Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Japan Cautiously Mulls Dumping Dollar

MoneyNews
Japan Mulls Moving Reserves from Dollar

Thursday, April 19, 2007 ABU DHABI -- Japan is cautious about shifting its foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar for fear of triggering a slide in the U.S. currency, Tokyo's top financial diplomat, Hiroshi Watanabe, said on Thursday.

At around $900 billion, Japan's reserves, held predominantly in dollars, are the world's second largest after China's and were built up mainly in 2003 and 2004 as the Bank of Japan bought dollars to check the Japanese currency's rise.

The dollar's slide against other currencies over the past three years has prompted central banks around the world to consider reducing their exposure to U.S. assets. The dollar tumbled to a two-year low against the euro this month.

"Most countries are diversifying their investments to non-U.S. dollar assets. But in the case of Japan, we are still cautious about shifting from the dollar to other currencies," Watanabe said in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates.

"If we do that it goes towards the depreciation of the dollar. So why should we trigger such a stupid action?" Watanabe, vice finance minister for international affairs, said.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Okinawans outraged by what they say is a cover-up of military-urged mass suicides during WWII battle

By David Allen, Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Sunday, April 8, 2007




David Allen / S&S
A statue of an Okinawan mother and child inside a walled-off monument to civilians who were convinced to commit suicide rather than surrender to American invasion troops 62 years ago. The monument was vandalized by right-wing Japanese nationalists in 1987 because they said it embarrassed the emperor.
Purchase reprint



David Allen / S&S
The bottom of the monument at a Yomitan "sucidie cave" called Chibichiri Gama was vandalized by right-wing nationalists and walled up to protect it from further damage. Of the 140 peoplewho hid in the cave when the Americans landed 62 years ago, 84 took their lives. (pnw# 61p cs)
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Controversy is nothing new

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — Recent outrage over Japan’s Ministry of Education’s censorship of Battle of Okinawa accounts in history textbooks is not new.

A similar controversy developed in 1999 when then-Gov. Keiichi Inamine tried to buff up the image of the Imperial Japanese Army, which, according to survivors, encouraged Okinawan civilians to commit suicide during the battle 62 years ago.

At the time, the new Peace Prayer & Memorial Exhibition Center in Mabuni had commissioned artists to design battle dioramas for the $412 million building. Some of the displays told the horror of civilians hiding in caves in Southern Okinawa in the last days of the battle.

One of the displays portrayed a Japanese soldier pointing his bayoneted rifle at a mother who fearfully clutched a baby to her bosom.

Upon learning of the display, Inamine suggested it be toned down by having the rifle removed from the soldier’s hands.

Inamine urged that the text accompanying displays also be changed. For example, the word “massacre” in the description of the massive deaths in the caves was to be changed to “sacrifice.”

But when the word got out, Okinawa Prefectural Assembly members accused Inamine of wanting to tone down history so tourists from mainland Japan would not be offended.

The original displays and written material eventually were allowed to stand. But when the gun was replaced in the soldier’s hands, it was no longer pointing at the mother and child.

Related story:
Survivors remember commotion then calm inside Okinawa cave

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — Exactly 62 years after the start of the Battle of Okinawa, another battle is shaping up here.

Some say it’s a battle for the truth.

Last weekend the Japanese Ministry of Education instructed publishers of school textbooks to alter descriptions of the mass suicide of Okinawa civilians during the battle. The order included eliminating all references to the Japanese military’s direct role in the tragedies, erasing accounts in earlier texts that claimed the Imperial Japanese Army instructed Okinawans to kill themselves rather than submit to U.S. invaders.

“There are divergent views of whether or not the suicides were ordered by the army and no proof to say either way. So it would be misleading to say the army was responsible,” said Yumiko Tomimori, an official in the Education Ministry.

The news drew outrage from Okinawans who claim the government is bent on whitewashing history. The ministry’s decision came on the heels of denials from politicians in Tokyo that women throughout Asia were forced to serve in Japanese military brothels.

For years, Okinawa teachers have fought to prevent school textbooks from glossing over that hundreds of civilians committed suicide during the battle, many of them reportedly with grenades Japanese soldiers distributed specifically for that purpose.

University of the Ryukyus professor Nobuyuki Takashima, a member of the Association to Not Allow the Distortion of the History of the Battle of Okinawa, said the education ministry is pushing “their one-sided historic perspective that the mass suicide was beautiful death of residents who died in the love and loyalty to their nation.”

The association planned a protest rally in Naha on Friday night.

Takashima and others believe the ministry’s move was prompted by a lawsuit in which the former commander of the Japanese army garrison in the Kerama Islands, part of the Okinawa chain, is suing the publisher and author of a book charging the military was directly responsible for some of the suicides. The defamation lawsuit, filed in 2005, included a book by Nobel Prize laureate Kenzaburo Oe, who wrote about mass suicides in the Kerama Islands, located just west of the main island of Okinawa.

It’s a charge supported by many residents of the Keramas.

Nobuaki Kinjo, 80, is one of the survivors. In 2001 he told Stars and Stripes that he was 16 years old living on Tokashiki Island when the Americans invaded the Keramas on March 26, 1945, in preparation for the April 1 landing on the main island of Okinawa.

He said that in a state of insanity fueled by the propaganda of Japanese soldiers, he killed his mother and two siblings in a mass suicide the day the Americans invaded.

“We were told the Americans were beasts,” Kinjo said in 2001. “We were told by the soldiers of the Imperial Japanese Army that we should commit suicide rather than be captured.”

Some 329 bodies were later counted in a valley where the villagers pulled the pins on hand grenades passed out by soldiers. He said he survived the mass suicide only because he was convinced by other teens that they should die a “more glorious death” by attacking the Americans. They were armed with sticks, but became disheartened when they came across some Japanese soldiers.

“I felt we had been betrayed,” Kinjo said. “Why were they alive and all the residents had to commit suicide?” They were soon captured by the Americans.

“Besides the issuing of hand grenades, what else do you need to prove the army was responsible for the mass suicides?” asked Kosei Yonemura, 77.

Yonemura, former chief of the Okinawa Board of Education, is from Aka Island, one of the Keramas, and fought with the Japanese Imperial Army in the Boys’ Volunteer Brigade when U.S. forces landed. He was 15 years old.

“The residents in Zamami were driven to commit mass suicide,” he said. “The cause of the tragedy was militarism and nationalistic education. In those days, the Japanese people had been indoctrinated to choose a graceful death by cutting their lives short rather than exposing themselves to humiliation by enemies.”

He called the Ministry of Education’s argument that there may have been no written or historically proven oral order to commit suicide “ridiculous.”

“Such an argument is nothing but an effort to trivialize the irrevocable fact that the mass suicides were a result of the militaristic education of the day,” he said. “We must raise our voices so that Japan today does not follow the same path it went down in the past.”

Toshiaki Shinjo, a teacher at Ginowan High School, told the Okinawa Times that the textbook changes skew the telling of the Battle of Okinawa.

By leaving out mention that the military forcefully encouraged civilians to kill themselves, “the tragedy becomes a beautiful story of people who willingly offered their lives to the nation,” he said.

“In the classrooms it will now be difficult to teach students the reality of Battle of Okinawa,” he said. “It will be more challenging for teachers to teach students true history.”

Chiyomi Sumida contributed to this report.

Monday, February 26, 2007

What happened to $100 billion in WWII loot? Ask Rev Moon

How $100mm in WWII stolen gold passed through post war Japan to the current day Republican Party
---
Feb 26, 2007

Consortium News has a new article out about the incredible amounts of gold and treasure looted from occupied Asia during WWII and how it shaped both post-war Japan AND the right-wing politics here in the US. While it isn't talked about much, it was decided by General McCarthy to use the loot to help finance the emergence of Japan's democracy. It also isn't mentioned to much that many of the key figures of Japan's WWII military government went on to because important post-war politicians in Japan's democracy. This same group has dominated Japan's politics ever since, reflected in the fact that almost every single Prime Minister since 1956 has been a member of the the LPD.

Japan's latest right-wing Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, comes from a political family whose lineage includes Nobusuke Kishi. Kishi was one of General Tojo's closest deputies and a Class A war criminal as a result of his role as one of the top officials in the occupied Manchuria (where much of the war booty came from). He was imprisoned after the war, but but never tried by the International Military Tribunal for the Far East. In 1952, the attempts to purge Japanese of its WWII leaders was rescinded, and Kishi went about building the LPD, and in doing so "managed to maintain contacts with the mainstream while also connecting the non-zaibatsu business community and selected parts of the discredited prewar world of ultra-nationalist politicians and control bureaucrats (tosei kanryo) to the postwar conservative hegemony." Kishi then went on to become Japan's Prime Minister in 1957.

Kishi formation of the LPD was also bankrolled by his allies Yoshio Kodama and Ryoichi Sasakawa, both of whom are major figures in the in the Japanese Criminal Underworld. Another organization that Kodama and Sasakawa helped bankroll just happens to be the good Reverend Sun Myung Moon's criminal enterprise. Both Kodama and Sasakawa also have long-standing ties to ultra-nationalist and fascist groups. They're good folks!

So that's some fun background history on Japanese politics. Now let's turn to this article on Consortium News and take a look at how $100 billion in hidden gold helped shape the post-war era, as well as our own politics here:

Why US Shields Japan's WWII Denials

By Jerry Meldon
February 24, 2007

On Feb. 19, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso took exception to a U.S. congressional resolution introduced by Rep. Mike Honda, D-California, calling on Japan to "formally acknowledge, apologize and accept historical responsibility" for coercing 200,000 Asian women into slavery as "Comfort Women" (wartime prostitutes) for 3.5 million Japanese soldiers. Mr. Aso said he considers the accusation groundless and extremely regrettable.

Six decades after World War II, can it really be that Japanese officials are still distorting history and insulting the Chinese, Koreans, Philippinos and others across Asia whom Hirohito’ s forces savagely brutalized and robbed?

And why does Washington turn a deaf ear?

The answers may be rooted in what transpired behind closed doors in Tokyo when Japan was occupied by the U.S. military in the post-war years .

Sterling and Peggy Seagrave suggest a motive in their eye-opening – and at times stomach-turning – 2003 book, Gold Warriors: America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold. In the war’s immediate aftermath, Gen. Douglas MacArthur, commander-in-chief of Allied occupying forces, secretly joined hands with Japanese war criminals.
...

For those interested, here's a rather lengthy review and overview of Gold Warriors: America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold by Chalmers Johnson.

And here's an interview with one of the authors of the book, Peggy Seagrave: FTR #428 "Gold Warriors"

The article then goes on the describe how MacArthur coddled the very same leaders that led Japan during the war, coddling included some $100 billion in treasure...

...

The cover-up notwithstanding, the Seagraves somehow penetrated the veil of secrecy and reported that the source of the black money that MacArthur bestowed on the Japanese. They wrote that after arriving in Japan, the general’s aides located $100 billion in gold, platinum and other treasures that Hirohito’s forces had systematically plundered from occupied Asian nations and buried deep underground.

When MacArthur reported this to Washington, President Harry S. Truman’s brain trust – which included John McCloy, who as U.S. High Commissioner for Germany would authorize the early release of many Nazi war criminals – decided to devote the fortune to covert operations such as the bankrolling of rightist political parties and the recruitment of war criminals as U.S. intelligence agents for the Cold War that was just beginning.

...

It's worth noting that the GOP's Get-out-the-vote "Ethnic outreach" groups targeting Eastern European communities involved a number of these fascist war criminals (Be sure to use the "search inside this book" option on Amazon...it's a must read book!). It's also worth noting that the GOP used convicted terrorist financiers to court the Muslim vote in Bush's 2000 election. Old habits die hard.

The article then goes on to describe how MacArthur and Willoughby secured the release of Ryoichi Sasakawa and Yakuza god father Yoshia Kodama, two major backers of both Reverend Moon's organization and the LDP. Kodama was also one of the individuals that oversaw the looting of Asia. It also appears that the LPD may have eve secretly funded Nixon's campaign in 1960.

And skipping down in the article, there's this interesting tidbit that relates back to the Iran Contra and how these Japanese crime-lords subsidized GOP candidates back here. And noted the involvement of MacArthur's second-in-command, Maj. General Charles Willoughby, who went on to become an important figure in the devlopment of Cold War right-right uber-hawkishness.

Continuing...

...
Arrested as a Class A war criminal, he made a deal with MacArthur’s intelligence chief, Gen. Charles Willoughby. Kodama handed the CIA $100 million in return for his release from Sugamo Prison. Returning to the underworld, he regained control of the Asian heroin traffic.

According to the Seagraves and others, he also remained a CIA asset until his death in 1984. It was apparently in that capacity that he became a major behind-the-scenes political force, primarily in Japan but, indirectly, across the Pacific as well.
...

Kodama and Sasakawa, together with followers of Rev. Moon, also underwrote the Asian People’s Anti-Communist League (APACL) as a propaganda mill for the dictatorships of Taiwan and South Korea. In 1966, the APACL expanded to become the World Anti-Communist League (WACL) . European neo-nazi terrorists and Latin American death squad leaders attended WACL conferences in the 1970s and 1980s.
...

The previous year, Congress had blocked continued White House funding for the counter-revolutionary Nicaraguan contras. Undaunted, the Reagan administration solicited donations from private right-wing sources, including the two organizations that Kodama and Sasakawa had spawned. WACL and the Unification Church each obliged the Reagan team with generous donations that kept the contras afloat.

In that same period, WACL also contributed heavily in the United States to right-wing candidates running against progressive incumbents. One such beneficiary, WACL conferee Steven Symms, unseated the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Frank Church, D-Idaho. A prominent Vietnam War critic, Church had chaired a 1975 Senate investigation that uncovered CIA plots to assassinate foreign leaders.
...

Relating back to far-Rightist in the GOP, the leader of the US wing of Moon's World Anti-Communist League during the late 70's was a fellow named Roger Pearson, a British "racialist" that not only sat on the editorial board for the Heritage Foundation's Policy Review publication, but also played a prominent role in Mankind Quarterly, a "scientific" publication that provides "academic" research that is quite useful to those that want to prove, oh, that some races are inherently less intelligence than others (The Bell Curve made a number of reference to this publication). Much of the funding for Mankind Quarterly comes from the Pioneer Fund, which Pearson was also involved in (go here to see some interesting info on former director of the Pioneer Fund, Tom Ellis).

Here are two interesting interview with author Kevin Coogan that have lots of info on Pearson and the larger fascistic network he was operating in:
FTR 260: "Further Discussion with Kevin Coogan."
FTR #312: Interview with Kevin Coogan, author of Dreamer of the Day

And here's some more interesting info on how this network of Japanese and US far-Rightists have shaped out politics. On the same day that this Consortium News article came out, the AP put out another lengthy article on the use Japanese war criminals by the US after WWII, which included this description of Major General Willoughby:

...
The informants, many of whom were held as war criminals after Tokyo's surrender and subsequently released, operated under the patronage of Maj. Gen. Charles Willoughby, a German-born, monocle-wearing admirer of Mussolini, a staunch anti-Communist and, as the chief of G-2 in the occupation government, considered second in power only to his boss, Gen. Douglas MacArthur.
...

According to this profile on Willoughby, MacArthur referred his Mussolini-admiring second in command as "My little Fascist"

And here's string a fun-fact that demonstrates how the worlds of folks like Willoughby and Roger Pearson intersect.

Willoughby sat on the board of Young Americans for Freedom (YAF), the youth wing of the John Birch Society started by William F. Buckley (who, on a side note, happens to be a member of the right-wing reactionary Knights of Malta). A former Director of YAF, Lee Edwards, went on to start the American Council for World Freedom (ACWF) in 1970. And the ACWF just happened to be the US wing of Moon's World Anti-Communist League (WACL), although ACWF isn't the same group that Roger Pearson headed in the late 70's. Here's why:

...
United States: The first WACL chapter in the U.S. was the American Council for World Freedom (ACWF) founded in 1970 by Lee Edwards. Edwards was the former director of Young Americans for Freedom, the youth arm of the John Birch Society. (11) John Fisher of the American Security Council served as ACWF's first chairman. The American Security Council is a virulently anticommunist group that originally focused on internal security. It currently heads up the rightwing lobby group the Coalition for Peace Through Strength, which includes among its members a number of members of Congress. (61) In 1973, the ACWF, at the urging of board member Stefan Possony, complained to WACL about the fascist members from Latin America. The report was discredited, but in 1975, ACWF left WACL and its members drifted off to other groups in the New Right. (11)

The second U.S. chapter of WACL (1975-1980), the Council on American Affairs, was headed by noted racialist Roger Pearson. During this period Pearson had strong links to the American Security Council. (61)

...

Heh.

It's also worth noting that Willoughby was a major figure on the American Security Council (ASC)
For those interested, here's a very interesting Dave Emory show that includes info on how some of this war booty was used by folks associated with the John Birch Society to start developing a network private right-wing "security" firms (ie. the predecessors to Blackwater), that were instrumental in the Iran Contra affair:
FTR #451 Petals from the Golden Lily Audio here.

Enjoy!

updated to add this tasty tidbit:
I remember once reading about a massive political slush fund in Japan's Postals system, so I decided to google that here's an interesting NY Times article from 2005:

...

Japan's post offices, which have deep roots throughout the country, have grown into the world's largest financial institution, Japan Post, with $3 trillion in assets. But they have also played another, little understood role here, serving as the bedrock of Japan's postwar political structure and the long-governing Liberal Democratic Party's machine.

...

Postal savings accounts have also earned the trust of Japanese, with 85 percent of households holding such deposits. The assets allowed Japan's leaders to finance national projects, from the war effort before 1945 to the country's postwar high growth.

It was Kakuei Tanaka, postwar Japan's most powerful prime minister and a native of Niigata, who put the money held by the post office to use as a huge slush fund for the Liberal Democrats, said Kent Calder, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. First as postal minister in the 1950's and then as prime minister in the 1970's, Mr. Calder said, Mr. Tanaka protected postal services from oversight from other ministries, so the Liberal Democrats could freely use the assets to reward their backers.

Small businesses that pledged to back the Liberal Democrats were given loans with no collateral and low interest rates from postal services - as long as they had the endorsement of their member of Parliament. Japanese could also take loans up to 90 percent of their deposits at low rates. Special postmasters, as influential members of their communities, played a crucial role by acting as vote-gatherers for the Liberal Democrats.

...

What's interesting about this is that Tanaka was the Japanese Prime Minister when Nixon supposedly return the "m-fund" (the name given for the massive war booty) back to Japan. So perhaps the Japanese postal system, of all places, could be where some of this money resides and continues to influence Japan today.

Here's a Dave Emory show that talks about Tanaka and the m-fund:
FTR-296 The Return of the Rising Sun, The Reemergence of Fascism in Japan Audio Here. So check out this excerpt from a 2001 Financial Times article in that show ""Mischief or Conspiracy?" by Gillian Tett; Financial Times; 4/7-4/8/2001; p. 10.":

...
But if that looks suspicious, the other explanation is far stranger and begins in the early 20th century, when Japan invaded its Asian neighbors and looted vast wealth. After the Second World War, U.S. intelligence forces secretly seized this wealth and later used it to finance covert anti-Communist operations - paying bribes, for example, to rightwing members of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party. Schlei told the Florida court that in the postwar U.S. ‘we came to feel that [such payments] were OK because the Russians were subsidizing the communists and socialists.’ In the 1960’s, the U.S. returned control of this fund - called the ‘M-fund’ - to Japan. Japanese politicians, such as Kakuei Tanaka, a former finance minister and later prime minister, grabbed it, stole large sums and used it for their personal use and to buy political support with bribes. ‘For 25 years Tanaka was known as the money man of Japanese politics. My clients say the reason he had so much money was he got control of this M-fund,’ Schlei said. In the 1960’s, Tanaka tried to hide some of the fund by buying JGB’s and registering them in the name of his crones and supporters. But in 1976, he was sucked into a corruption scandal and convicted of receiving bribes from the U.S. Lockheed company. In the following years, his cronies wanted extra money and, in the late 1970’s, the Tanaka clique decided secretly to print what have become the disputed certificates as part of a complex financial scheme.
...

Curiouser and curiouser...


--ftr23532@yahoo.com

Monday, February 12, 2007

Blast Reported Near U.S. Base in Japan: "Investigators suspected a "guerrilla attack""

Feb 12 11:02 AM US/Eastern

TOKYO (AP) -- An explosion was heard near a U.S. Army base south of Tokyo late Monday and police suspected an attempted attack on the base, Kyodo News agency reported.

The blast was in the area of the U.S. Army's Camp Zama, Kyodo said. The report did not say whether there were injuries or damage.

Police found parts of "launch pad" near the base, Kyodo said, and investigators suspected a "guerrilla attack."

No further details were immediately available.

Friday, December 15, 2006

Runaway globalisation, the dollar and Saudi Arabia

Dec 15, 2006

Nothing shows how globalisation has accelerated at the turn of the century than this graph showing the exports of the 4 biggest exporters: Germany, the USA, China and Japan:

The staggering increase in Chinese exports is all too visible, but the performance of German exporters over the past few years is also quite notable, and the USA and Japan have also enjoyed record export growth.

Trade, free or not, is certainly doing well.

But of course, exports have a flip side - imports.
And the picture here is a bit different:

Germany, Japan and China show significant increases in imports that roughly match their exports. All 3 have healthy surpluses, but the evolution of imports and exports seem correlated. German companies increasingly outsource to Eastern Europe components or sub-assembly, and export the final product, including the "Made in Germany" stamp and implicit or explicit quality check. Same thing with Japanese companies with China or the rest of Asia playing the subcontracting role. There is a debate as to what portion of the value added stays in the country, but it seems that ultimate control is still firmly with the German of Japanese companies. In the case of China, there is a lot of imports of raw materials, and also important of components for assembly and re-export. The graph below, which shows that China actually exports a lot more to Japan and Asia (with which it has trade deficits) than to the US or Europe suggests that China is also increasingly integrated in the regional economy, probably focusing on commoditised goods, either sold on directly to final markets or to other Asian countries for further value addition.

The really odd case is that of the USA. While the above 3 export about 20% more than they import, the USA import a staggering 90% more than they export, which means that their trade deficit is almost equal to their total exports.

So it's not that the USA is not exporting, or that its manufacturing based is hollowing out (the value of industrial production is reaching record levels), it's just that (i) it requires a lot fewer jobs to do so, and (ii) its growth outside the export sector has been a lot slower than that of the rest of the economy, and thus its relative share is declining. And of course that exports are overshadowed by massive imports, themselves fuelled by record debt-driven consumption.

And the problem is not so much imports from Asia (although they do add up, and are growing), but the combination of these with an increasing oil bill.

Meanwhile, strip out exports to the US, and China, Germany and Japan are not so far from balancing their trade. Notably, Europe (led by Germany) is able to balance its trade with OPEC, something the USA is conspicuously failing to do.

Which brings us to the dollar.

We have a combination of two economic trends, globalisation and higher commodity prices, the second one being lead by the first one:

  • globalisation driven by the lure of lower labor costs and the ease of movement of capital has increased offshoring and outsourcing to places like China. That movement is led by large Western companies which move their factories to lower cost (and lower regulation) environments but keep their headquarters, strategic product control - and a large portion of their clients - in the rich world. The locals also benefit to some extent, and are busy building their infrastructure and enjoying the first fruits of prosperity, at least for significant minorities in each country.
  • most other countries, to adapt to that relentless trend, have to cut costs to stay competitive, which has translated, in rich countries, in income stagnation, lowish growth driven by weak consumption, but higher corporate profits;
  • the USA is in a different position. Thanks to the dominant role of the dollar, and its own status as the largest economy, there has been no need for a domestic contraction to remain competitive: consumption, and growth, is fed by debt, which is being granted freely by the rest of the world, and allows US consumers to keep on buying despite suffering from the same downward pressures on wages and income. US corporates get the best of both worlds: buoyant demand and lower costs - and thus a boost to profits, all thanks to Uncle Sam's global credit card.
  • this mechanism depends, of course, on others being willing to lend the USA money. The mercantilist Asian economies did, for a while, (as it protects their own competitivity) but they have slowed down their net purchases. Thankfully, a new player has come to the fore: oil exporters, who have benefitted from the price spikes created by the strong world growth generated by the above cycle, and are accumulating record trade surpluses - mostly, when imports are taken into account, with the USA. Flush with dollars, they have lent these amounts again, and allowed the merry dance to go on further than anyone believed.

But this may come to an end soon. Oil producers are beginning to move away from the dollar.

Oil producing countries have reduced their exposure to the dollar to the lowest level in two years and shifted oil income into euros, yen and sterling, according to new data from the Bank for International Settlements.

The revelation in the latest BIS quarterly review, published on Monday, confirms market speculation about a move out of dollars and could put new pressure on the ailing US currency.

(...)

Russia and the members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the oil cartel, cut their dollar holdings from 67 per cent in the first quarter to 65 per cent in the second.

Meanwhile, they increased their holdings of euros from 20 to 22 per cent, the BIS said. The speed of the shift may help to explain the weakness of the dollar, which recently fell to a 20-month low against the euro and a 14-year low against sterling.

(...)

The review shows that Qatar and Iran, whose foreign exchange policy has sparked widespread market speculation, cut their dollar holdings by $2.4bn and $4bn respectively.

(...)

The last time oil-exporting countries cut their exposure to the dollar – in late 2003 – it pushed the euro to an all-time high against the dollar. Eighteen months ago, the exposure to the dollar of oil producing countries was above 70 per cent.

(...)

The rise in oil prices since 2002 means oil producing countries have amassed a current account surplus of about $500bn, according to the IMF. This is 2½ times the current account surplus of China.

Overall, Opec’s dollar deposits fell by $5.3bn, while euro and yen-denominated deposits rose $2.8bn and $3.8bn, respectively. Placements of dollars by Russians rose by $5bn, but most of their $16bn additional deposits were denominated in euros.

The dollar has suffered weakness because of concerns about global imbalances and the future course of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

And as, currently, the USA need to borrow $2.5 billion per day just to stay afloat, any slowing down in the rythm of purchases of US debt, let alone net sales, will have a direct impact on the rate of the dollar and the overall cycle described above.

It appears inevitable to me that this cycle will have to stop at some point, and it is likely that it is going to take the form of a collapse of the dollar, a collapse of US demand, and a brutal contraction of the export-driven economies of various bits of the world.

How this will play out is, to say the least, uncertain, but the ride is unlikely to not be rough for most parts of the world.

And the countries that hold the cards, beyond China (which has already slowed down on its dollar purchases and is prevented from doing anything rash by its own interest not to rock the boat so as not to threaten the competitivity of its exports) are Russia and Saudi Arabia. Russia is already diverting away from the dollar to a large extent (two thirds of its reserve increase is not dollars), which leaves Saudi Arabia, and its Persian Gulf neighbors, as the last remaining major buyer of dollars or dollar-denominated debt instruments.

Gee, they sure seem to come up often in the news. No wonder they are they getting assertive in Iraq - they effectively hold the US economy hostage today.


Jerome a Paris, France
Email: jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr

Energy banker based, yes, in Paris, France. Writing about energy, economics, international geopolitics, European and French stuff, and whatever else catches my attention. Very strongly pro-European. Liberal in the US, libéral in France and proud of both.

Saturday, December 9, 2006

Rise of far right leads to fear and mistrust for Japan's neighbours

By Evan Williams in Tokyo

Published: 08 December 2006

On the tenth floor of a typical Tokyo office block, ranks of uniformed men with Japanese flags and militaristic insignia are holding a meeting. Reciting a 19th-century Imperial Japanese creed, they call on citizens to courageously sacrifice themselves for the nation and to guard the honour of the Imperial Throne.

They are members of Taiko-Sha, one of Japan's growing number of shadowy right-wing groups. And it is groups like these who are at the forefront of a concerted push to get Japan to move away from its post-war pacifism.

Japan's police are calling it right-wing terrorism and say such groups are on the rise. Under the banner of "direct physical action" the Taiko-Sha are accused of carrying out fire-bombings, beatings, stabbings, shootings, and even their own ritual suicides, to make a political point.

"Using violence is a personal decision," says one middle-ranking Taiko-Sha member, who asked not to be named. "But if the interests of the Japanese nation requires us to use that violence then it is justified."

For the past 60 years, successive Japanese governments have accepted the pacifist constitution imposed after the Second World War, while right-wing nationalist groups have been ignored as fringe extremists.

But a resurgent nationalism among some mainstream politicians and North Korea's recent nuclear testing have meant right-wing groups are now being listened to at the highest levels, and many of the policies they have been seeking are now on the government's agenda. One issue of particular concern for Japan's neighbours is nuclear weapons. For the first time in 60 years, Japan is preparing to discuss the acquisition of such technology.

Its new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has also declared his intention to change the constitution so that Japan can send troops into overseas combat for the first time since 1945. Senior officials insist the changes are to allow Japan to better meet modern demands, especially as an active member of the United Nations.

But a militarily resurgent Japan is creating nervous reactions from neighbours, who remember the millions killed in Japan's war-time expansion.

Such nationalism has already sparked street protests from teachers who are resisting orders to force students to sing the national anthem and salute the flag.

"If you look at all the laws they passed in the past three years it is preparation for war like we did 60 years ago," says Yumi Kikuchi, a writer who was attending a meeting in central Tokyo recently to protest against moves to the right.

All of this is exactly what Japan's influential and well-organised right-wing movement has been demanding for years. Using trucks with loud-speakers, the right-wingers are a menacing sight in the smart shopping districts of central Tokyo on a Saturday morning.

In February this year one of Japan's leading liberal politicians, Koichi Kato, had his house burnt down in an arson attack by right-wing extremists. "This aggressive nationalism can be appealing to people who are trying to find something and this attack is an example of the growing appeal of that right-wing activity," said Mr Kato.

'Japan: Red Sun Rising" is broadcast tonight at 7.35 on Channel 4's Unreported World