Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Rate decisions poised to squeeze dollar

By Richard Beales in New York Mon May 7, 12:56 PM ET

The dollar slipped against leading currencies yesterday as traders looked ahead to three central bank interest rate decisions due on Wednesday and Thursday.

The euro took a modest boost from the victory of market-friendly Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential elections, analysts said.

With a London holiday contributing to subdued activity, most traders were focused on this week's central bank meetings. US, UK and eurozone rate decisions are expected to deliver a combination of news that is negative for the dollar, already softer after a below-par US jobs report on Friday.

"The softness of US employment data has spurred some talk that the [Federal Open Market Committee] will acknowledge the economic slowdown in more concrete terms and again soften its risk assessment," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The FOMC meets on Wednesday and is expected to keep the overnight Fed funds rate steady at 5.25 per cent.

Any hint that the Federal Reserve is becoming more worried about decelerating growth, or less concerned about persistent inflation, is likely to weigh on the dollar.

In Europe, the stronger economic growth picture and potentially rising interest rates could lift sterling and the euro against the dollar. The Bank of England is widely expected to lift UK rates by a quarter point to 5.5 per cent on Thursday.

On the same day, most analysts expect the European Central Bank to foreshadow a June rate rise while leaving rates unchanged at 3.75 per cent.

"Note that the ECB is comfortable with a strengthening euro to the extent that it helps combat inflation as long as it poses no challenges for exporters," said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange analyst at CMC Markets.

The euro rose 0.2 per cent against the dollar to $1.3618 by late morning in New York, still short of the all-time high of about $1.3680.

At $1.9952, the pound was less than 0.2 per cent higher compared with Friday's close. The yen strengthened more than 0.2 per cent to trade at Y119.90 to the dollar.

Commodity-based currencies were among Monday's biggest gainers, with the Australian dollar, South African rand and Canadian dollar all outperforming.

The loonie, the Canadian currency, was nearly 0.5 per cent up on the dollar at $1.1027. The currency has gained about 7 per cent in the past three months.

The strength stems from the commodity-driven economy and a shift in thinking on Canadian interest rates, according to Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

"The market was thinking about rate cuts, but now it has started to toy with the idea of rate hikes," he said.

Monday, April 30, 2007

MARKET'S RISE TIED TO DOLLAR'S DIVE

HOLY DOW! MARKET'S RISE TIED TO DOLLAR'S DIVE

By TERRY KEENAN

April 29, 2007 -- THIS week the Dow Jones in dustrial average hit 13,000 for the first time ever, and the U.S. dollar fell to new record lows against the euro and the pound.

The former milestone was greeted with media fanfare and scores of headlines, while the latter garnered little attention at all.

But the two are closely connected - an anemic dollar means a lot more than pricey cappuccinos and hotel rooms for American travelers to Europe; it's also translating into powerful earnings for the very companies that make up the Dow - big blue-chip multinationals who get a large chunk of their profits from overseas.

It's also why Wall Street has clocked nearly 40 record closing highs in the last six months, despite sobering news from the housing market and a big deceleration in the domestic economy. The wall of worry that Wall Street has been climbing is the same one the dollar has been descending.

Stocks such as IBM tell the story. While Big Blue saw domestic sales rise a mere 1 percent last quarter, sales in Europe, Asia and the Middle East soared by more than 12 percent.

In fact, the incredible shrinking dollar is packing a powerful two-pronged boost for the Dow. Not only do the Dow 30 companies now derive a record 48 percent of their sales from overseas, the rest of the world is growing much faster than the U.S. In other words, it's a good time to be an exporter with a weak currency.

And the latest numbers bear that out: Of the 20 Dow stocks reporting for the first three months of the year, 17 noted the positive currency effects of the weaker greenback. It's the key reason S&P profits look to come in with gains of better than 7 percent - more than twice initial expectations.

But if the dollar becomes too cheap, our foreign friends could get uneasy and decide to park their money elsewhere, sending stocks into a swoon.

Wall Street loves a weak dollar, unless it becomes too weak, then it becomes a "dollar crisis."

Even with the once-almighty greenback at new lows, we're not there yet. But don't forget the dollar the next time you're checking out the Dow.

TERRY KEENAN is anchor of Cashin' In, an investing program that appears on Fox News Channel on Saturdays at 11:30 a.m. E-mail terry.keenan@foxnews.com.


Saturday, April 21, 2007

Japan Cautiously Mulls Dumping Dollar

MoneyNews
Japan Mulls Moving Reserves from Dollar

Thursday, April 19, 2007 ABU DHABI -- Japan is cautious about shifting its foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar for fear of triggering a slide in the U.S. currency, Tokyo's top financial diplomat, Hiroshi Watanabe, said on Thursday.

At around $900 billion, Japan's reserves, held predominantly in dollars, are the world's second largest after China's and were built up mainly in 2003 and 2004 as the Bank of Japan bought dollars to check the Japanese currency's rise.

The dollar's slide against other currencies over the past three years has prompted central banks around the world to consider reducing their exposure to U.S. assets. The dollar tumbled to a two-year low against the euro this month.

"Most countries are diversifying their investments to non-U.S. dollar assets. But in the case of Japan, we are still cautious about shifting from the dollar to other currencies," Watanabe said in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates.

"If we do that it goes towards the depreciation of the dollar. So why should we trigger such a stupid action?" Watanabe, vice finance minister for international affairs, said.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Flight from U.S. dollar gathers strength

Europe new magnet for higher investor returns
Jacqueline Thorpe
Financial Post, with files from Reuters
Foreign currency traders have been downgrading the U.S. dollar, as the belief is the outlook for corporate profits is higher in the eurozone.
CREDIT: Kieran Doherty, Reuters
Foreign currency traders have been downgrading the U.S. dollar, as the belief is the outlook for corporate profits is higher in the eurozone.

The assault against the U.S. dollar intensifed yesterday as the greenback slumped to historic lows against currencies as diverse as the U.K. pound and the Polish zloty amid growing conviction among investors higher returns lie beyond U.S. borders.

While many analysts say the greenback will continue to fall against many currencies, a question mark remains over what it will do against the Canadian dollar. The loonie joined in the greenback assault yesterday, rising US0.19? to a five-month high of US88.66?.

"An IMF forecast that was released last week showed for the first time in 37 years you will get 5% global growth and the U.S. accounting for less than 10% of that growth -- half its normal share of global GDP," said Stefane Marion, assistant chief economist at National Bank in Montreal. "You've never seen the global economy growing at 5% with the U.S. growing ... only 2.2%."

The catalyst for this week's dramatic move was figures that raised chances for higher interest rates outside the United States, while cutting them at home.

Britain reported inflation soared to 3.1%, forcing Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, to write an explanatory letter to the U.K. Treasury and propelling the pound to US$2.0133 yesterday, its highest since 1992. In contrast, U.S. core inflation was weaker than expected.

The euro, meanwhile, shot up to US$1.3660, its strongest in two years, bringing it within 60 ticks of its December, 2004, record.

Europe is becoming an increasing attraction for investors.

"Within the last few weeks European equities have reached a greater market cap, when you include Russia in the equation, than the U.S." said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto. "Certainly European bond markets are deep and liquid and offer a viable alternative to the U.S."

"Another factor might be this issue of [U.S.] protectionism that has come up," Mr. Osborne said.

A Merrill Lynch survey of global money managers released yesterday showed a net 38% believed the outlook for corporate profits was most favourable in the eurozone, while a net 42% believed the outlook to be the worst in the United States.

"This divergence between the two regions is the biggest since April, 2001," Merrill said. "What is more, investors see the eurozone as being the most undervalued equity market, and the U.S. as the most overvalued. So far this year, eurozone equities have outperformed the U.S. market by more than 6% on a common-currency basis."

The greenback not only wilted against the euro yesterday. It reached its lowest level against the zloty since November, 1996, and it fell to near two-year lows against the Hungarian forint and hit a 17-year low against the Australian dollar and a 22-year low against the New Zealand Kiwi.

While the United States has been worrying about a submerging housing market and slowing business spending, emerging Europe has been revelling in strong data and growing integration with Germany, France and Britain. Commodity currencies, like Australia, New Zealand and Canada, have been flying high on soaring prices for gold, and metals and renewed vigour in the oil price.

Underlying the weakness in the U.S. dollar has been its persistent current account deficit, which reached US$783-billion, or 5.8% of GDP last year. Foreign exchange markets are wary of current account deficits because it means having to borrow from abroad to fund the extra consumption.

"Our overall view is pretty much bearish the dollar structurally," said Steven Englander, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy for Merrill Lynch in New York. "We don't think U.S. assets are going to be attractive enough to get the kind of overfunding they need to have as large current account deficit that they have, plus to get the dollar to appreciate."

jthorpe@nationalpost.com

Friday, April 13, 2007

Dollar slide accelerates

By Richard Blackden

Last Updated: 8:31pm BST 13/04/2007

  • Super-euro may spark a currency war while French battle the ECB
  • Audio: Barclays' currency expert on why sterling will hit $2

    The dollar's slide against most of the world's currencies gained pace today as dealers worried over the outlook for the US economy.

    Sterling and the euro are leading the charge against the embattled dollar, as interest rates are still expected to head higher in both Europe and the UK.

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    After a string of rate increases in the US in the past two years, the Federal Reserve has recently indicated it may pause or even cut borrowing costs. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank, on the other hand, are still widely expected to raise interest rates.

    Many analysts reckon that global currencies are set for a major realignment as Europe takes over as the engine of world growth and the US starts to trip, prompting investors to sell dollar-denominated assets.

    Ian Stannard, a currency analyst at BNP Paribas, said: "Dollar weakness has been building over the last few days.


    "There is a growing recognition among policymakers that things are starting to slowdown in the US." Mr Stannard expects sterling to breach the $2 mark.

    Sterling soared almost a cent against the dollar to $1.9864, the euro strengthened to $1.3543 and the Japanese yen was also higher, at 118.26.

    With many believing the dollar has to weaken further to ease its trade and current account deficits, free-floating currencies such as sterling, the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar are taking the brunt of the currency's slide.

    Asia's major currencies, including the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan, are either managed or fixed against the dollar.

  • CHART
  • Thursday, April 5, 2007

    Average gold price to hit record high in 2007

    Wed Apr 4, 2007 12:09 PM BST

    By Atul Prakash

    LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices will set a record high this year in terms of their annual average and may scale new absolute peaks on a weaker dollar outlook, a slowdown in the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions, a report said on Wednesday.

    Precious metals consultant GFMS said in its Gold Survey 2007, which marks the 40th anniversary of its annual report, that worries over high oil prices and inflation might resurface should the United States decide to ratchet up the pressure on Iran.

    "It's looking pretty certain that the record in terms of the annual average, $614.50 (an ounce) back in 1980, is going to fall this year," GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said in a statement.

    The average gold price was $603.77 an ounce last year.

    "I would also be far from surprised if this year we saw the market moving above the 2006 high of $725. Quite whether we would then get close to the all time high of $850 is more doubtful, but I would certainly expect the upward price trend to continue on into 2008."

    Firm gold prices so far this year, the acceptance of higher floor prices by physical buyers and a further, albeit smaller, decline in gold supply were also expected to boost investor confidence in the metal, the report said.

    Spot gold was around $665.50 on Wednesday, up five percent from the end of 2006. Prices hit a nine-month high of $689 in late February, near a 26-year peak for the spot price of $730 in May last year.

    GFMS expected a drop in scrap supply in the first half of 2007 and subdued selling by central banks, which was likely to offset a modest rise in mine output this year.

    Global mine production fell 3 percent to a 10-year low of 2,471 tonnes in 2006, with the maximum fall recorded in Asia despite China lifting output by 8 percent. GFMS forecast world production rising between one and two percent in 2007.

    Central bank sales fell by 51 percent to 328 tonnes in 2006, resulting in a five percent drop in total gold supply to 3,906 tonnes. GFMS said net sales had continued in 2007 and might persist.

    JEWELLERY DEMAND AT 15-YEAR LOWS

    World gold demand fell by five percent to 3,906 tonnes in 2006 from a year earlier, mainly because of a 428-tonne slump in jewellery offtake to a 15-year low of 2,280 tonnes. Jewellery accounted for 58 percent of global gold demand last year.

    "The chief architect of the decline was developments in the gold price, not only in terms of the absolute level but also the degree of price volatility," GFMS said.

    Just three countries -- India, Turkey and Italy -- accounted for half the gross decline in total jewellery demand in 2006.

    "Looking ahead to this year, price developments will remain a key factor in determining jewellery fabrication ... However, the decline this year, in percentage terms, is unlikely to match the 16 percent fall seen in 2006," the report said.

    The report noted that gold dehedging accelerated last year, with a cut of 373 tonnes from the global hedge book. Total outstanding forward sales, loans and the delta hedge against options positions at the end of 2006 was at 1,364 tonnes.

    Hedging allows producers to lock in prices for future output but can backfire if the market rises above the hedged price.

    GFMS said gold dehedging might exceed 300 tonnes this year as producers were bullish.

    Interest in gold exchange-traded funds and over-the-counter market also grew last year, but speculative activity in the main commodity exchanges declined. The gold market was dominated by institutional players and high net worth individuals, it said.

    Saturday, March 31, 2007

    Sadr City: Tripwire to the Iraq Inferno

    Related

    Sadr lambasts US for Iraq woes
    Sadr calls for massive anti-US demonstrations in Najaf on April 9(arabic).

    Sadr City: Tripwire to the Iraq Inferno

    New America Media , News Analysis, Amir Soltani Sheikholeslami, Posted: Mar 31, 2007

    Editor’s Note: In an effort to bring the Iraq war to a close, Iranian writer Amir Soltani Sheikholeslami argues that President Bush has set a tripwire for a much larger one.

    President Bush’s security plan for Baghdad can triggera dormant Shia insurgency that will expand the war in Iraq into Iran. Although the plan is barely a fewweeks old, there are eerie, desperate echoes of thepremature gloating of “mission accomplished” days.Once again, the administration is compensating for itsstrategic myopia with military blunders.

    Forget the Iraq fiasco. Prepare for the Iraq inferno.

    The troop surge has swept into Sadr city, a suburb ofBaghdad ruled by Muqtada Sadr’s Shia Mahdi army. Recently the chief U.S. military spokesman, Maj. Gen.William Caldwell, announced that Muqtada Sadr has fledIraq. Linking the war in Iraq to tensions with Iran he declared - without offering proof - that “all indications are, in fact, that he is in Iran.” With a Shia population larger than that of Lebanon, the surgethreatens to trigger a Shia insurgency in Sadr city. This means that Sadr city is now the eastern front of the war on terror. Any abduction, assault or massacre of American troops there could serve as the trigger for launching the “Iran plan”, pre-emptive orretaliatory military strikes designed to decapitate the Islamic Republic and prevent the rising power of what the U.S. government calls “the Shia crescent.”

    Simultaneous concerns make Sadr city a tripwire. TheU.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic impasse overIran’s nuclear program, the Arab-Israeli peaceprocess, Iran’s support for Hezbullah and Hamas, and more recently, allegations that Iran is supplying theIraqi insurgency with sophisticated roadside bombs that kill American troops. As a result, any shift, real or imagined, in regional tectonics can triggerthe Sadr city tripwire. With perception shaping facts and fear driving policy, the slightest spark in Sadrcity can get magnified into a firestorm that will burn much more than Baghdad.

    Although Iranian officials have vehemently denied it, the legal justification for a military strike against Iran will be the allegation that Iranian leaders are providing a terrorist base for Muqtada Sadr and the Mahdi Army. Providing a terrorist base for Bin Ladenand al-Qaeda was the argument used to justify the invasion of Afghanistan.

    Single-handedly, President Bush has converted Muqtada Sadr into a giant. A political neophyte dismissed by Iraqis as a zatut (an ignoramous), lacking religious standing or academic credentials, condemned for issuing fatwas sanctifying looting in Baghdad and suspected of the murder of Ayatollah Khoei’s son, Muqtada Sadr would not have a tongue or a leg to stand on were it not for his ability to conceal his own crimes under a vast pool of blood. After every military confrontation-- even those where the Mahdi’s army incurred heavy losses in Najaf and Karbala in 2004--he has been able to capitalize on the corpse of the dead to boost his power, popularity and prestige. Poor political and military decisions have provided Sadr and the insurgency with the arguments and ammunition—the martyrs--to undermine the legitimacy of the much cooler, albeit Iranian, Grand Ayatollah Sistani.

    Frankly, it is not American troops but Ayatollah Sistani, who has kept the peace in Iraq by preventing its descent into a full-scale civil and religious war. He rejected Mr. Bremer’s plan to rule Iraq by fiat with a fatwa drawing on his religious authority to convert the price of Islamic ideals of innocence and justice into constitutional principles investing the state with a fig leaf of political legitimacy. He has stood between the US military and Iraq’s Shia majority by drawing on his immense following to put a lid on Muqtada Sadr’s extremism.

    The Ayatollah ejected Sadr and his turbulent army out of Najaf with a local “security plan” that flooded the city with peaceful demonstrations. He risked his religious legitimacy and standing to sanctify a tenuous democracy and peace by facing down aggression and stupidity from all sides. Without his calls for restraint and reconciliation, everyone in Iraq—Sunni and Shia, Arab and Kurd, American and British--would be drowning under a sea of blood. He is Iraq's Gandhi, capable of transcending sectarian hatred with his spiritual authority. Yet, despite the presence of a religious figure, a Gandalf who has held not only Iraq, but life itself intact, with nothing more than the authority invested in his religious staff, President Bush appears intent on pushing the Ayatollah, Iraq and the region into a deeper abyss with his plan to have American soldiers leap into a hornet’s nest—Sadr city.

    By risking a confrontation with Muqtada Sadr and Iran, the Bush administration is making Sadr city the focal point for a full scale Shia insurgency. He will trigger a civil, regional and ideological war which Ayatollah Sistani and conservative clerics in Najaf have been able to prevent. A massacre in Sadr city would permit Muqtada Sadr and his death squads to undermine the religious authority of Ayatollah Sistani and shatter the political authority of Prime Minister Al-Maliki. As the political and military base of the Mahdi’s army, Sadr city will become the seat of resistance against US military occupation. Baghdad and Basra, and quite possibly Najaf and Karbala would get drawn into an insurgency that would draw Iran and the U.S. closer to war. Without barriers separating extremists from the majority of Iraq’s Shia, the U.S.’s military and political position in Iraq would crumble. Everyone would lose.

    A sudden U.S. panic attack in the heart of Baghdad is a poor substitute for a diplomatic and political transition based on a dignified and deliberate withdrawal plan that has local, regional and international support. A setback in Sadr city would present Bush with two choices: a precipitous withdrawal that would draw regional powers into open confrontation in Iraq, or a rapid regional escalation that would do to the U.S. what the invasion of Afghanistan did to the Soviet empire. Either way, Bush is leading America into another dangerous trap—a tripwire that can make faith in the dollar and democracy plummet faster than the ruble and communism.

    Sunday, March 25, 2007

    ‘IMF to urge depreciation in dollar

    Related
    Operation Corporate Freedom: The IMF and World Bank in Iraq
    ---
    BERLIN: The International Monetary Fund will say further depreciation by the U.S. dollar is needed to help correct global imbalances in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung said on Saturday.

    Quoting from a draft of the WEO, the paper said the Washington-based fund argued “extraordinarily aggressively” for a correction in exchange rates, above all so as to reduce the massive U.S. current account deficit.

    The dollar, which slid to a 2-year low against the euro last week, should continue to depreciate in the mid-term, while the yen, the Chinese yuan and currencies of oil-exporting countries in the Middle East should all appreciate, the draft WEO said.

    The WEO, which is due to be published in mid-April, will add that there is no great need for further interest rate increases by the European Central Bank, according to the paper.

    Thanks to solid growth in the 13-nation euro zone, the ECB would not create problems by raising its main lending rate to about 4.0 percent from 3.75 percent at present, the IMF said. reuters

    Wednesday, March 21, 2007

    Asia must prepare for dollar collapse, says bank

    'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'

    East Asian economies need to prepare for a possible collapse of the US dollar, the Asian Development Bank says.

    ADB: Possibility of a dollar collapse small but fallout huge

    The warning comes as the US trade deficit reaches a record high and global interest rates continue to rise.

    Masahiro Kawai, the ADB's head of regional economic integration, said on Tuesday: "Any shock hitting the US economy or the global market may change investors' perceptions given the existing global current account imbalance.

    "Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared."

    He said because of the highly interdependent nature of East Asian economies, if countries worked together to allow their currencies to collectively appreciate against a tumbling dollar then the cost of adjustment would be spread.

    "The possibility of a US dollar collapse or sharp decline may be small at this point but it would generate very significant turmoil so East Asian economies ... ought to be ready for that."

    The Manila-based ADB is working on several indices of Asian currencies that could be helpful to monitor exchange rate movements in the case of a sharp dollar decline, although its main intention is to help develop regional bond markets.

    Political sensitivities

    However, the ADB is still trying to decide which currencies to include in this Asian Currency Unit (ACU) amid political sensitivities about the inclusion of the Taiwan dollar given China's claim over the island.

    The ADB had apparently been aiming to launch the ACU - a weighted basket of Asian currencies - before the bank's annual meeting in May, but Kawai said this would not be possible.

    He said there was no specific launch date yet but hopefully it would be unveiled "in the next few months".

    But Kawai played down suggestions that the ACU could foreshadow a single Asian currency like the European Currency Unit (ECU), which existed for two decades before the creation of the euro in 1999.

    He said: "The ECU had an official status but the ACU has no such official status. We are not in the position to decide whether this should become a real currency or not."

    Thursday, March 15, 2007

    US Dollar Hit By Another Meltdown in the Dow

    Japanese Yen Soars as Carry Trade Liquidation Resumes • New Zealand Dollar Sees Majors Losses Against the US Dollar and Yen

    Wednesday, March 14 - 2007 at 01:49


    US Dollar -The problems in the sub-prime lending market have become too much for even the most optimistic trader to handle. New Century Financial Corp, the poster child of the meltdown in the sub-prime lending sector had its shares suspended from trading on the NYSE today and will most likely be de-listed in the near future. Although the market had become somewhat accustomed to hearing about the problems at New Century Financial, it was not prepared to hear that mortgage delinquencies hit a 4 year high in the fourth quarter. In the sub-prime market, delinquencies reached 13.33 percent and even though non-subprime borrowers are far less likely to be delinquent on their loans, the rate has been growing since the first quarter of 2006. With the housing market just beginning to turn, the worst may be yet to come. The Dow has fallen close to 245 points or 2 percent today, marking the biggest one day sell-off since the 3.3 percent move on February 27th. Risk aversion has returned to markets with traders liquidating all of their risky and high yielding positions. Carry trades have been hit the worst with NZD/JPY falling by 2.2 percent, AUD/JPY falling by 1.51 percent and USD/JPY falling by 1.12 percent. In addition to the problems in the sub-prime sector, consumer spending fell short of expectations for the month of February. Headline sales rose a meager 0.1 percent while sales excluding autos fell 0.1 percent. This is the first drop in sales excluding autos since Oct 2006 and suggests that first quarter GDP will be particularly weak since sales were flat in the month of January. Cold weather and a downturn in the housing market are to blame as sales of furniture and building materials slip significantly. Weaker consumer spending at a time when the sub-prime lending sector is in disarray could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as this summer. With both stock market and housing market wealth of Americans slipping, future growth looks extremely bleak. At this point, the US dollar has few reasons to rally but any further extension lower may not come until Thursday when we have producer prices, net foreign purchases of US Securities and the Philadelphia Fed index on the docket.

    Euro - On a day when we have seen a massive liquidation of many currency pairs, the fact that the Euro has been able to remain unchanged is quite remarkable. The strength in the German ZEW survey is sure to have helped. Even though analyst sentiment deteriorated between February and March, the deterioration was far less than expected as concerns about the Value Added Tax increase and the recent interest rate hike remains limited. In today's market, it is all about relative performance and right now the outlook for the US economy is far more concerning than the outlook for the Eurozone. In fact, Bundesbank President Weber joined ECB's Liebscher in saying that the risks to price stability remain strong and because of that, the ECB will need to raise rates again. Compare that to the Federal Reserve who may need to cut interest rates before August and we have a very clear explanation of why the EUR/USD is still holding strong. Eurozone industrial production and French and Italian consumer prices are due for release tomorrow. None of these reports will be particularly market moving. Traders will have their eyes pinned on USD/JPY and the US stock market to see if both will continue to sell-off.

    British Pound - The British pound has sold off against everything in sight as the pair comes under the pressure of carry trade liquidation. Having been one of the market's favorite carry trade currencies to invest in over the past few years, it has also become one of the first to be sold in this wave of carry trade liquidation. UK data released this morning was mixed. The RICS house price balance reported the weakest growth in prices in 9 months. Although this is the first of many indexes to report softer price growth, traders should not completely ignore it. The key to figuring out whether the BoE will raise rates again this year is housing. It is important to keep on top of how the housing market is faring because it is a key component to their decision making. Looking ahead, we have unemployment data tomorrow. The report is expected to be positive for the British pound with the number of claimants dropping and average hourly earnings rising.

    Japanese Yen - Once again, the Japanese Yen has stolen the show by ending the day with the biggest movements in the currency market. Over the past few weeks, if you want trade volatility, you have to be in the Yen. With no economic data released last night, the move today was completely driven by the liquidation. The Dow and USD/JPY relationship remains very much intact, but even though USD/JPY sold off first, the sharp reversal in the Dow appears to have exacerbated the sell-off in USD/JPY. We will probably see a bit more liquidation since prior waves of carry trade selling over the past few years have resulted in an average loss of 8 percent. So far, USD/JPY has fallen approximately 4.5 percent. We are only expecting the revision to industrial production tonight. There are no Japanese data of consequence until the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting next week so flows will continue to drive the fluctuations in the Yen.

    Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) - The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars have all sold off significant today as traders liquidated all risky assets. Even though the market was very bearish US dollars today, they were even more bearish the Australian and New Zealand dollars since these pairs offer a higher interest rate than the US and because of that, they have been the preferred carry trade currencies for the market. The New Zealand dollar fell 1.45 percent against the US dollar while the Australian dollar fell 0.57 percent. The stronger Australian business confidence and job advertisement reports may have helped to limit the slide in the Aussie. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar dropped because traders were concerned that the down turn in the US housing market and the US economy as a whole could have a spillover effect on the Canadian economy. Looking ahead, we are expecting New Zealand manufacturing activity and Australian consumer confidence tonight. These reports will most likely do little to shift the current market sentiment.

    Monday, March 5, 2007

    The Lesson - US Treasury: Dollar bills have no value of themselves

    The Lesson
    By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
    February 26, 2007

    "[Dollar bills] have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy."
    – from the website of the U.S. Treasury

    Dollar bills actually have no value... And our government actually tells us that... right here.

    But somehow, we believe they do. We save dollars like they're valuable... After your home, dollars in the bank are probably your second-largest asset. People seem to be completely oblivious to the fact that their second-biggest possession of wealth has absolutely no inherent value.

    While we don't think much about this, it drives Burt Blumert crazy...

    Since I'm out in San Francisco, I went to visit Burt. Burt, if you don't know, started Camino Coin back in 1959. With a half century of experience dealing in money and gold, Burt knows a thing or two about the topic. Whenever I'm in San Francisco, I stop in and see him. He's two minutes from the airport.

    Burt Blumert has given me The Lesson before. But, like it or not, I was going to get it again. And besides, my publisher, Porter Stansberry, had never had The Lesson.

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    We’re prepared to save you literally thousands of dollars on all the research Steve currently publishes – including two new services to come in 2007.

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    -----------------------------------

    It’s a simple bit of show-and-tell about the value of money from Burt, with some startling conclusions...


    Burt took us back to the "silver room" in his office, where silver bars are strewn around like discarded Kleenexes. He pulled out a "$20 Liberty" gold coin that looks something like this one to the right:

    "In my lifetime, this coin really was worth $20," Burt told us.

    It's brilliant. It's big. And it's heavy. $20 gold coins like this contain just under an ounce of gold. Today, an ounce of gold is worth around $680 dollars.

    A $20 bill is worth $20. But a $20 gold coin could be melted down for $660 worth of gold.

    This coin was money in Burt's lifetime... It is a real representation of the destruction in the value of a dollar during that lifetime.

    This is the first part of Burt's visual lesson... "Steve, this destruction of wealth will continue. It is inevitable. Fortunately, you can protect yourself from it. And you must."

    Burt's show-and-tell continued... Next up was a gold certificate...

    Gold coins have been money for centuries. Yet gold certificates started to appear in the U.S. in the late 1880s. Certificates were fine... they represented gold coins in a vault. But they were one step away from the real gold. Burt pulled out a $20 bill here from 1928 to make another point:


    While it looks almost identical to recent $20 bills, there is a crucial difference... across the top in small letters, it says: "This Certifies that There Have Been Deposited in the Treasury of the United State of America" then across the bottom "Twenty Dollars in Gold Coin Payable to the Bearer on Demand."

    The next chapter in the story was far more drastic. Gold ownership was outlawed in the U.S. in the 1930s. (No kidding. You were forced to turn in your gold.) The United States, in essence, moved to a silver standard.

    At first, silver certificates circulated, with the same promise as the gold certificate above. But the degradation of the promise to pay continued... Then, the promise took out the portion about being payable in coin. By the 1960s, they were no longer redeemable in silver.

    The visual lesson continues. "Steve, please pull a dollar out of your wallet... What promise is written on it? What does that dollar entitle you to? What, exactly is stored in a vault somewhere that you have a claim to?"

    The answer, of course, is "absolutely nothing." End of visual lesson.

    Even the U.S. Treasury admits it. "Federal Reserve notes [dollar bills] are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything. The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy."

    In the last five years, the price of gold has more than doubled. Said another way, it takes twice as many paper dollars to buy an ounce of gold today than it did just a few years ago.

    At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened by about 30% versus the other major currencies of the world.

    Why are dollars your second-biggest holding?

    You really must sell some worthless paper and own the real asset, or as Burt would likely argue, the only real money – gold.

    I have recommended my readers buy their raw gold coins from Burt Blumert for many years now. Burt's track record of taking good care of my readers is just fantastic.

    Burt does a great job. I don't know how he makes any money at it... For example, he sells coins, like the beautiful 1904 Liberty $20 gold coin, for just 7% over it's meltdown value. These things are not typical gold coins that could have been minted yesterday. This is a 100-year-old coin.

    With that tiny premium over melt for this piece of history, Burt has to pay his employees, keep the lights on, pay taxes, etc. I don't know how he can sell them at a 7% premium and make a profit. But I'm thankful he does it for my readers.

    You don't have to be a paid subscriber of mine to get this deal from Burt. You can give him a call at 800-348-8001 or burtblumert@comcast.net He also has a web page here:

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/burt-gold.html

    Burt's lesson is powerful. A dollar has no value, and can be printed indiscriminately by the government. But governments can't print gold.

    If you don't own any gold, or don't own enough, Burt is a good man to call...

    Good investing,

    Steve

    Monday, February 26, 2007

    Every time Cheney opens his twisted lip the dollar takes a powder

    Related
    Bush Snr's major involvement in the gold business
    ---
    Feb 26, 2007

    That's Just My Opinion

    By Mike Whitney

    Gold traders love Dick Cheney. Every time he opens his twisted lip and barks out another threat to Iran, the dollar takes a powder while gold futures shoot to the moon. Maybe that’s the way Cheney likes it. After all, he dumped about $25 million in euro-bonds before he took office. Judging by the way he and brother-Bush have flogged dollar, he must have doubled his investment by now.

    The old greenback has dropped nearly 35% in the last 6 years while gold has just about tripled. In 2000 the dollar was a trim, sinewy pillar of strength. It entered the ring like a young Mohammed Ali; darting to and fro while pummeling ihis prey with quick laser-like blows that were barely visible. Now, the greenback plods along like a 60 year old Rocky Balboa, wheezing heavily and reeling with every punch; waiting for the one roundhouse that will leave him staring up from the canvas, spitting up broken teeth and blood.

    Ooooh; that hurts.

    The dollar’s in a heap o’ trouble and Cheney is doing his level-best to make sure that it hits the skids before he leaves office. Just yesterday the snappish Vice President said, "It would be a serious mistake if a nation like Iran were to become a nuclear power. Then he added ominously, "All options are still on the table."

    That oughta put the dollar on life support, eh?

    At present, the rest of the world is really wondering if dollar’s going to pull through. Central banks in Europe, Japan, and China have increased money supply and kept rates low in order to prop up the droopy greenback. But that won’t last. Eventually, they’ll all have to raise rates to slow inflation and stop equity bubbles from going haywire. (The Chinese stock market increased by a whopping 140% in one year. They probably don’t want a Dot.com-type meltdown like we had in the US.) Regrettably, once interest rates start to rise, the dollar slip quickly from view leaving only fetid trail of vapor behind.

    It’s astonishing how cavalier Cheney and the gaggle of racketeers at the Federal Reserve have been regarding the dollar. After all, why kill the goose that lays the golden egg?

    As the world’s “reserve currency” the fed can simply print out a couple trillion whenever it comes up short and bring back boatloads of sleek, Chinese manufactured goods or tankers weighed down with petroleum to power our boxcar-sized SUVs. Or, maybe, Bernanke would rather crank-out another $12 billion in crisp $100 bills, shrink-wrapped and loaded onto pallets and sent off to Iraq where they can vanish in the black hole of corporate malfeasance.

    No prob-Bob.

    But what happens when the rest of the world sees that the “stewards of the global economic system” (that’s us) are nothing but a bunch of Texas yahoos, religious zealots, and war-mongering boneheads?

    See, the funny thing about money is that it requires confidence in the provider that he will honor his part of the deal and operate in good faith. Otherwise, no one would dream of exchanging valuable resources and manufactured goods for silly, green tokens of credit-based fiat money with squiggly writing and funny looking men in powdered wigs on it.

    We all expect money to have value, and yet, the Bush team continue to sabotage the currency with their unfunded tax cuts, their $9 per month war in Iraq, and their 35% expansion of the federal government. (Remember when Clinton said the “era of big government is over”?) The result of this craziness was thoroughly predictable; central banks are running for the exits.

    Last Firday, the government reported that net capital inflows reversed from the requisite $70 billion to AN OUTFLOW OF $11 BILLION!

    The current account deficit (which includes the trade deficit) is running at roughly $800 billion per year, which means that the US must attract about $70 billion per month of foreign investment (US Treasuries or securities) to compensate for America's extravagant spending. When foreign investment stumbles, as it did in December, it puts downward pressure on the dollar.

    So what does it all mean?

    It means they don’t want our stinking greenbacks. And, if they don’t resume purchasing our debt (US Treasuries or securities) the dollar will join Rocky Balboa on the canvas peering up blankly at the klieg lights.

    “The full faith and credit” of the USA does not mean what it did 6 years ago. That’s a fact.

    The Bush-Cheney-Federal Reserve axis believe they can keep this ponzi-scheme going by cornering the oil market (attacking Iran) and forcing the oil-thirsty world to accept our feeble banknotes. But that’s just nuts. The Chinese are already killing us by buying up oil and natural gas leasing rights around the world WITH OUR OWN DOLLARS!

    It wasn’t supposed to work that way. We thought we were being clever by destroying the American labor movement and shipping our industry to China. We figured we could vanquish the middle class at home while we put the “fear o’ god” in the Chinese with our “shock and awe military” that was supposed to be out of Iraq in 3 years at the most.

    How’d that work out?

    Now the housing-bubble millstone is pulling millions of home owners beneath the waves while the maxed American consumer is down to his last credit card. In other words, the $11 trillion of new debt that was cleverly engineered through Greenspan’s low interest rate bonanza is about to detonate and bring the whole, wretched tower of American debt crashing to earth.

    The US economy hasn’t depended on productivity for years, even though the American people work harder and longer than their better-paid counterparts in Europe. This entire mess was brought on by stagnant wages, the wealth gap, and a system that rewards the villaso-raptures at the top of the economic food-chain. Like Cheney, they believe they can keep this scam going on forever; forcing the world to take worthless sheets green scrip that’s backed up by $8.7 trillion of debt and wouldn’t even make good bird-cage liner.

    But, then, that’s just my opinion.


    Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com

    Central Banks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves - CBP Survey

    Central Banks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves - CBP Survey

    Mon, Feb 26 2007, 00:01 GMT

    http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

    Ctrl Bks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves -CBP Survey

    LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro made small gains as a reserve currency at the expense of the U.S. dollar in the final months of 2006, while gold is set to make a comeback as a reserve asset, a survey by Central Banking Publications showed Monday.

    Although respondents to the confidential survey don't appear to have included the People's Bank of China or the Bank of Japan - which hold the world's largest foreign exchange reserves - they do account for 30% of total reserves held worldwide, or $1.5 trillion, CBP said. Of the 47 central banks that responded by December to the survey, 21 of them, managing reservesof $630 billion, said they had increased the share of their reserves held as euros, and 15 of thosesaid they had done so at the expense of the dollar.

    The survey by CBP, a publishing company specializing in reporting on central banks and other aspects of international finance, showed that seven central banks said they had cut the share of reserves held in euros.

    Nineteen central banks said they had cut the share of reserves held as dollars, while only 10 had increased the share of reserves held in the U.S. currency. Only five of the latter group, with reserves totaling $70 billion, said they had done so at the expense of the euro.

    "Many respondents raised the proportion of their portfolios held in euros, in most cases at the expense of the dollar," Central Banking Publications said.

    Nine central banks raised the pound's allocation, while four cut its share of reserves. Four central banks reported cutting their allocations of the Swiss franc, and none reported increasing its share.

    Six central banks said they had raised their yen allocations, while four cut their allocations to the Japanese currency.

    The shift into euros on the scale suggested by the survey would still leave the dollar as the dominant reserve currency by a large margin.

    The International Monetary Fund has said that in the third quarter of 2006 the dollar accounted for 66% of foreign currency reserves, while the euro accounted for 25%. In the second quarter, the dollar accounted for 65% of reserves, and the euro 25.5%.

    The survey also indicates that the pound continues to be the third most important reserve currency, with the Japanese yen remaining in fourth place.

    After a long decline as a reserve asset, the survey indicates that gold may be about to make a comeback. Some 63% of central banks said gold had become more attractive following recent price rises and an increase in market liquidity.

    But gold's role as a safe haven in the wake of natural or man-made disasters is also part of its attraction for central bankers.

    "Ongoing geopolitical risks involving the U.S. and its war on terrorism make U.S. Treasurys less attractive and gold more attractive," the survey quoted a reserve manager at a developing country's central bank as saying.

    Central banks have been diversifying their investment portfolios away from holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and other low-yielding assets in recent years.

    The survey found many would like to be able to invest in equities, something only three of the central banks in the survey are allowed to do at present.

    Some 56% of respondents said there is a case for allowing central banks to invest in equities, although few of those came from developing economies.

    However, a move into equities is unlikely to happen soon, since central banks continue to be conservative in their investment decisions.

    The survey showed that in 2006, 70% didn't raise the proportion of their portfolio that is invested in "new asset classes" - essentially, anything that isn't a triple-A rated government bond - while 5% had cut their allocation to new assets.

    Central banks were in agreement that the sharp rise in official foreign exchange reserves that has taken place in the last three years is likely to continue.

    One central bank expects reserves to double over the next three to four years, but most respondents expected reserves to increase by between 20% and 59%, on top of the 70% increase since 2004.

    Central banks said the greatest threat to the value of their reserves over the coming 12 months is the risk of a slowdown in a major economy - particularly the U.S. - and global imbalances. That contrasts with 2006 and 2005, when their greatest concern was rising interest rates.

    Reserve managers are also increasingly worried by the threat posed by heightened geopolitical risks, while some also expressed concern about the growing role played by hedge funds in global financial markets.

    "Hedge funds have been growing rapidly and taking huge positions in different markets, and it seems that lessons from the past are not being taken into account," said one reserve manager. "When they come to unwind their positions, the impact on the markets may be severely destabilizing."

    -By Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9491; paul.hannon@dowjones.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    February 25, 2007 19:01 ET (00:01 GMT)


    Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Dow Jones

    Friday, February 16, 2007

    Drop in capital flow to U.S. poor dollar omen

    Fri Feb 16, 2007 7:21AM EST

    By Nick Olivari - Analysis

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - An unexpected drop in demand for U.S. financial assets in late 2006 bodes ill for the dollar unless December's data on capital flows released on Thursday proves an anomaly instead of the start of a trend.

    During the month, foreign private investors cut their purchases of U.S. securities by two thirds and U.S.-based investors plowed a record amount of cash into international stock markets. This resulted in a net $11 billion of capital leaving the U.S. financial system in December, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.

    It marked the first net outflow of capital in two years. The weaker-than-expected Treasury International Capital (TICs) data triggered a bout of dollar selling, which was exacerbated by weak U.S. industrial production data released just afterward.

    The dollar has been propped up in recent years by strong demand for U.S. Treasuries, especially in Asia, where the U.S. trade deficit is most pronounced.

    But with returns in foreign stock markets a better bet, U.S. investors have sent cash overseas and in the process sold dollars to buy those foreign securities. Non-government foreign investors have also gone the same way.

    For the U.S. to return to an inflow scenario, foreign and U.S. investors would again have to see the U.S. as the best place to invest based on risk and return.

    "One number doesn't make a trend ... but it's going to totally heighten expectations for the next figure," said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust in Boston. "If it comes out (with a January inflow of) $120 billion, people would see (December) as a one-off but if we get back-to-back $15 billion (outflows), you don't want be long the buck."

    The dollar, which fell to a six-week low against a basket of currencies, is sensitive to foreign demand for U.S. assets because increasing amounts of foreign capital are needed to finance the country's external deficit.

    The dollar index (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research) last traded at 84.09, close to the session low of 83.94. The euro changed hands at $1.3137, up 0.1 but off the session high of $1.3172. The dollar ended 1 percent lower against the yen at 119.48 yen.

    "Today's TICS report is negative for the dollar as it raises questions about the continued funding of the U.S. current account deficit," said Bank of New York's Woolfolk.

    U.S. residents purchased a record net $47.4 billion of foreign securities in December, beating the previous record of $37.4 billion in November 2006.

    "Total U.S. net purchases of foreign stocks and bonds soared to an all time high of $47.4 billion, signaling that the reason for falling net flows into the US is not only a result of foreigners' actions with US assets but also US residents' surging interest in non-U.S. assets," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at CMC Markets.

    U.S. equities experienced net outflows of $11.6 billion compared with a $6.9 billion inflow in November. That comes as international equity markets continue to outperform major U.S. stock indexes by about a two-to-one margin, a persistent trend over about the past five years.

    Net long-term capital inflows, cross-border investment into securities with an original maturity of 12 months or longer, fell to $15.6 billion from a $84.9 billion inflow in November. November's number was upwardly revised from $68.4 billion.

    Camilla Sutton, currency strategist, at Scotia Capital emphasized most of the decline in purchases came from the private side, with official buying still evident.

    Private net purchases of U.S. securities totaled $39 billion in December, down from $115.7 billion in November. Official net buying totaled $24 billion, up from $6.5 billion.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to the House Financial Services Committee, said on Thursday he did not anticipate any massive selloff of foreign holdings in U.S. Treasury Securities.

    Net purchases of U.S. Treasuries added up to $10.58 billion, below November's $34.12 billion. It was the smallest purchase of U.S. Treasuries since September's $1.66 billion.

    Bernanke said that foreign demand for U.S. assets remains strong though there is a risk of weaker demand for dollar assets in the future.

    (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Amanda Cooper)

    Tuesday, February 6, 2007

    The Great Dollar Crash of ‘07

    Feb 6, 2007

    By Mike Whitney

    The massive equity bubbles which arose from artificially low interest rates and the deliberate destruction of the dollar by reckless increases in the money supply have shifted trillions of dollars from working class Americans to the predatory aristocrats at the top of the economic food chain. The gulf between rich and poor has grown so wide that it now poses a direct threat to our increasingly fragile democracy.

    “Whatever future developments may prove to be, my best guess is that the US will continue to maintain a façade of Constitutional government and drift along until financial bankruptcy overtakes it.” Chalmers Johnson, “Empire V. Democracy: Why Nemesis is at our Door”

    02/06/07 "ICHBlog" -- - Every time a US Dollar is traded, a check is issued on an account that is overdrawn by $8.6 trillion. (That is the present size of the national debt) It is, without question, the biggest swindle in history. Flimsy sheets of faded-green scrip are eagerly exchanged for costly goods and services without any regard for the real value of the currency.

    And, the real value of the currency is absolutely nothing!

    How is it that this scam persists when people appear to be aware of the massive debt and deficits which underwrite the dollar? Do they still believe in that puerile fairy tale about “the full faith and credit” of the United States backing up every greenback? Or are they pacified by the wizened graybeards, like Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson, who soothingly bray about the “strong dollar policy”?

    What gibberish.

    In truth, the dollar rests on the crumbling foundation of consumerism and oil. The American consumer’s gluttonous appetite for spending has kept the greenback flying high for decades. Economists marvel at America’s lust for electronic gadgetry, the latest fashions, and useless knick-knacks. They call our profligate spending “the engine for global growth”; and indeed it is. No other country in the world is nearly as addicted to binge-spending as the US consumer. As long as he can beg, borrow or steal his way into the shopping mall; the orgy of spending is bound to continue. (Consumer spending is 70% of GDP)

    Regrettably, there are signs that the US consumer is beginning to buckle from the weight of personal debt. The Associated Press reported just this week that “people are saving at the slowest rate since the Great Depression… and the Commerce Dept stated that the nation’s personal savings rate for 2006 was a negative 1%, the worst showing in 73 years.”

    Additionally, credit card debt has skyrocketed, which is an indication that homeowners are no longer able to siphon easy-money from their home-equity. The nose-diving real estate market has slowed refinancing to a dribble; cutting off the additional $825 billion of cash which was extracted from home-equity just last year.

    Clearly, the well is running dry; the housing bubble is hang-gliding into the abyss and there’s nothing Fed-master Bernanke can do to save it from its inevitable crash-landing.

    The central banks around the world are now watching for any sign that the American consumer is about to give up the ghost. As soon as that happens, bank managers everywhere will swing into action, ditch their U.S.Dollars and head for the exits. When the “global engine” sputters to a halt; it’ll be curtains for the greenback.

    The Oil-extortion Racket

    The dollar’s link to oil has helped to keep it afloat but, in truth, it’s just another dismal rip-off. More than 70% of the world’s oil is denominated in USD; a virtual monopoly for the USA. Until last year, even Russia was using dollars in its oil transactions with Germany. Imagine a comparable deal, like the US purchasing oil from Canada in rubles?!?

    It’s lunacy; and yet this is the system the US hopes to preserve so it can maintain its unique status as the world’s “reserve currency” and keep expanding its debt into perpetuity. It explains why the Federal Reserve has been able to increase the money supply by a whopping 15% for the last 6 years! Trillions of dollars are now circulating in the oil trade keeping the value of the dollar high by creating artificial demand.

    The other reason the dollar hasn’t succumbed to hyperinflation is because the current account deficit is running at roughly $800 billion per year. The Asian giants (China and Japan) and the oil exporting countries are mopping up more than $700 billion of our red ink every year!

    The dollar’s link to oil forces central banks to maintain humongous stockpiles of USD to pay the steadily rising price of oil that keeps their industries and vehicles running. Otherwise they would have chucked the flaccid greenback years ago and converted to the more steadfast euro.


    The so-called ‘global economic system’ has nothing to do with competition, free markets or private enterprise; that’s just public relations gobbledygook. In practice, it is the world’s biggest extortion racket, wherein, the “Godfather”-- Uncle Sam-- holds a gun to the heads of his subjects and forces them to use our fiat-paper to purchase the oil that lubricates their economies.

    Why would anyone accept a personal check from a nation that owes the bank more than $8.6 trillion dollars?

    Why, indeed?

    It’s blackmail, pure and simple; and yet, the Chinese, Japanese etc. continue to play along knowing full-well that we neither have the inclination nor the resources to pay them back in kind?

    It’s madness.

    Every so often, a rebel nation will try to break the shackle of greenback-tyranny and operate outside the US-run system?

    For example, Saddam Hussein switched to euros 6 months before he was carpet-bombed in Shock and Awe. His defiance only hastened his ultimate downfall.

    Now Iran and Venezuela are threatening to convert to euros. Is it any surprise that they are both on Bush’s axis-of-evil hit list?

    Russia has already made the conversion to euros and rubles (and has considerably depleted his supplies of USD) but, of course, regime change is more difficult when a state has nuclear weapons. Instead, the mainstream media is conducting an impressive “Swift Boat” campaign against Putin, smearing him as a “Russian autocrat” who is “rolling back democracy”. At the same time, the Bush administration is threatening to deploy missile systems in Eastern Europe and ratcheting up the pressure in the former Soviet republics.

    Bush would rather restart the Cold War than abandon the supremacy of the greenback.

    But, why? Is Dollar-primacy really that crucial to our economy?

    The greenback is the baling wire that keeps the global economy in the hands of the doddering old misers at the Federal Reserve. It’s the cornerstone of the whole wretched system; a system which now includes torture, extraordinary rendition, and myriad other war crimes.

    The young Muslim men who are abducted off the streets of Europe and Asia and taken to CIA Black Sites where they are waterboarded or stacked in naked pyramids; are tortured in defense of the crumpled piece of green paper we carry in our pants pockets.

    Think I’m kidding?

    Just look at Bush’s budget for 2007-2008; $700 billion for foreign wars?!? There’s no way the US can pay off that debt through the normal means of increasing exports. In fact, Bush has already said that he plans to preserve his unfunded tax cuts whether they produce massive deficits or not.

    What Bush plans to do is force the foreign central banks to hold more dollar-based assets, thus, thrusting our gigantic debt onto our trading partners. According to Bob Chapman of The International Forecaster, “US debt was up 10.1% to $4.085 trillion and accounts for 58.8% OF ALL THE CREDIT ISSUED GLOBALLY LAST YEAR. The US is producing more debt than the rest of the world combined.

    As long as foreign lenders are willing to take our paper, Bush will keep expanding our debt. As Chalmers Johnson opined, “We are dependent on ‘the kindness of strangers’”. (The Blanche Dubois economy)

    Of course, if the central banks grow tired of this pyramid-scheme and dump the dollar; the world can get on with the business of addressing global warming, poverty, AIDs, Peak Oil, nuclear proliferation etc. That won’t happen as long as the dollar reigns supreme and a small cadre of unelected racketeers at the Fed continue Gerry-rig the system.

    Economic justice and equitable distribution of wealth begin with greater parity among the currencies. That requires “regime change” for the greenback and a loosening of its tyrannical grip on the system.

    Sleepwalking in the Weimar U.S.A.

    The good news is that the Bush administration is pushing the dollar towards extinction anyway. Another few years of $800 billion trade deficits, lavish unfunded tax cuts for the mega-rich, and a Pentagon budget of $700 billion-plus; and the old greenback will be going the way of the Dodo. Jim Willie of GoldenJackass.com summarized it this way:

    “Never in the history of central bankers has the hidden coordination, influenced pressure, gargantuan money creation, doctored statistics, and interference with financial markets been so broad, so deep, and so profound. My allegation is clear, that we now live in Weimar times, as has been warned for two years worth of scribbles. Collectively, they have abused the privilege of printing money, and in doing so, have guaranteed a gold bull market. … The more heavily the counterfeit press dispenses electronic dollars, devoted to operations, to credit, to consumer spending, to military adventures, to good old fashioned fraud, the gold bull benefits from ample new oxygen and blood flow”.

    Willie is right; the system is rotten to the core. Once the dollar crashes, other currencies rush in to fill the void generating greater competition between the energy and manufacturing giants. A new paradigm will emerge distributing power more equitably among the states. It’s a way to resuscitate a system that is currently held together through force of arms.

    Besides, how long will China and Japan continue to abet Washington’s war-mongering adventurism? My guess is that the daggers have already been sharpened in Beijing, Caracas, Delhi and Moscow. Everyone is just waiting for Bush to cross that invisible line in the sand before they fling their greenbacks into the jet-stream and wait for Goliath to tumble.

    That “invisible line in the sand” is Iran.

    The world is at a crossroads and everyone who can fog a mirror knows it. The superpower model of global governance has failed miserably. We need more responsible stewardship of the planet and its resources.

    How can we build our economies when a handful of western plutocrats control the spigot for quickly dwindling oil reserves? How can we attack climate change when those same blinkered reprobates employ pseudo-scientists to dispute global warming? How can we address nuclear proliferation when neocon militarists believe in “useable” low-yield, bunker-busting warheads?

    The model is hopelessly shattered. We’d be better off boarding-up the White House and the Federal Reserve and starting from Square One.

    The world needs a break from Washington’s wasteful spending and unprovoked wars. At the same time, foreign creditors are increasingly reluctant to keep financing America’s extravagant consumption. And, no one is hoodwinked by Bush’s “war on terror” scam; a conflict that was clearly concocted to assert control over the world’s remaining resources.

    The world is realigning according to mutual interests and a shared vision of the future. The rise of energy alliances in Latin America and Asia (particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which now controls most new oil deposits and output) signals the waning of western influence and the ascendancy of a new energy paradigm. Power is progressively shifting away from Washington.

    That’s bad news for the greenback which depends on its linkage to oil to sustain its enormous debt.

    The dollar now faces challenges from all directions. Western elites have savaged the country’s economic base by hollowing out our manufacturing base in order to destroy the American labor movement.

    Free trade has transformed the US into the biggest creditor nation in history. The country exports nothing but bombs and misery.

    Also, as Congressman Ron Paul notes, “Most knowledgeable people assume that inflation of the money supply is not only going to continue, but accelerate. This anticipation, plus the fact that many new dollars have been created over the past 15 years that have not been fully discounted, guarantees the further depreciation of the dollar.”

    Eventually, the markets will catch on, foreign lenders will stop buying our Treasuries, and the dollar will fall through the floor.

    The laws of gravity apply to economics as well as science.

    Red flags are going up everywhere. China’s central bank issued a warning in December about the risks of the weakening dollar:

    “If external capital stops flowing into the US, a significant drop in the dollar may occur with consumption and investment shrinking, interest rates rising, and financial markets experiencing turbulence, endangering global financial and economic stability. There could be adjustments to how European private capital, Asian foreign exchange reserves and oil export proceeds are invested.”

    Yes, of course, a complete economic meltdown with capital fleeing the United States to foreign countries and the American economy collapsing in a heap.

    The Chinese central bank statement adds:

    “If the US current account deficit continues to grow faster than GDP, then the investment value of US assets may be subject to doubts and challenges and the willingness of investors to continue holding and buying US financial products may weaken. This could cause changes in capital flows, the exchange rates of major currencies, and the value of foreign exchange assets.”

    The Chinese bank is giving the Bush Team a chapter out of Econ. 101: “If you keep spending more than you are taking in; the stock market will fall, the dollar will plummet, and the US economy will tank”.

    What could be clearer than that?

    The administration, however, chooses to ignore the basic laws of economics and pursue a madcap plan to wage aggressive war across the planet and pilfer the world’s oil reserves.

    So far, the results have been less than reassuring.

    The Decline of U.S. Sovereignty; blame it on the Fed

    The United States set off on the road to perdition when it transferred the power to create money to the privately-owned Federal Reserve. It’s been downhill ever since.

    The man who can set interest rates and create money is more powerful than the man who can move armies and change laws. By conferring that authority on the Federal Reserve we have assured that the policies that govern our economy are decided by unelected members of the ruling elite whose choices will naturally reflect the interests of their class.

    The wealth gap that has opened up like a yawning chasm between rich and poor in America originated with the class-based policies of the Fed. The massive equity bubbles which arose from artificially low interest rates and the deliberate destruction of the dollar by reckless increases in the money supply have shifted trillions of dollars from working class Americans to the predatory aristocrats at the top of the economic food chain. The gulf between rich and poor has grown so wide that it now poses a direct threat to our increasingly fragile democracy. That’s why Thomas Jefferson said:

    “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of our currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing of power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

    Free people cannot control their own destiny unless they control their own currency. The Federal Reserve must be abolished.

    Another nail in the US dollar's coffin

    US President George W Bush's intransigence on Iraq is fracturing the American body politic. This destructive trend, combined with growing political pressure for dollar devaluation and a slew of negative economic factors, is likely to prompt significant dollar depreciation, sending asset values in the US sharply lower and precious-metal prices soaring.
    ---
    Feb 7, 2007

    RISKY BUSINESS

    By Jephraim P Gundzik

    Growing political instability in the US will weigh heavily on the dollar during 2007. This weight, combined with growing political pressure for dollar devaluation and a slew of negative economic factors, is likely to prompt significant dollar depreciation against most other currencies. The dollar's decline will help send asset values in the US sharply lower and precious metals prices soaring.

    Smells like impeachment
    The aftermath of President George W Bush's State of the Union address last month provided a clear picture of the now-gaping divide between the policies of the US president and the opinions of Congress, the American people and most of the world. The president pleaded for the support of Americans for his plan for "stabilizing" Iraq and the Middle East by escalating the US military presence in the region. Rather than stabilization, this policy could fuel civil wars in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. It could also lead to military conflict between the United States and Iran.

    Bush, whose only solid support comes from within his own exceedingly cliquish administration, is challenging Congress and the American people to defy his will. A strong challenge is already brewing in Congress, where Democrats are teaming with moderate Republicans to rebuke the president and to withhold funds for US military operations in the Middle East. Americans have challenged the president, too, by recently staging large anti-war protests.

    Opinion polls indicate that Bush's approval rating has slipped toward 30%, a nadir for a US president not seen since the days when the impeachment of Richard Nixon was unfolding in the 1970s. Ironically, Bush may face the same fate as that Republican, who also tried to defy the will of Congress and the American people.

    Congress reacted almost immediately to Bush's pleas for support by delivering a resolution in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee declaring that the Bush administration's plan to send some 21,500 more troops to Iraq is "not in the national interest of the United States". Similar legislation is expected to be passed with bipartisan support in both houses of Congress within the next few weeks. Such a formal rebuke of executive-branch policy by the legislature has very few modern precedents.

    The Bush administration has responded to the prospect of a rebuke by asserting that the legislature has no power over the executive branch. Vice President Dick Cheney told the CNN television network that any resolution opposing more US troops in Iraq "won't stop us". Cheney also said a congressional rebuke "would simply validate the terrorists' strategy that says Americans will not stay to complete the task, that we don't have the stomach to fight".

    Over the next few weeks, a spirited debate will increasingly grip Congress over how the legislature can exercise its constitutional powers to impose its will on the Bush administration. This debate will form the backbone of legislation that will significantly reduce funding for the war in Iraq and US military adventures in the Middle East.

    If, as expected, the administration ignores such legislation, impeachment proceedings against Bush or Cheney, or both, may ensue. This battle royal between Congress and the Bush administration will create enormous political instability in the US. This instability will weigh heavily on the value of the dollar.

    No legs left to stand on
    In addition to rapidly increasing political instability, growing pressure in the US Congress for the devaluation of the dollar will also undermine support for the greenback. Democrats, who now control Congress, have long lobbied for the revaluation of the yuan and yen against the dollar. Revaluation of the Chinese and Japanese currencies means devaluation of the dollar.

    The political pressure for dollar devaluation ratcheted higher late last month after the announcement by US auto maker Ford that it lost US$13 billion in 2006. This record loss surpassed the record loss posted by General Motors in 2005 of $11 billion. While some of these enormous losses can be pinned on very high health-care and retirement costs burdening US auto makers, much of the blame for these losses is landing squarely in Tokyo for its weak-yen policy.

    Backed by US manufacturers and their unionized employees, Democrats in Congress are also vilifying Beijing for its weak-yuan policy, which has helped push US imports from China to dizzying levels over the past several years. In the coming months, Democrats are likely to push strongly in Congress for legislation calling on China and Japan to take action to strengthen their currencies - at the dollar's expense.

    More immediately, the upcoming Group of Seven meeting, which will be held this Friday and Saturday in Essen, Germany, is very likely to produce a statement calling for revaluation of the yuan and yen. As in the US, European manufacturers are applying pressure on their politicians for yuan and yen appreciation. Japan is expected to respond positively to such demands.

    Economic factors in the US are also cutting the legs out from under dollar support. In addition to huge current-account and budget deficits, inflation in the US is much higher than in many other countries. Continued high international energy prices and very rapidly rising grain and oilseed prices - the product of soaring demand for biofuels - will push inflation in the US higher in 2007. The idea that inflation will increase in the months ahead is just beginning to register with financial markets in the US, where nominal bond yields have begun to climb.

    Though inflation expectations in the United States are now heading higher, the Federal Reserve continues to resist pushing official interest rates higher for fear of provoking an economic recession and widespread losses among US banks, which are very vulnerable to mortgage defaults. Though economic growth in the US is widely expected to slow in 2007, US stock markets continue to move higher, making equities increasingly overvalued.

    Finally, as the prices for many dollar-denominated agricultural goods double in 2007, many of the world's central banks will encourage the appreciation of their own currencies in order to contain imported inflation. This process has already begun with several large central banks beginning to shift reserves out of dollars and US Treasury securities.

    The only factor supporting the dollar is the misunderstood contention that interest-rate differentials favor the greenback. In nominal terms this is true. However, real yield differentials favor most other currencies, even the yen, against the dollar. Rising inflation in the US will further widen real yield differentials in favor of other currencies against the dollar during 2007.

    The dollar's swoon appears inevitable in the coming months. As the value of the dollar drops, US asset markets will also swoon. Against this background, precious-metal prices will head sharply higher as investors increasingly diversify out of dollar assets backed by weakening profit outlooks and falling real yields.


    Jephraim P Gundzik is president of Condor Advisers. Condor Advisers provides investment risk analysis to individuals and institutions worldwide. For more information, please visit www.condoradvisers.com.

    Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.

    Monday, January 29, 2007

    ECB's Trichet to Examine M3 Data `Very Carefully'

    (Update3)

    By Andreas Scholz and John Fraher

    Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he will ``very, very carefully examine'' figures that yesterday showed money-supply growth in the euro region accelerated to the fastest pace in 17 years.

    ``It confirms what we have already said and what I have already said in the name of the governing council,'' said Trichet in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

    Trichet has signaled the ECB will raise the benchmark 3.5 percent interest rate in March, which would be the seventh increase since the end of 2005, partly to slow the flow of liquidity. The ECB yesterday said M3 growth, its preferred measure of money supply, surged 9.7 percent in December, more than double the rate it says risks fueling inflation.

    ECB council member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi echoed Trichet's concern in a speech he delivered today in Milan. Growth probably exceeded 2.5 percent last year, he said, and would continue to be ``close to or even above its potential'' this year and next.

    ``The current level of interest rates definitely doesn't constitute a hindrance to growth,'' Bini Smaghi said. The ECB's strategy to increase rates before inflationary pressures mount ``has proven correct, and will continue in coming months.''

    The Frankfurt-based central bank defines potential growth, the speed at which the 13-nation economy can grow without fueling inflation, at between 2 percent and 2.5 percent.

    `Not Sustainable'

    Trichet, elaborating on one of the most popular talking points at this year's meeting, said on a panel today that financial markets are vulnerable to any shock that could hurt the global economy and their risk appetite is ``not necessarily sustainable.''

    Investors and policy makers ``have to be prepared for a reappreciation of risk'' which is ``likely,'' said Trichet, sitting next to Chinese deputy central bank governor Wu Xiaoling and Israel central bank governor Stanley Fischer. Such a move may be ``smooth'' or ``disorderly,'' he said.

    Trichet cited oil prices, the unraveling of so-called global imbalances and geopolitical conflicts as potential risks to the global economy.

    Several measures show perception of risk is near historic lows. The risk of owning European corporate bonds dropped to the lowest ever this week, according to credit-default swap traders. The amount of debt used to finance European buyouts reached a record high in the third quarter.

    IMF View

    John Lipsky, first deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, said the level of risk priced in financial markets is appropriate.

    ``The global economy turned out much better than expected so it's not surprising that risk measure should be moving in a favorable direction,'' he said in an interview. ``Markets often overshoot and adjust back so that wouldn't be surprise. But the fact that there's something fundamentally wrong is not obvious.''

    Trichet said central banks need to ``remain very, very alert'' to the risks of inflation and can't take anything for granted. In an interview yesterday, Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the ECB must continue raising rates to keep a lid on consumer prices.

    ``We have to take this process of withdrawing monetary stimulation further,'' according to Weber, who also heads Germany's Bundesbank.

    Investors expect the ECB to raise its key rate twice more this year, futures markets suggest.

    Rate Forecasts

    The yield on the three-month Euribor futures contract for March closed at 3.92 percent yesterday. The December contract was at 4.17 percent. The contracts settle to the three-month inter- bank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.

    Trichet said global growth this year will probably be close to its levels in recent years. The International Monetary Fund says the global economy expanded 5.1 percent in 2006 and 4.9 percent in 2005.

    ``We have a good probability to have a present year which could be in line with previous years,'' according to Trichet. Still, policy makers, investors and executives should guard against ``complacency'' given the risks facing the global economy, he said.

    Growth in the euro region will probably be ``just above'' 2 percent this year, said Trichet, whose bank in December forecast the economy will expand around 2.2 percent this year.

    When asked about global currencies, Trichet said he's sticking to the Group of Seven's agreed position and declined to comment further.

    To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in Davos at jfraher@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: January 27, 2007 08:34 EST

    Monday, January 15, 2007

    Euro displaces dollar in bond markets

    By David Oakley and Gillian Tett in London

    Published: January 14 2007 22:08 | Last updated: January 14 2007 22:08

    The euro has displaced the US dollar as the world’s pre-eminent currency in international bond markets, having outstripped the dollar-denominated market for the second year in a row.

    The data consolidate news last month that the value of euro notes in circulation had overtaken the dollar for the first time. Outstanding debt issued in the euro was worth the equivalent of $4,836bn at the end of 2006 compared with $3,892bn for the dollar, according to International Capital Market Association data.

    Outstanding euro-denominated debt accounts for 45 per cent of the global market, compared with 37 per cent for the dollar. New issuance last year accounted for 49 per cent of the global total.

    That represents a startling turnabout from the pattern seen in recent decades, when the US bond market dwarfed its European rival: as recently as 2002, outstanding euro-denominated issuance represented just 27 per cent of the global pie, compared with 51 per cent for the dollar.

    The rising role of the euro comes amid growing issuance by debt-laden European governments. However, the main factor is a rise in euro-denominated issuance by companies and financial institutions.

    One factor driving this is that European companies are moving away from their traditional reliance on bank loans – and embracing the capital markets to a greater degree.

    Another is that the creation of the single currency in 1999 has permitted development of a deeper and more liquid market, consolidated by a growing eurozone.

    This has made it more attractive for issuers around the world to raise funds in the euro market. And, more recently, the trend among some Asian and Middle Eastern countries to diversify their assets away from the dollar has further boosted this trend.

    René Karsenti, executive president of ICMA, said: “It is the stable interest rates in Europe that have helped and the fact that [the euro] has strengthened and shown resilience.”

    Since the start of 2003, the European Central Bank’s main interest rate has fluctuated only 1.5 percentage points, ranging from a low of 2 per cent in the middle of that year to 3.5 per cent, its rate today.

    In comparison, the Fed funds rate, the main US interest rate, has fluctuated 4.25 percentage points, ranging from 1 per cent in the middle of 2003 to 5.25 per cent, its level today. The euro has also risen to trade around $1.30 against the dollar, from around parity three years ago. Sterling issuance has grown in the past three years, reinforcing its attraction as a niche currency among some investors. The yen, in comparison, has fallen out of favour.

    Overall, international capital markets have doubled in size in terms of bond issuance during the past six years.