during the war.

The U.S. military on Thursday reported the deaths of three Marines in fighting in Anbar province, where many Sunni Arab insurgents are based.

So far this month, 52 American service members have been killed or died.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061123/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_061123141404