Showing posts with label insurgents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label insurgents. Show all posts

Friday, April 27, 2007

On whose side is Al-Qaeda?

Tension between the national resistance in Iraq and Al-Qaeda mounts as the latter makes a bid for power monopoly, writes Lamis Andoni

Al-Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq has signalled the beginning of an offensive that sets it apart from Iraqi resistance groups in a brazen and violent struggle not only against foreign occupation but also and mainly for power in Iraq.

If Al-Qaeda was responsible, as it claims, for the suicide bombing at the Iraqi parliament, the attack represents its most daring act yet aimed at asserting a monopoly of representation of Iraqis. The bombing, as much as it shattered the American security plan, signals that Al-Qaeda has embarked on an irreversible path of wrestling for power even before a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

While various Iraqi resistance groups have always differed with Al-Qaeda's tactics and actions, trying at the same time to avoid an all-out confrontation with the transnational organisation, the so- called Islamic State of Iraq is declaring war on all who do not conform to its ambitions.

The struggle between resistance groups and Al-Qaeda rose to surface when the Islamic Army, a prominent resistance group, issued a strong-worded statement condemning Al-Qaeda's actions and calling on Osama Bin Laden to personally intervene to rein-in Al-Qaeda in Iraq.

The assassination of 1920 Revolution Brigades leader Harith Dhaher Khamis Al-Dhari, nephew of the influential Muslim Scholars Association leader Sheikh Harith Al-Dhari, on 27 March, reportedly in an Al-Qaeda ambush, sent shockwaves across resistance groups, especially that it followed the killing of at least 30 fighters from the Islamic Army.

"Al-Qaeda has actually killed a number of Mujahideen brothers, 30 of them so far, and also attacked other resistance groups, clashing with the 1920 Revolution Brigades, battles with which break out from time to time until now in Abu Ghraib. Most recently Al-Qaeda killed one of its field commanders, Brother Harith Dhaher Al-Dhari," the statement said.

"Al-Qaeda has also killed members of the Army of the Mujahideen resistance organisation and members of the Ansar Al-Sunna resistance group. Al-Qaeda has also threatened the Islamic Front," the statement added.

Differences between Al-Qaeda's Islamic State in Iraq and the resistance have been simmering ever since Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia declared an Islamic state with Abu Omar Baghdadi named "prince of the faithful". That dramatic move, replete with an armed parade, was witnessed with alarm across the Sunni political community and the resistance alike. While staking its claim over the leadership and future of Iraq, it was not expected that Al-Qaeda would move so quickly into eliminating its opponents and demanding total allegiance.

The Islamic Army and other resistance groups, even those with close coordinating ties with Al-Qaeda, refuse the logic of being subordinated to the Islamic State of Iraq's self-proclaimed leader. Sources close to both the Islamic Army and the 1920 Revolution Brigades say it is now obvious that Al-Qaeda is vying for unrivaled control over the resistance.

Differences over the agenda and leadership of the resistance are not new, but the death of Abu Musaab Al-Zarqawi brought such differences to the fore.

"We were hoping that the resistance could continue coordinating with Al-Qaeda in the battlefield and postpone any conflict until later," a source close to the 1920 Revolution Brigades recalls. The declaration of the Islamic State and ensuing threats to resistance fighters and leaders made it clear that Al-Qaeda was looking neither for coordination nor a coalition. "Al-Qaeda saw no room for other agendas but one -- its own," the source said.

Following the assassination of Al-Dhari, the 1920 Revolution Brigade and the Dhari tribe tried to contain the incident, as the resistance "should not be dragged into dangerous confrontations with Al-Qaeda", according to at least two sources close to the resistance. Al-Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq, however, was deterred neither by alarmed reactions nor attempts to contact its leadership in Iraq. The Islamic Army broke its silence once Al-Qaeda's attacks against Sunni civilians, mosques, imams, and even "demanding money" from families in return for protection, became the rule, not the exception.

"The Sunni population has thus become a 'legitimate target' for them, in particular the wealthy, who are told that either they must pay what Al-Qaeda wants or they will be killed, and they strive to kill anyone who criticises them or differs with them and exposes their errors, regarding this as a simple matter," the Islamic Army said.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Islamic Army spokesman Ibrahim Al-Shammari said that while at the beginning -- at the onset of the US occupation -- the Islamic Army maintained field coordination with Al-Qaeda, differences had grown to the point where it was impossible "to tolerate Al-Qaeda actions, which have been very damaging to the resistance".

Different resistance groups, especially Islamic- based groups, had initially accepted Al-Qaeda's role, which they saw as impressively efficient and painful for occupation forces. Salafi-based groups, like Ansar Al-Sunna, and some members of the other groups, embraced Al-Qaeda and hailed "the Muslim Mujahideen who came to liberate Iraq." Al-Qaeda was welcomed into the fold of the Majles Al-Shura (Consultative Council) that includes seven factions, though its attempts to control the council or impose its agenda were repeatedly rejected.

The resistance, according to different sources close to the movement, saw the advantage of Al-Qaeda's military attacks against the occupation forces but felt the damage done by its sectarian rhetoric and deadly assaults against Iraqi civilians.

A debate has been ongoing about targeting the Iraqi army and police, and Iraqis involved in the American-sponsored political process. In his Al-Jazeera interview, Al-Shammari rejected considering the Iraqi army, the police and Iraqis in parliament as legitimate targets. The same position is held by the 1920 Revolution Brigades and other Sunni leaders.

Now, as dramatically demonstrated in the parliament bombing, Al-Qaeda's Islamic State in Iraq is going out on its own. Reports from Baghdad also suggest an increasing number of attacks by Al-Qaeda on resistance groups, its leaders and districts that don't submit to its control.

While Al-Qaeda's influence has decreased in most of Al-Anbar, following the establishment of the Anbar Salvation Council and local/tribal police forces "to combat terrorism", it exerts total control in certain enclaves such as Al-Karma, a small town near Fallujah, by directly administering schools, hospitals and all movement.

"People and the resistance are finding themselves targets of the occupation and government forces on the one hand, and Al-Qaeda's Islamic State in Iraq on the other," an Iraqi journalist told Al-Ahram Weekly.

According to informed sources close to at least two resistance groups, the Iraqi resistance, though engaging Al-Qaeda when forced to, is still seeking to avoid an all-out confrontation, even if Al-Qaeda seeks it. Nonetheless, the situation seems to be escalating on a daily basis, with many Iraqi nationalist activists who support the resistance fearing that "occupation forces are benefiting the most from Al-Qaeda's actions."

* The writer is a US-based journalist.

© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved

Al-Ahram Weekly Online

Thursday, April 12, 2007

The Iraqi resistance only exists to end the occupation

The escalating attacks are not usually aimed at civilians, but are a direct response to the brutal actions of US-led troops

Haifa Zangana
Thursday April 12, 2007
The Guardian


In Muqdadiyah, 50 miles from Baghdad, a woman wearing a traditional Iraqi abaya blew herself up this week in the midst of Iraqi police recruits. This was the seventh suicide attack by a women since the Anglo-American invasion in 2003, and an act unheard of before that. Iraqi women are driven to despair and self-destruction by grief. Their expectations are reduced to pleas for help to clear the bodies of the dead from the streets, according to a report by the international committee of the Red Cross, released yesterday. It's the same frustration that drew hundreds of thousands to demonstrate against foreign forces in Najaf on Monday.

In the fifth year of occupation, the sectarian and ethnic divide between politicians, parties and their warring militias has become monstrous, turning on its creators in the Green Zone and beyond, and not sparing ordinary people. One of the consequences is a major change in the public role of women.

During the first three years of occupation women were mostly confined to their homes, protected by male relatives. But now that the savagery of their circumstances has propelled many of them to the head of their households, they are risking their lives outdoors. Since men are the main target of US-led troops, militias and death squads, black-cloaked women are seen queuing at prisons, government offices or morgues, in search of disappeared, or detained, male relatives. It is women who bury the dead. Baghdad has become a city of bereaved women. But contrary to what we are told by the occupation and its puppet regime, this is not the only city that is subject to the brutality that forces thousands of Iraqis to flee their country every month.

Bodies are found across the country from Mosul to Kirkuk to Basra. They are handcuffed, blindfolded and bullet-ridden, bearing signs of torture. They are dumped at roadsides or found floating in the Tigris or Euphrates. A friend of mine who found her brother's body in a hospital's fridge told me how she checked his body and was relieved. "He was not tortured", she said. "He was just shot in the head."

Occupation has left no room for any initiative independent of the officially sanctioned political process; for a peaceful opposition or civil society that could create networks to bridge the politically manufactured divide. Only the mosque can fulfil this role. In the absence of the state, some mosques provide basic services, running clinics or schools. In addition to the call to prayer, their loudspeakers warn people of impending attacks or to appeal for blood donors.

But these attempts to sustain a sense of community are regularly crushed. On Tuesday, troops from the Iraqi army, supported by US helicopters, raided a mosque in the heart of old Baghdad. The well-respected muazzin Abu Saif and another civilian were executed in public. Local people were outraged and attacked the troops. At the end of the day, 34 people had been killed, including a number of women and children. As usual, the summary execution and the massacre that followed were blamed on insurgents. The military statement said US and Iraqi forces were continuing to "locate, identify, and engage and kill insurgents targeting coalition and Iraqi security forces in the area".

It is important to recognise that the resistance was born not only of ideological, religious and patriotic convictions, but also as a response to the reality of the brutal actions of the occupation and its administration. It is a response to arbitrary break-ins, humiliating searches, arrests, detention and torture. According to the Red Cross, "the number of people arrested or interned by the multinational forces has increased by 40% since early 2006. The number of people held by the Iraqi authorities has also increased significantly."

Many of the security detainees are women who have been subjected to abuse and rape and who are often arrested as a means to force male relatives to confess to crimes they have not committed. According to the Iraqi MP Mohamed al-Dainey, there are 65 documented cases of women's rape in occupation detention centres in 2006. Four women currently face execution - the death penalty for women was outlawed in Iraq from 1965 until 2004 - for allegedly killing security force members. These are accusations they deny and Amnesty International has challenged.

There is only one solution to this disaster, and that is for the US and Britain to accept that the Iraqi resistance is fighting to end the occupation. And to acknowlege that it consists of ordinary Iraqis, not only al-Qaida, not just Sunnis or Shias, not those terrorists - as Tony Blair called them - inspired by neighbouring countries such as Iran. To recognise that Iraqis are proud, peace-loving people, and that they hate occuption, not each other. And to understand that the main targets of the resistance are not Iraqi civilians. According to Brookings, the independent US research institute, 75% of recorded attacks are directed at occupation forces, and a further 17% at Iraqi government forces. The average number of attacks has more than doubled in the past year to about 185 a day. That is 1,300 a week, and more than 5,500 a month.

Another way of understanding this is that in any one hour, day or night, there are seven or eight new attacks. Without the Iraqi people's support, directly and indirectly, this level of resistance would not have happened.

· Haifa Zangana, an Iraqi exile who was imprisoned by Saddam Hussein, is the author of Women on a Journey: Between Baghdad and London
haifa_zangana@yahoo.co.uk


Haifa Zangana is a novelist and former prisoner of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime. She is a weekly columnist for al-Quds newspaper and an occasional commentator for the Guardian, Red Pepper and al-Ahram Weekly. She lectures regularly on Iraqi culture, literature, and women issues.

Born in Baghdad in 1950, she worked with the PLO in Damascus, Syria, in 1975, and has lived in London since 1976. As a painter and writer, she participated in various European and American surrealist publications and group exhibitions in the 80s, and performed one-woman shows in London and Iceland.

She has worked as an adviser for the United Nations Development Programme, writing a report on empowerment of women in the Arab world, and as a member of the advisory board of a Brussels tribunal on Iraq. She co-founded Act Together: Women Action for Iraq and is the chair of Iraqi Patriots in Media and Culture (IPMC). She was a founding member of the International Association of Contemporary Iraqi Studies (IACIS), and edited and published Halabja, a homage to the eponymous Kurdish town by Iraqi and Arab writers and artists.

Through the Vast Halls of Memory, her biographical novel, was published in English by Hourglass in 1990, reprinted in 1991, and published in Arabic in 1995. Three collections of short stories followed: The Ant’s Nest (1996), Beyond What the Eye Sees (1997) and The Presence of Others (1999). She has since published two more novels: Keys to a City in 2000 and Women on a Journey in 2001.

Publications include:

A piece in Not One More Death, a collection of writings against the Iraq war/occupation. STW and Verso, March 2006

A translation of her novel Women on a Journey. Texas University Press, December 2006

The Three Cyclops of Empire: Targeting the Fabric of Iraqi Society, a chapter in Empire’s Law, Pluto, February 2006

Colonial Feminist: from Washington to Baghdad, a chapter in Barriers to Reconciliation, Washington DC University Press, 2006

Packaged Lives, a collection of short stories in Arabic, Dar Al Sawad.

Forthcoming publications include:

Interrupted struggle: A short history of women in Iraq, Seven Stories NY, autumn 2007

A translation of Women on a Journey. Texas University Press, spring 2007

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

British pawns in an Iranian game

The Iranian seizure of 15 British sailors may be much cleverer than it appears. Oil has moved above US$60 a barrel as a result of the incident. And if Tehran drags out proceedings, the Shi'ites in southern Iraq may take the hint and accelerate a confrontation, and even start merging with strands of the Sunni resistance.

Mar 29, 2007 Publish

THE ROVING EYE

By Pepe Escobar

The 15 British sailors and marines who were patrolling the Shatt-al-Arab - or Arvand Roud, as it is known in Iran - were not exactly indulging in a little bit of Rod Stewart ("I am sailing/stormy waters/to be with you/to be free"). They had their guns loaded. These would certainly have been fired against Iraqi smugglers - or, better yet, the Iraqi resistance, Sunni or Shi'ite. But suddenly the British were confronted not by Iraqi but by Iranian gunboats.

This correspondent has been to the Shatt-al-Arab. It's a busy and tricky waterway, to say the least. Iraqi fishing boats share the waters with Iranian patrol boats. From the Iraqi shore one can see the Iranian shore, flags aflutter. These remain extremely disputed waters. In 1975, a treaty was signed in Algiers between the shah of Iran and Saddam Hussein. The center of the river was supposed to be the border. Then Saddam invaded Iran in 1980. After the Iran-Iraq War that this sparked ended in 1988, and even after both Gulf wars, things remain perilously inconclusive: a new treaty still has not been signed.

The British are adamant that the sailors were in Iraqi waters checking for cars, not weapons, being smuggled. It's almost laughable that the Royal Navy should be reduced to finding dangerous Toyotas in the Persian Gulf. Some reports from Tehran claim the British were actually checking Iranian military preparations ahead of a possible confrontation with the US.

Western corporate media overwhelmingly take for granted that the British were in Iraqi or "international" waters (wrong: these are disputed Iran/Iraq waters). Tehran has accused the British of "blatant aggression" and reminded world public opinion "this is not the first time that Britain commits such illegal acts" (which is true). Tehran diplomats later suggested that the British might be charged with espionage (which is actually the case in Khuzestan province in Iran, conducted by US Special Forces).

Chess matters
The coverage of the sensitive Shatt-al-Arab incident in the Iranian press was quite a smash: initially there was none. Everything was closed for Nowrouz - the one-week Iranian New Year holiday. But this has not prevented radicalization.

Hardliners like the Republican Guards and the Basiji - Iran's volunteer Islamist militia - asked the government of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad not to release the sailors until the five Iranian diplomats arrested by the US in Iraq were freed. They also demanded that the new United Nations sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program be scrapped. And all this was under the watchful eyes (and ears) of the US Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain.

Much of the Western press assumed Iran wanted Western hostages to exchange for the five Iranian diplomats, without ever questioning the Pentagon's illegal capture of the Iranians in the first place. Then the plot was amplified as an Ahmadinejad diversion tactic as the UN Security Council worked out a new resolution for more sanctions on Iran and as Russia told Tehran to come up with the outstanding money or the Bushehr nuclear plant it is building in Iran would not be finished.

The Shatt-al-Arab incident has been linked to an Iranian response to Washington's accusations that Tehran is helping Shi'ite militias with funds, weapons and training in Iraq. For the record, Iran's ambassador in Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, said there is absolutely no connection: "They entered Iranian territorial waters and were arrested. It has nothing to do with other issues." Not surprisingly, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had to take the side of the occupiers who installed him in his post: he said the British were in Iraq invited by the Iraqi government and were operating in Iraqi waters.

This doesn't stop people, especially in the Islamic world, questioning what business the British, as an occupation force, had in the Shatt-al-Arab to start with.

From the depths of their abysmal, recent historical experience, even the Arab world - which is not so fond of Persians - sees the US-orchestrated UN sanctions on Iran for what they are: the West, once again, trying to smash an independent nation daring to have its shot at more influence in the Middle East. More sanctions will be useless as China and India will continue to do serious business with Iran.

Tactically, as a backgammon or, better yet, chess move - in which Iranians excel - the Shatt-al-Arab incident may be much more clever than it appears. Oil is establishing itself well above US$60 a barrel as a result of the incident, and that's good for Iran. It's true that from London's point of view, the incident could have been arranged as a provocation, part of a mischievous plan to escalate the conflict with Iran and turn Western and possibly world public opinion against the regime.

But from Tehran's point of view, for all purposes British Prime Minister Tony Blair is a soft target. The episode has the potential to paralyze both President George W Bush and Blair. Neither can use the incident to start a war with Iran, although Blair has warned that his government is prepared to move to "a different phase" if Iran does not quickly release the sailors.

If the Tehran leadership decides to drag out the proceedings, the Shi'ites in southern Iraq, already exasperated by the British (as they were in the 1920s), may take the hint and accelerate a confrontation. Strands of the Shi'ite resistance may start merging with strands of the Sunni resistance (that's what Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has wanted all along). And this would prove once again that you don't need nuclear weapons when you excel at playing chess.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.

Khalilzad's bogus talks with Iraq's resistance

The Times, in its farewell paeon to departing Ambassador Khalilzad, headlines the least-secret secret of his tenure in Baghdad: that he held talks with representatives of Iraq's resistance:

The senior American envoy in Iraq, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, held talks last year with men he believed represented major insurgent groups in a drive to bring militant Sunni Arabs into politics.

“There were discussions with the representatives of various groups in the aftermath of the elections, and during the formation of the government before the Samarra incident, and some discussions afterwards as well,” Mr. Khalilzad said in a farewell interview on Friday at his home inside the fortified Green Zone. He is the first American official to publicly acknowledge holding such talks.

The meetings began in early 2006 and were quite possibly the first attempts at sustained contact between senior American officials here and the Sunni Arab insurgency. Mr. Khalilzad flew to Jordan for some of the talks, which included self-identified representatives of the Islamic Army of Iraq and the 1920 Revolution Brigades, two leading nationalist factions, American and Iraqi officials said. Mr. Khalilzad declined to give details on the meetings, but other officials said the efforts had foundered by the summer, after the bombing of a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra set off waves of sectarian violence.

The talks were widely reported, beginning as long ago as 2005. They collapsed not because of the post-Samarra "sectarian violence," but simply because the United States isn't willing to go even halfway toward meeting the insurgents' demands.

Those demands were described, accurately, by none other than Ahmed Chalabi, in the Times piece:

Ahmad Chalabi, an Iraqi politician who is a friend of Mr. Khalilzad, said the talks fizzled out partly because the insurgents’ representatives made untenable demands. They asked for a suspension of the Constitution, breakup of Parliament, a reinstatement of the old Iraqi Army and establishment of a new government, he said.

That's pretty much correct, although Chalabi ignores the reality that the central demand of the resistance (the non-Al Qaeda-linked mainstream resistance) is the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, in exchange for which they're willing to declare a ceasefire. The Bush administration, of course, isn't willing to consider that.

Interesting, though, that the Times calls Chalabi a "friend of Mr.Khalilzad." Also, in its piece, the Times forthrightly calls Khalilzad a "neoconservative," which describes him exactly. (At a speaking engagement last fall, when I called Khalilzad a neoconservative, I was strongly criticized for saying so by Judith Kipper.) In any case, neocon Khalilzad, friend of Chalabi, is leaving Iraq.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

The Politics of Naming: Genocide, Civil War, Insurgency

London Review of Books | Vol. 29 No. 5 8 March 2007

By Mahmood Mamdani

CONTROVERSY: Logo for the savedarfur.org, one of several orgs demanding intervention in the Sudan by the very people who intervened so selflessly in Iraq. Darfur should be a cautionary tale for easily misguided liberals, who apparently never learn, while it presents an opportunity for business for Western-based, corporate-styled human-calamity agencies, such as Save the Children, who find a raison d'etre in ministering to the stubborn wounds caused by backwardness, and the effects of colonialism and neocolonialism inflicted by the very establishments of which they form an integral part. And the Darfur tragedy reminds us, once again, how important it is to use the right words in a modern world dominated by far from impartial powerful propaganda machines.—The Editors, Cyrano's Journal

March 24, 2006

The similarities between Iraq and Darfur are remarkable. The estimate of the number of civilians killed over the past three years is roughly similar. The killers are mostly paramilitaries, closely linked to the official military, which is said to be their main source of arms. The victims too are by and large identified as members of groups, rather than targeted as individuals. But the violence in the two places is named differently. In Iraq, it is said to be a cycle of insurgency and counter-insurgency; in Darfur, it is called genocide. Why the difference? Who does the naming? Who is being named? What difference does it make?

The most powerful mobilisation in New York City is in relation to Darfur, not Iraq. One would expect the reverse, for no other reason than that most New Yorkers are American citizens and so should feel directly responsible for the violence in occupied Iraq. But Iraq is a messy place in the American imagination, a place with messy politics. Americans worry about what their government should do in Iraq. Should it withdraw? What would happen if it did? In contrast, there is nothing messy about Darfur. It is a place without history and without politics; simply a site where perpetrators clearly identifiable as 'Arabs' confront victims clearly identifiable as 'Africans'.

A full-page advertisement has appeared several times a week in the New York Times calling for intervention in Darfur now. It wants the intervening forces to be placed under 'a chain of command allowing necessary and timely military action without approval from distant political or civilian personnel'. That intervention in Darfur should not be subject to 'political or civilian' considerations and that the intervening forces should have the right to shoot - to kill - without permission from distant places: these are said to be 'humanitarian' demands. In the same vein, a New Republic editorial on Darfur has called for 'force as a first-resort response'. What makes the situation even more puzzling is that some of those who are calling for an end to intervention in Iraq are demanding an intervention in Darfur; as the slogan goes, 'Out of Iraq and into Darfur.'

What would happen if we thought of Darfur as we do of Iraq, as a place with a history and politics - a messy politics of insurgency and counter-insurgency? Why should an intervention in Darfur not turn out to be a trigger that escalates rather than reduces the level of violence as intervention in Iraq has done? Why might it not create the actual possibility of genocide, not just rhetorically but in reality? Morally, there is no doubt about the horrific nature of the violence against civilians in Darfur. The ambiguity lies in the politics of the violence, whose sources include both a state-connected counter-insurgency and an organised insurgency, very much like the violence in Iraq.

The insurgency and counter-insurgency in Darfur began in 2003. Both were driven by an intermeshing of domestic tensions in the context of a peace-averse international environment defined by the War on Terror. On the one hand, there was a struggle for power within the political class in Sudan, with more marginal interests in the west (following those in the south and in the east) calling for reform at the centre. On the other, there was a community-level split inside Darfur, between nomads and settled farmers, who had earlier forged a way of sharing the use of semi-arid land in the dry season. With the drought that set in towards the late 1970s, co-operation turned into an intense struggle over diminishing resources.

As the insurgency took root among the prospering peasant tribes of Darfur, the government trained and armed the poorer nomads and formed a militia - the Janjawiid - that became the vanguard of the unfolding counter-insurgency. The worst violence came from the Janjawiid, but the insurgent movements were also accused of gross violations. Anyone wanting to end the spiralling violence would have to bring about power-sharing at the state level and resource-sharing at the community level, land being the key resource.

Since its onset, two official verdicts have been delivered on the violence, the first from the US, the second from the UN. The American verdict was unambiguous: Darfur was the site of an ongoing genocide. The chain of events leading to Washington's proclamation began with 'a genocide alert' from the Management Committee of the Washington Holocaust Memorial Museum; according to the Jerusalem Post, the alert was 'the first ever of its kind, issued by the US Holocaust Museum'. The House of Representatives followed unanimously on 24 June 2004. The last to join the chorus was Colin Powell.

The UN Commission on Darfur was created in the aftermath of the American verdict and in response to American pressure. It was more ambiguous. In September 2004, the Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, then the chair of the African Union, visited UN headquarters in New York. Darfur had been the focal point of discussion in the African Union. All concerned were alert to the extreme political sensitivity of the issue. At a press conference at the UN on 23 September Obasanjo was asked to pronounce on the violence in Darfur: was it genocide or not? His response was very clear:

Before you can say that this is genocide or ethnic cleansing, we will have to have a definite decision and plan and programme of a government to wipe out a particular group of people, then we will be talking about genocide, ethnic cleansing. What we know is not that. What we know is that there was an uprising, rebellion, and the government armed another group of people to stop that rebellion. That's what we know. That does not amount to genocide from our own reckoning. It amounts to of course conflict. It amounts to violence.

By October, the Security Council had established a five-person commission of inquiry on Darfur and asked it to report within three months on 'violations of international humanitarian law and human rights law in Darfur by all parties', and specifically to determine 'whether or not acts of genocide have occurred'. Among the members of the commission was the chief prosecutor of South Africa's TRC, Dumisa Ntsebeza. In its report, submitted on 25 January 2005, the commission concluded that 'the Government of the Sudan has not pursued a policy of genocide . . . directly or through the militias under its control.' But the commission did find that the government's violence was 'deliberately and indiscriminately directed against civilians'. Indeed, 'even where rebels may have been present in villages, the impact of attacks on civilians shows that the use of military force was manifestly disproportionate to any threat posed by the rebels.' These acts, the commission concluded, 'were conducted on a widespread and systematic basis, and therefore may amount to crimes against humanity' (my emphasis). Yet, the commission insisted, they did not amount to acts of genocide: 'The crucial element of genocidal intent appears to be missing . . . it would seem that those who planned and organised attacks on villages pursued the intent to drive the victims from their homes, primarily for purposes of counter-insurgency warfare.'

At the same time, the commission assigned secondary responsibility to rebel forces - namely, members of the Sudan Liberation Army and the Justice and Equality Movement - which it held 'responsible for serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law which may amount to war crimes' (my emphasis). If the government stood accused of 'crimes against humanity', rebel movements were accused of 'war crimes'. Finally, the commission identified individual perpetrators and presented the UN secretary-general with a sealed list that included 'officials of the government of Sudan, members of militia forces, members of rebel groups and certain foreign army officers acting in their personal capacity'. The list named 51 individuals.

The commission's findings highlighted three violations of international law: disproportionate response, conducted on a widespread and systematic basis, targeting entire groups (as opposed to identifiable individuals) but without the intention to eliminate them as groups. It is for this last reason that the commission ruled out the finding of genocide. Its less grave findings of 'crimes against humanity' and 'war crimes' are not unique to Darfur, but fit several other situations of extreme violence: in particular, the US occupation of Iraq, the Hema-Lendu violence in eastern Congo and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Among those in the counter-insurgency accused of war crimes were the 'foreign army officers acting in their personal capacity', i.e. mercenaries, presumably recruited from armed forces outside Sudan. The involvement of mercenaries in perpetrating gross violence also fits the occupation in Iraq, where some of them go by the name of 'contractors'.

The journalist in the US most closely identified with consciousness-raising on Darfur is the New York Times op-ed columnist Nicholas Kristof, often identified as a lone crusader on the issue. To peruse Kristof's Darfur columns over the past three years is to see the reduction of a complex political context to a morality tale unfolding in a world populated by villains and victims who never trade places and so can always and easily be told apart. It is a world where atrocities mount geometrically, the perpetrators so evil and the victims so helpless that the only possibility of relief is a rescue mission from the outside, preferably in the form of a military intervention.

Kristof made six highly publicised trips to Darfur, the first in March 2004 and the sixth two years later. He began by writing of it as a case of 'ethnic cleansing': 'Sudan's Arab rulers' had 'forced 700,000 black African Sudanese to flee their villages' (24 March 2004). Only three days later, he upped the ante: this was no longer ethnic cleansing, but genocide. 'Right now,' he wrote on 27 March, 'the government of Sudan is engaged in genocide against three large African tribes in its Darfur region.' He continued: 'The killings are being orchestrated by the Arab-dominated Sudanese government' and 'the victims are non-Arabs: blacks in the Zaghawa, Massalliet and Fur tribes.' He estimated the death toll at a thousand a week. Two months later, on 29 May, he revised the estimates dramatically upwards, citing predictions from the US Agency for International Development to the effect that 'at best, "only" 100,000 people will die in Darfur this year of malnutrition and disease' but 'if things go badly, half a million will die.'

The UN commission's report was released on 25 February 2005. It confirmed 'massive displacement' of persons ('more than a million' internally displaced and 'more than 200,000' refugees in Chad) and the destruction of 'several hundred' villages and hamlets as 'irrefutable facts'; but it gave no confirmed numbers for those killed. Instead, it noted rebel claims that government-allied forces had 'allegedly killed over 70,000 persons'. Following the publication of the report, Kristof began to scale down his estimates. For the first time, on 23 February 2005, he admitted that 'the numbers are fuzzy.' Rather than the usual single total, he went on to give a range of figures, from a low of 70,000, which he dismissed as 'a UN estimate', to 'independent estimates [that] exceed 220,000'. A warning followed: 'and the number is rising by about ten thousand a month.'

The publication of the commission's report had considerable effect. Internationally, it raised doubts about whether what was going on in Darfur could be termed genocide. Even US officials were unwilling to go along with the high estimates propagated by the broad alliance of organisations that subscribe to the Save Darfur campaign. The effect on American diplomacy was discernible. Three months later, on 3 May, Kristof noted with dismay that not only had 'Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick pointedly refused to repeat the administration's past judgment that the killings amount to genocide': he had 'also cited an absurdly low estimate of Darfur's total death toll: 60,000 to 160,000'. As an alternative, Kristof cited the latest estimate of deaths from the Coalition for International Justice as 'nearly 400,000, and rising by 500 a day'. In three months, Kristof's estimates had gone up from 10,000 to 15,000 a month. Six months later, on 27 November, Kristof warned that 'if aid groups pull out . . . the death toll could then rise to 100,000 a month.' Anyone keeping a tally of the death toll in Darfur as reported in the Kristof columns would find the rise, fall and rise again very bewildering. First he projected the number of dead at 320,000 for 2004 (16 June 2004) but then gave a scaled down estimate of between 70,000 and 220,000 (23 February 2005). The number began once more to climb to 'nearly 400,000' (3 May 2005), only to come down yet again to 300,000 (23 April 2006). Each time figures were given with equal confidence but with no attempt to explain their basis. Did the numbers reflect an actual decline in the scale of killing in Darfur or was Kristof simply making an adjustment to the changing mood internationally?

In the 23 April column, Kristof expanded the list of perpetrators to include an external power: 'China is now underwriting its second genocide in three decades. The first was in Pol Pot's Cambodia, and the second is in Darfur, Sudan. Chinese oil purchases have financed Sudan's pillage of Darfur, Chinese-made AK-47s have been the main weapons used to slaughter several hundred thousand people in Darfur so far and China has protected Sudan in the UN Security Council.' In the Kristof columns, there is one area of deafening silence, to do with the fact that what is happening in Darfur is a civil war. Hardly a word is said about the insurgency, about the civilian deaths insurgents mete out, about acts that the commission characterised as 'war crimes'. Would the logic of his 23 April column not lead one to think that those with connections to the insurgency, some of them active in the international campaign to declare Darfur the site of genocide, were also guilty of 'underwriting' war crimes in Darfur?

Newspaper writing on Darfur has sketched a pornography of violence. It seems fascinated by and fixated on the gory details, describing the worst of the atrocities in gruesome detail and chronicling the rise in the number of them. The implication is that the motivation of the perpetrators lies in biology ('race') and, if not that, certainly in 'culture'. This voyeuristic approach accompanies a moralistic discourse whose effect is both to obscure the politics of the violence and position the reader as a virtuous, not just a concerned observer.

Journalism gives us a simple moral world, where a group of perpetrators face a group of victims, but where neither history nor motivation is thinkable because both are outside history and context. Even when newspapers highlight violence as a social phenomenon, they fail to understand the forces that shape the agency of the perpetrator. Instead, they look for a clear and uncomplicated moral that describes the victim as untainted and the perpetrator as simply evil. Where yesterday's victims are today's perpetrators, where victims have turned perpetrators, this attempt to find an African replay of the Holocaust not only does not work but also has perverse consequences. Whatever its analytical weaknesses, the depoliticisation of violence has given its proponents distinct political advantages.

The conflict in Darfur is highly politicised, and so is the international campaign. One of the campaign's constant refrains has been that the ongoing genocide is racial: 'Arabs' are trying to eliminate 'Africans'. But both 'Arab' and 'African' have several meanings in Sudan. There have been at least three meanings of 'Arab'. Locally, 'Arab' was a pejorative reference to the lifestyle of the nomad as uncouth; regionally, it referred to someone whose primary language was Arabic. In this sense, a group could become 'Arab' over time. This process, known as Arabisation, was not an anomaly in the region: there was Amharisation in Ethiopia and Swahilisation on the East African coast. The third meaning of 'Arab' was 'privileged and exclusive'; it was the claim of the riverine political aristocracy who had ruled Sudan since independence, and who equated Arabisation with the spread of civilisation and being Arab with descent.

'African', in this context, was a subaltern identity that also had the potential of being either exclusive or inclusive. The two meanings were not only contradictory but came from the experience of two different insurgencies. The inclusive meaning was more political than racial or even cultural (linguistic), in the sense that an 'African' was anyone determined to make a future within Africa. It was pioneered by John Garang, the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in the south, as a way of holding together the New Sudan he hoped to see. In contrast, its exclusive meaning came in two versions, one hard (racial) and the other soft (linguistic) - 'African' as Bantu and 'African' as the identity of anyone who spoke a language indigenous to Africa. The racial meaning came to take a strong hold in both the counter-insurgency and the insurgency in Darfur. The Save Darfur campaign's characterisation of the violence as 'Arab' against 'African' obscured both the fact that the violence was not one-sided and the contest over the meaning of 'Arab' and 'African': a contest that was critical precisely because it was ultimately about who belonged and who did not in the political community called Sudan. The depoliticisation, naturalisation and, ultimately, demonisation of the notion 'Arab', as against 'African', has been the deadliest effect, whether intended or not, of the Save Darfur campaign.

The depoliticisation of the conflict gave campaigners three advantages. First, they were able to occupy the moral high ground. The campaign presented itself as apolitical but moral, its concern limited only to saving lives. Second, only a single-issue campaign could bring together in a unified chorus forces that are otherwise ranged as adversaries on most important issues of the day: at one end, the Christian right and the Zionist lobby; at the other, a mainly school and university-based peace movement. Nat Hentoff of the Village Voice wrote of the Save Darfur Coalition as 'an alliance of more than 515 faith-based, humanitarian and human rights organisations'; among the organisers of their Rally to Stop the Genocide in Washington last year were groups as diverse as the American Jewish World Service, the American Society for Muslim Advancement, the National Association of Evangelicals, the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, the US Holocaust Memorial Museum, the American Anti-Slavery Group, Amnesty International, Christian Solidarity International, Physicians for Human Rights and the National Black Church Initiative. Surely, such a wide coalition would cease to hold together if the issue shifted to, say, Iraq.

To understand the third advantage, we have to return to the question I asked earlier: how could it be that many of those calling for an end to the American and British intervention in Iraq are demanding an intervention in Darfur? It's tempting to think that the advantage of Darfur lies in its being a small, faraway place where those who drive the War on Terror do not have a vested interest. That this is hardly the case is evident if one compares the American response to Darfur to its non-response to Congo, even though the dimensions of the conflict in Congo seem to give it a mega-Darfur quality: the numbers killed are estimated in the millions rather than the hundreds of thousands; the bulk of the killing, particularly in Kivu, is done by paramilitaries trained, organised and armed by neighbouring governments; and the victims on both sides - Hema and Lendu - are framed in collective rather than individual terms, to the point that one influential version defines both as racial identities and the conflict between the two as a replay of the Rwandan genocide. Given all this, how does one explain the fact that the focus of the most widespread and ambitious humanitarian movement in the US is on Darfur and not on Kivu?

Nicholas Kristof was asked this very question by a university audience: 'When I spoke at Cornell University recently, a woman asked why I always harp on Darfur. It's a fair question. The number of people killed in Darfur so far is modest in global terms: estimates range from 200,000 to more than 500,000. In contrast, four million people have died since 1998 as a result of the fighting in Congo, the most lethal conflict since World War Two.' But instead of answering the question, Kristof - now writing his column rather than facing the questioner at Cornell - moved on: 'And malaria annually kills one million to three million people - meaning that three years' deaths in Darfur are within the margin of error of the annual global toll from malaria.' And from there he went on to compare the deaths in Darfur to the deaths from malaria, rather than from the conflict in Congo: 'We have a moral compass within us and its needle is moved not only by human suffering but also by human evil. That's what makes genocide special - not just the number of deaths but the government policy behind them. And that in turn is why stopping genocide should be an even higher priority than saving lives from Aids or malaria.' That did not explain the relative silence on Congo. Could the reason be that in the case of Congo, Hema and Lendu militias - many of them no more than child soldiers - were trained by America's allies in the region, Rwanda and Uganda? Is that why the violence in Darfur - but not the violence in Kivu - is named as a genocide?

It seems that genocide has become a label to be stuck on your worst enemy, a perverse version of the Nobel Prize, part of a rhetorical arsenal that helps you vilify your adversaries while ensuring impunity for your allies. In Kristof's words, the point is not so much 'human suffering' as 'human evil'. Unlike Kivu, Darfur can be neatly integrated into the War on Terror, for Darfur gives the Warriors on Terror a valuable asset with which to demonise an enemy: a genocide perpetrated by Arabs. This was the third and most valuable advantage that Save Darfur gained from depoliticising the conflict. The more thoroughly Darfur was integrated into the War on Terror, the more the depoliticised violence in Darfur acquired a racial description, as a genocide of 'Arabs' killing 'Africans'. Racial difference purportedly constituted the motive force behind the mass killings. The irony of Kristof's columns is that they mirror the ideology of Arab supremacism in Sudan by demonising entire communities.[*]

Kristof chides Arab peoples and the Arab press for not having the moral fibre to respond to this Muslim-on-Muslim violence, presumably because it is a violence inflicted by Arab Muslims on African Muslims. In one of his early columns in 2004, he was outraged by the silence of Muslim leaders: 'Do they care about dead Muslims only when the killers are Israelis or Americans?' Two years later he asked: 'And where is the Arab press? Isn't the murder of 300,000 or more Muslims almost as offensive as a Danish cartoon?' Six months later, Kristof pursued this line on NBC's Today Show. Elaborating on the 'real blind spot' in the Muslim world, he said: 'You are beginning to get some voices in the Muslim world . . . saying it's appalling that you have evangelical Christians and American Jews leading an effort to protect Muslims in Sudan and in Chad.'

If many of the leading lights in the Darfur campaign are fired by moral indignation, this derives from two events: the Nazi Holocaust and the Rwandan genocide. After all, the seeds of the Save Darfur campaign lie in the tenth-anniversary commemoration of what happened in Rwanda. Darfur is today a metaphor for senseless violence in politics, as indeed Rwanda was a decade before. Most writing on the Rwandan genocide in the US was also done by journalists. In We wish to inform you that tomorrow we will be killed with our families, the most widely read book on the genocide, Philip Gourevitch envisaged Rwanda as a replay of the Holocaust, with Hutu cast as perpetrators and Tutsi as victims. Again, the encounter between the two seemed to take place outside any context, as part of an eternal encounter between evil and innocence. Many of the journalists who write about Darfur have Rwanda very much in the back of their minds. In December 2004, Kristof recalled the lessons of Rwanda: 'Early in his presidency, Mr Bush read a report about Bill Clinton's paralysis during the Rwandan genocide and scrawled in the margin: "Not on my watch." But in fact the same thing is happening on his watch, and I find that heartbreaking and baffling.'

With very few exceptions, the Save Darfur campaign has drawn a single lesson from Rwanda: the problem was the US failure to intervene to stop the genocide. Rwanda is the guilt that America must expiate, and to do so it must be ready to intervene, for good and against evil, even globally. That lesson is inscribed at the heart of Samantha Power's book, A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide. But it is the wrong lesson. The Rwandan genocide was born of a civil war which intensified when the settlement to contain it broke down. The settlement, reached at the Arusha Conference, broke down because neither the Hutu Power tendency nor the Tutsi-dominated Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) had any interest in observing the power-sharing arrangement at the core of the settlement: the former because it was excluded from the settlement and the latter because it was unwilling to share power in any meaningful way.

What the humanitarian intervention lobby fails to see is that the US did intervene in Rwanda, through a proxy. That proxy was the RPF, backed up by entire units from the Uganda Army. The green light was given to the RPF, whose commanding officer, Paul Kagame, had recently returned from training in the US, just as it was lately given to the Ethiopian army in Somalia. Instead of using its resources and influence to bring about a political solution to the civil war, and then strengthen it, the US signalled to one of the parties that it could pursue victory with impunity. This unilateralism was part of what led to the disaster, and that is the real lesson of Rwanda. Applied to Darfur and Sudan, it is sobering. It means recognising that Darfur is not yet another Rwanda. Nurturing hopes of an external military intervention among those in the insurgency who aspire to victory and reinforcing the fears of those in the counter-insurgency who see it as a prelude to defeat are precisely the ways to ensure that it becomes a Rwanda. Strengthening those on both sides who stand for a political settlement to the civil war is the only realistic approach. Solidarity, not intervention, is what will bring peace to Darfur.

The dynamic of civil war in Sudan has fed on multiple sources: first, the post-independence monopoly of power enjoyed by a tiny 'Arabised' elite from the riverine north of Khartoum, a monopoly that has bred growing resistance among the majority, marginalised populations in the south, east and west of the country; second, the rebel movements which have in their turn bred ambitious leaders unwilling to enter into power-sharing arrangements as a prelude to peace; and, finally, external forces that continue to encourage those who are interested in retaining or obtaining a monopoly of power.

The dynamic of peace, by contrast, has fed on a series of power-sharing arrangements, first in the south and then in the east. This process has been intermittent in Darfur. African Union-organised negotiations have been successful in forging a power-sharing arrangement, but only for that arrangement to fall apart time and again. A large part of the explanation, as I suggested earlier, lies in the international context of the War on Terror, which favours parties who are averse to taking risks for peace. To reinforce the peace process must be the first commitment of all those interested in Darfur.

The camp of peace needs to come to a second realisation: that peace cannot be built on humanitarian intervention, which is the language of big powers. The history of colonialism should teach us that every major intervention has been justified as humanitarian, a 'civilising mission'. Nor was it mere idiosyncrasy that inspired the devotion with which many colonial officers and archivists recorded the details of barbarity among the colonised - sati, the ban on widow marriage or the practice of child marriage in India, or slavery and female genital mutilation in Africa. I am not suggesting that this was all invention. I mean only to point out that the chronicling of atrocities had a practical purpose: it provided the moral pretext for intervention. Now, as then, imperial interventions claim to have a dual purpose: on the one hand, to rescue minority victims of ongoing barbarities and, on the other, to quarantine majority perpetrators with the stated aim of civilising them. Iraq should act as a warning on this score. The worst thing in Darfur would be an Iraq-style intervention. That would almost certainly spread the civil war to other parts of Sudan, unravelling the peace process in the east and south and dragging the whole country into the global War on Terror.

Footnotes

* Contrast this with the UN commission's painstaking effort to make sense of the identities 'Arab' and 'African'. The commission's report concentrated on three related points. First, the claim that the Darfur conflict pitted 'Arab' against 'African' was facile. 'In fact, the commission found that many Arabs in Darfur are opposed to the Janjawiid, and some Arabs are fighting with the rebels, such as certain Arab commanders and their men from the Misseriya and Rizeigat tribes. At the same time, many non-Arabs are supporting the government and serving in its army.' Second, it has never been easy to sort different tribes into the categories 'Arab' and 'African': 'The various tribes that have been the object of attacks and killings (chiefly the Fur, Massalit and Zeghawa tribes) do not appear to make up ethnic groups distinct from the ethnic groups to which persons or militias that attack them belong. They speak the same language (Arabic) and embrace the same religion (Muslim). In addition, also due to the high measure of intermarriage, they can hardly be distinguished in their outward physical appearance from the members of tribes that allegedly attacked them. Apparently, the sedentary and nomadic character of the groups constitutes one of the main distinctions between them' (emphasis mine). Finally, the commission put forward the view that political developments are driving the rapidly growing distinction between 'Arab' and 'African'. On the one hand, 'Arab' and 'African' seem to have become political identities: 'Those tribes in Darfur who support rebels have increasingly come to be identified as "African" and those supporting the government as the "Arabs". A good example to illustrate this is that of the Gimmer, a pro-government African tribe that is seen by the African tribes opposed to the government as having been "Arabised".' On the other hand, this development was being promoted from the outside: 'The Arab-African divide has also been fanned by the growing insistence on such divide in some circles and in the media.'


Mahmood Mamdani (b. 1947 in Kampala, Uganda) is the Herbert Lehman Professor of Government in the Departments of Anthropology and Political Science at Columbia University. He is also the current President of the Council for Development of Social Research in Africa (CODESRIA) Dakar, Senegal. One of his best known books is When Victims Become Killers: Colonialism, Nativism and the Genocide in Rwanda (Princeton University Press, 2001). Mamdani's reputation as an expert in African history, politics and international relations has made him an important voice in contemporary debates about Africa. His book Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism (Princeton University Press, 1996) won the prestigious Herskovits Award of the African Studies Association of the USA (1998).

Thursday, March 22, 2007

After 4 years: Iraqi Resistance Indicators..Up and Up! Rumsfeld's Metrics..Wet!

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

مؤشر المقاومة العراقية
الأرقام المدرجة في الأشكال البيانية المدرجة هنا تبين إضطراد تطور المقاومة العراقية خلال السنين الأربعة الماضية. وهذه
المعلومات مستقاة من مؤشر العراق
حسب تحديث 19 مارس 2007
. The following graphs show the steady progress of the Iraqi resistance over the four years of occupation. They are extracted from the Iraq Index (pp 23 and 24) and updated on 19th March 2007.
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يبين الشكل الأول أن المعدل اليومي للهجمات المسلحة قد زاد بأكثر من الضعف خلال العام الماضي فوصل الى 185 عملية في اليوم الواحد. وهذا يعني 1300 عملية مسلحة في الأسبوع أو 5500 في الشهر. ويمكن فهم هذه الأرقام بتصور حدوث معدل 7 أو 8 هجوم بقذائف الهاون او القنص أو العبوة التاسفة وما شابه لكل ساعة من ساعات الليل والنهار.تمت أضافة كلمة "المليشيات" الى "المتمردين" في عنوان هذا الشكل البياني الذي يتم تحديثه يأستمرار مؤخرا، كجزء من اللغة الأعلامية للقوات الأمريكية في تغييراتها في الأونة الأخيرة. ويبين الشكلان اللاحقان أن هذه الأضافة تشير الى قوات الحماية الشعبية المنخرطة مع المقاومة العراقية. ـ

.The first graph shows that the average number of attacks have more than doubled in the last year to about 185 per day. That is 1300 per week, and over 5500 attacks per month. Another way of understanding this is that in any one hour, day and night, there are 7-8 new mortar attack, IED, sniper fire, etc. The figures are based on variety of official and semi-official US sources and estimates. The inclusion of ‘Militias’ in the title of the graph is recent, and seems linked to the evolving political vocabulary by the US. In the light of the two other items. Militia can be understood to refer to local vigilantes that are largely part of the resistance.

.الشكل اليياني الثاني يظهر ان 75% من جميع العمليات المسجلة ( المستندة هنا على التقارير الفصلية من وزارة الدفاع الأمريكية الى الكونغرس) موجهة الى قوات الإحتلال مباشرة، و17% ضد القوات الأمنية العراقية تحت الإحتلال. وال 8% الباقية موجهة ضد "المدنيين" بدون تحديد. وهذه، الأخيرة هي التي تطغي على الأعلام.
أن الأعداد الرسمية لقوات الحكومة قد تزايدت بإستمرار وتصل الأن الى 330 ألف. وهي غالبا ما تعمل مع القوات الأمريكية أو تسبقها أو تحمي مؤخراتها. أما بالنسبة لأستهداف المدنيين فمن غير المعروف نسبة الهجمات على المرتزقة ( وتسميهم التقارير الرسمية بالمتعاقدين) الذين يرتدون الملابس المدنية ويعمل الكثير منهم في المناطق المدنية، وتقدر الحكومة الأمريكية عددهم بال 100 ألف، بدون وجود إلتزام بتعدادهم، أو بتعداد ضحاياهم. كذلك لا تميز الأرقام الهجمات على وحدات حماية المنشئات التي يقدر عددها بال150 ألف حسب تقدير نوري المالكي والتي بسبب سيطرتها على المباني وإمتلاكها السلاح والسيارات هي في الحقيقة مليشيات بحد ذاتها، خصوصا أنها تدار من قبل شركات أمنية خاصة ، أي متداخلة مع المرتزقة.أما الهجمات على المدنيين الحقيقيين فالشارع العراقي بشكل عام يضع مسؤليته على عملاء الأحتلال، وهو تصور لا تقل مشروعيته عن وضع مسؤلياتها على متطرفين مجانيين يقتلون الناس وبعضهم البعض

The second graph shows that 75% of the recorded attacks,(here based on the quarterly reviews to congress only) has remained directed at the occupation forces directly, and further 17% at the Iraqi government forces. The remaining, 8% are directed at unspecified civilian targets. It is the later that makes it to the media.
The official Iraqi government security forces numbers have been steadily rising and now stand at about 330 000. They often act as forward or guard units for the occupation forces. It is not known what proportion of the attacks on "civilians" who are in fact mercenaries who operate in civilian clothes and are often based in civilian areas. The official US estimates is of 100,000 private contractors in Iraq. Other civilian targets may be Facility Protection Forces, whose number is estimated by the government at 150 000, or at real civilians. Word on the Iraqi street is that attacks on real civilians are the work of occupation agents, a version of events that is at least as credible as the mad fanatics attacking each other.
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الشكل الثالث جدول يبين الإنتشار الجغرافي لهجمات المقاومة حسب المحافظات في العامين الأخيرين. وهناك تغييرات صغيرة لكن الأصطدامات المتكررة في المحافظات الجنوبية بين القوات الحكومية ويبينها وبين الأهالي تبدو غير مدرجة ، وهو ما يشير الى أن ما هو مدرج هي أعمال المقاومة وحدها. ومن المعروف أن طريق الإمدادات بين الكويت وبغداد بطول حوالي 800 كم ، والمار عبر أغلب محافظات الجنوب، هو أشد طرق العالم حراسة ، وأن مبالغ خيالية تصرف على المرتزقة و"العشائر" والمليشيات لحمايته. ـ

.The third figure gives the geographic distribution of the resistance attacks. There are small shifts in pattern over time, but the frequent clashes in most southern provinces seem not to be included. This may indicate that the figures used refer only to resistance actions. It must be noted that the 800 km supply route from Kuwait to Baghdad through several southern provinces is the most heavily protected one in the world, with massive funds paid to contractors, ‘tribes’ and local militias.

The Iraq Index is produced by the Washington-based Brookings Institutions. It comes in 54 pages of tables, graphs and footnotes in PDF format, half of which on security indicators.

The index has been updated weekly over the last four years, in whatever section new data become available. The authors are Michael E. O’Hanlon and Jason H. Campbell.
Similar other projects, such as Iraqi Body Count and Iraqi Coalition Casualties Count, the above mentioned Brookings index is based on what is regarded by the western parliamentarians and the establishment figures as reputable sources which would verify and correct their data. Considering the politics of data, the figures are conservative and may well not represent the full story. Most security figures are from U.S. Department of Defense Quarterly Report to Congress.

منذر نعمان الأعظمي- اللجنة العراقية للإعلام والثقافة الوطنيةـ21 مارت 2007
Mundher Adhami
Iraqi Committee for Media and Culture
21 March 2007


As for Rumsfeld's metrics, the Iraqi saying goes: "soak it in water and then drink the water" for all the good it will do you.

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Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Police Yield to Sunni Insurgents' Ultimatum

In Town North of Baghdad, Five of Eight Stations Are Destroyed

By Karin Brulliard
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, March 20, 2007; A14

BAGHDAD, March 19 -- Dozens of insurgents wielding machine guns surrounded the police station before dawn Monday in Duluiyah, a majority Sunni town about 45 miles north of Baghdad. The five officers on duty walked out, hands to the dark sky, and waited to be executed.

But instead of firing, the insurgents' leader spoke: Repent, he commanded, or die.

"So we swore to quit the police and support the Islamic State of Iraq," recalled Mohammad Hashmawi, one of the police officers, referring to a militant Sunni organization active in many parts of the country.

Apparently content, the insurgents stole the officers' decrepit weapons and the station's communications equipment, blew up the building and released the officers. A similar scene played out simultaneously at another police station in the town, said police Capt. Hussein al-Jaburi. It was the fifth police station in the town to be destroyed by Sunni extremists in two weeks, he said, leaving just three standing.

Later, Hashmawi said he would keep his vow. "I have seen death with my own eyes, and I don't want to see it again. I will return to being a farmer. I tell you that the decisions and control of the city are in the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq."

In Duluiyah and elsewhere on Monday, Sunni insurgents continued their campaign of violence and intimidation on the eve here of the fourth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

In the northern city of Kirkuk, three back-to-back bombings -- near a mosque, a police patrol and the home of a former army general -- killed at least 16 people and wounded at least 38, a Kirkuk police official and a health department official said. Kirkuk police Col. Tala Salahaldeen attributed the bombings to the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq.

In Baghdad, a suicide bomber detonated his explosives while guards searched him as he tried to enter a mosque in Shorja, killing at least four people and wounding more than 30, police and the U.S. military said. A market in the predominantly Shiite neighborhood was the site of a bombing attack that killed 137 people last month.

As President Bush asked Americans to be patient with his plans for pacifying Iraq, the bloody developments underscored recent shifts in violence in the country. Shiite militias have lain low during a nearly five-week-old security crackdown in Baghdad, but Sunni insurgents have stepped up attacks, especially in the restive belt around the capital.

Execution-style killings persist. Police in Kut, south of Baghdad, discovered the bullet-pierced body of the mayor of Dijelah, a nearby Shiite village, on a main street. Khalaf al-Dilfi had been kidnapped earlier Monday by armed men, said Kut police Capt. Hameed Jiati.

Also Monday, the Iraqi government asked U.S. authorities for custody of former vice president Taha Yassin Ramadan in order to hang him Tuesday, news services reported, citing unnamed officials in Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's office. Last week, an appeals court upheld the death sentence given to Ramadan, who, like Saddam Hussein, was convicted for his role in the massacre of 148 Shiites from the town of Dujail in retaliation for a 1982 attempt on Hussein's life. [An official with the prime minister's office said Ramadan was hanged before dawn, the Associated Press reported.]

The U.S. military confirmed Monday that a building in Anbar province being used as an observation post by the Iraqi military was bombed by insurgents Sunday morning. The explosion killed two soldiers and wounded 12 others. Local authorities said Sunday that the building was a former hotel and that insurgents used disguises to plant bombs on the ground floor.

Special correspondents Naseer Nouri and Waleed Saffar in Baghdad and Muhanned Saif Aldin in Tikrit contributed to this report.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Attacks in Iraq hit all-time high

From correspondents in Washington

March 15, 2007 08:08am
Article from: Agence France-Presse

THE number of attacks in Iraq during the last three months of 2006 was the highest for any such period since 2003, a Pentagon progress report to Congress said today.

"Although most attacks continue to be directed against coalition forces, Iraqi civilians suffer the vast majority of the casualties,'' the report said.

The quarterly report - Stability and Security in Iraq - did not reflect security conditions since the start of the year when the United States increased the number of troops in Baghdad to try break a spiral of sectarian violence.

Echoing a recent US intelligence estimate, it said the term "civil war'' did not capture the complexity of the conflict, which included "extensive'' sectarian violence but also attacks on coalition forces and criminality.

"Some elements of the situation in Iraq are properly descriptive of a 'civil war,' including the hardening of ethno-sectarian and politically motivated violence, and population displacements,'' it said.

"Illegally armed groups are engaged in a self-sustaining cycle of sectarian and politically motivated violence, using tactics that include indiscriminate bombing, murder and indirect fire to intimidate people, and stoke sectarian violence,'' it said.

A chart showed a surge in sectarian incidents from September through December with murders spiking to about 1300 in December alone, from less than 100 in January.

During the last three months of the year, Baghdad experienced a record 45 attacks a day, it said.

"The total number of attacks on and casualties suffered by coalition forces, the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces), and Iraqi civilians for the October-December reporting period were the highest for any three-month period since 2003,'' it said.

"Casualties from these attacks decreased slightly in January, but remained troublingly high,'' the report said.

A chart in the report, however, showed average weekly attacks between January 1 and February 9 exceeded 1000, compared to a weekly average in the last six months of 2006 of about 900.

Maoist rebels kill at least 49 Indian police officers

Related
Six protesters die in Indian land clashes
· Riot police battle farmers over new economic zones
· Loss of livelihoods fuels violence in West Bengal
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10.30am

Randeep Ramesh in New Delhi
Thursday March 15, 2007
Guardian Unlimited


Maoist rebels march during their ninth convention at an undisclosed location in the jungles of Indian state of Chattisgarh
Maoist rebels march during their ninth convention at an undisclosed location in the jungles of Indian state of Chattisgarh. Photograph: AP


Hundreds of Maoist rebels armed with guns, grenades and home-made bombs attacked a remote police station in the dense forests of eastern India, in a pre-dawn raid that left at least 49 police officers dead.

The attack, which began at just after 2am, took the police station in the state of Chattisgarh, nearly 1,500km (930 miles) south-east of New Delhi, "by total surprise" said one official.

Between 300 and 400 rebels attacked the camp in the jungles in the southern part of the state, throwing grenades and petrol bombs. After killing 15 state police officers and 24 security officers from a state-armed militia force, the guerrillas set fire to the post before escaping with a substantial arms haul.



The Naxalites, as they are known, are part of a hidden war in the middle of India's mineral-rich tribal belt in central India. These hardline fighters are heirs of the revolutionary ideology of Mao Zedong. Chhattisgarh is the state that suffers most from Maoist attacks, accounting for about half of national casualties in 2006, according to the Asian Centre for Human Rights.

Unlike their ideological cousins in Nepal, the guerrillas are not prepared to consider swapping the bullet for the ballot box. Across a wide swath of India, from Andhra Pradesh in the south to the Nepalese border, there are reports of underground armies hijacking trains, mounting audacious jailbreaks and murdering local politicians.

Ajai Sahni, executive director at the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management told Reuters that the rebels have spent much of last year amassing an enormous cache of arms.

"This period has been a period of planning and of consolidation and you will now see the consequences," Mr Sahni said, adding that mass support continued to grow across the "red corridor". "You can expect a fairly abrupt escalation of violence over coming weeks and months," he added.

Last year the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, described the rebels as "the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country" but the Indian army has yet to called up to take on the guerrillas.

Instead, the army's jungle warfare units have been drafted to create village militias which can take on Naxalites in the villages. Last year, army commanders in Chhattisgarh told the Guardian that the Naxalite menace would be finished "in months".

Following today's raid, there was immediate speculation on India's news channels that the Indian soldiers would find themselves engaged in combat with the guerrillas, many of whom are barely out of their teens.

Like yesterday's battle in West Bengal, the issue is one of land. New Delhi would like big business to dig out the mineral wealth to fuel India's industrial surge and appears to be depopulating the forests in preparation for the sale.

In clearing villages they have created a well of deep dissatisfaction, which can be exploited by the Naxalites. Last year city brokers CLSA said in a note that a "lack of policy initiatives and the inability to win over the tribals, the largest stakeholder in the hinterlands where the Maoists hold sway, means the Naxalite movement is becoming stronger".

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Is the Bush surge already failing?

U.S.: Iraqi insurgent attacks intensifying; US general calls for talks with militants
Libby's Lies, Cheney's Lies: Juan Cole calls for impeachment
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The president just gave a rosy assessment of his plan, but insurgents have adapted and Iraqis continue to be slaughtered.

By Juan Cole

Mar. 08, 2007 | On Tuesday, President Bush said that "even at this early hour, there are some encouraging signs" that the so-called surge is working in Iraq. In fact, three weeks into what the president refers to as the "surge" and what Iraqis call the "new security plan," it's already clear that Bush's last-gasp bid for victory faces challenges that can't necessarily be surmounted by a few thousand additional troops.

With plenty of warning of the U.S. escalation, the Shiite Mahdi Army is lying low. Meanwhile, the Iraqi army and the much better equipped and trained U.S. military have made no appreciable progress against the real drivers of the country's civil war, Sunni Arab guerrillas, who have so far adapted successfully to the new deployments. And perhaps most important, a new spate of massive and deadly bombings has spread insecurity and further compromised the Iraqi government.

The neo-Baathists, Iraqi nationalists and Muslim fundamentalists who make up the insurgency have responded in several ways to the U.S. decision to put extra troops into Anbar Province and Baghdad. First, they have stood their ground, refusing to cede these two pieces of territory to the Americans or the Iraqi government, and they have changed their military tactics.

The Sunni Arab fighters appear to have made a tactical decision to target U.S. helicopters, and perhaps they have recently gotten hold, in the shadowy global arms market, of more sophisticated shoulder-held missile launchers. They have shot down eight U.S. helicopters in the past two months, several of them after the new security plan began. This tactic has made it more difficult for the U.S. to give American and Iraqi troops close air support, and has forced the U.S. to deploy bombers from greater altitudes against suspected guerrilla safe houses. In turn, bombing from a distance increases the likelihood that the U.S. will make a mistake and hit a house full of civilians, providing Iraqi, Arab and European media with heartbreaking footage of children being dug out of the rubble.

The guerrillas have not ceased their attacks in Anbar Province, a key focus of the escalation, where the U.S. military is adding some 4,000 extra troops. Guerrillas have bombed police stations and other sites in major cities like Ramadi and Tikrit on more than one occasion, sometimes killing and wounding dozens of people at a time. On Feb. 24 in Habbaniya, another town in Anbar, guerrillas used a truck bomb to attack a Sunni mosque that was cooperating with the Americans, killing 45 and wounding 110. They have killed a number of U.S. soldiers and Marines.

At the same time that some cells have refused to fall silent or go underground in Baghdad and Anbar, the Sunni Arab guerrillas have shifted some of their attacks to Diyala and Ninevah Provinces, which have Sunni Arab majorities but are not included in the new security arrangements. On Monday, they used a roadside bomb to kill six U.S. troops in Salahuddin Province, and another three in Diyala Province. In February, attacks on U.S. troops were up 70 percent in Diyala, according to the Associated Press. Diyala has a Sunni Arab majority, but because the Sunnis boycotted the last provincial elections, the provincial government, the police and the federal troops are all predominantly Shiite. Locally, American forces are seen primarily as enablers of the Shiite fundamentalist Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. It is not just Diyala. Guerrillas in recent months have driven thousands of Kurds from the large northern city of Mosul, and they have resorted to death squad tactics, often leaving half a dozen bodies in the street at night.

In attempting to suppress the Sunni militants, American troops are not receiving much help from the Iraqi army. The Iraqi brass have had trouble just convincing their troops to come to Baghdad from the provinces to fight. Several battalions have arrived at less than full strength, some of them only 42 percent filled. If troops will not obey a simple order to deploy several hundred miles away from their hometowns, it is difficult to see in what way they can defend the government in Baghdad. Nor had the units from the largely Shiite south managed to establish security in their home regions. As for the two Kurdish units, their deployment against the Arabs of Baghdad is controversial and likely to exacerbate ethnic tensions in the north.

The other problem with Bush's talk of "encouraging signs" is the steep increase in civilian casualties. Since the security plan began, the guerrillas have pulled off a whole series of horrific bombings right in downtown Baghdad, within spitting distance of the Green Zone, where the U.S. and the Iraqi government planned out the new security arrangements.

On Tuesday, the same day Bush gave his rosy assessment of the surge, Sunni Arab guerrillas bombed processions of Shiite pilgrims commemorating the martyrdom of the grandson of the Prophet Mohammed, al-Husayn. They killed some 115 pilgrims. News of the pilgrims' deaths undermined the American claims to be able to provide security, and will certainly eventually result in reprisal killings. Many Shiites believe that the Mahdi Army did a much better job of providing security for the religious processions, and that for the U.S to disarm them this year was a deadly mistake. Since these attempts to target the pilgrims were predictable, it is difficult to understand why the al-Maliki government and the U.S. did not forestall them.

A day earlier, guerrillas set off a car bomb on the famed al-Mutanabbi Street, home of numerous bookshops, on the shelves of which sat rare books and manuscripts that were emblematic of Iraq's deep culture. The explosion killed 38 people and wounded 105, destroying automobiles and setting shops ablaze, sending charred pages of poetry spattered with blood into the sky like leaves in a hurricane. The street has a sentimental value for educated Iraqis and news of the blasts reminded some of them of the predations of bloodthirsty Mongol Gen. Hulagu Khan in 1258.

The previous Monday, Feb. 26, someone blew up government offices during a visit by Iraq's Shiite vice president, Adil Abdul Mahdi, killing 10 persons and wounding many others, including a cabinet secretary. The bruised and scratched vice president barely escaped with his life. Abdul Mahdi angrily accused high officials of his own government of complicity in the assassination plot, without naming names. The day before that, guerrillas bombed offices at the al-Mustansiriya University, killing 41 persons, mainly students, and wounding a similar number. It was the second time the university students were targeted in as many weeks.

This string of major bombings has shaken to the core the confidence of the Iraqi people in the new security plan. Most days there are three or four bombings or mortar attacks in Baghdad. The police corpse patrol in the capital comes upon fewer bodies each day now than last December, but it is not unusual for them to find 15 to 30 bodies every morning, hardly a reassuring figure.

The U.S. strategy assumes that if violence can be dramatically reduced in Baghdad and Anbar, that will give the al-Maliki government breathing room and allow it to assert itself more forcefully. But so far the government hasn't been afforded much relief from the horrific attacks that daily undermine its credibility with the public and provoke destabilizing tribal and religious feuds. That matters, because if Iraqis do not feel that their government can protect them from violence, they will turn again to guerrillas and militiamen. These paramilitary forces, based in the neighborhoods, in turn carry out ethnic cleansing and attacks on police, and further undermine the authority of the central government.

Last summer, Bush explained of Iraq that "victory means a free government that is able to sustain itself, defend itself; it's a government that will be an ally in the war on terror. It's a government that will be able to fight off al-Qaida and its desires to have a safe haven."

There is still no good evidence that the Iraqi government can achieve "freedom" or that it can sustain or defend itself anytime soon. On Tuesday, the Iraqi parliament failed to convene because it could not garner the requisite quorum. The stony-faced prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is speaking darkly of having parliamentarians arrested for involvement in death squad activity, and of dismissing from his cabinet members of the Shiite bloc of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr that helped elect him in the first place. As a parliamentary democracy, Iraq is broken.

Contrary to what the president says, there is so far no reason to believe that the new security plan has made a big difference in the lives of Iraqis. The massacre of the Shiite pilgrims this week is among the more ominous developments. Protecting the pilgrims was the most important thing the government could have done. That so many were killed is no harbinger of progress. Three weeks into the surge, the Sunni Arab guerrillas are running rings around both al-Maliki's forces and those of the U.S. How some extra troops for half a year will change that remains about as clear as Baghdad's sky during a spring sandstorm.

U.S.: Iraqi insurgent attacks intensifying; US general calls for talks with militants

Related
U.S.: Iraqi insurgent attacks intensifying
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12.45pm update

US general calls for talks with militants

· Force 'not sufficient' to end Iraq violence
· 2,200 US military police to join crackdown
· 'Surge' should last until 2008, says commander


Mark Tran and agencies
Thursday March 8, 2007
Guardian Unlimited


General David Petraeus gives his first press conference since taking over command of US forces in Iraq
General David Petraeus gives his first press conference since taking over command of US forces in Iraq. Photograph: Chris Hondros/Getty Images


The US commander in Iraq today said military force alone was "not sufficient" to end the violence and political talks must eventually include some militant groups now opposing the US-backed government.

The announcement came as the Pentagon announced the deployment of an extra 2,200 US military police to Iraq to help deal with an anticipated increase in detainees during the latest US-led security crackdown, and the US day-to-day commander in Iraq was reported to have recommended current troop levels are maintained into 2008.

General David Petraeus, a counter-insurgency expert, was picked by Mr Bush in a last attempt to tackle the sectarian violence in Baghdad which is threatening to rip the country apart. US policy in Iraq is at present the deployment of 21,500 more troops to help the Shia-led government of Nuri al-Maliki.

A parallel increase in military police was requested by Gen Petraeus, but at his first news conference in Baghdad since taking charge of American forces last month, he said it was political negotiations with militants that "will determine in the long run the success of this effort".

He said he saw no immediate need for more US combat troops other than those already announced, but a report in the New York Times said his day-to-day commander, Lieutenant-General Raymond Odierno, had made the confidential assessment that heightened troop levels be maintained until February 2008.

Gen Odierno's view reflects the counter-insurgency doctrine favoured by Gen Petraeus of leaving troops in areas they enter rather than withdrawing and letting insurgents return.

Gen Petraeus today said Baghdad had seen encouraging signs of progress despite "sensational attacks", pointing to a fall in sectarian killings and fewer people leaving their homes in recent weeks in the capital.

But nine US soldiers were killed in two separate roadside bombings this week in spite of a security crackdown now in its fourth week.

And the increase in US forces has not prevented a spate of attacks in the past three days on Shia pilgrims making their way to the holy city of Kerbala. At least 150 have been killed, including more than 100 outside the capital. It was "too early to discern significant trends, [but] there have been a few encouraging signs", Gen Petraeus told reporters.

The attacks - mostly blamed on Sunni insurgents - are seen as attempts to provoke a civil war with Shia militia.

Gen Petraeus said it was "critical" for leaders to halt any drift toward sectarian conflict and added that US forces were ready to help provide additional security for the pilgrims if asked by Iraqi authorities.

But he saw no role for the Shia militia known as the Mahdi Army, whose fighters guarded pilgrims in the past two years.

He said "extremist elements" in the militia had been engaged in "true excesses" in the past - a reference to suspected gangs killing Sunnis.