A damning indictment of a President and his policy

Leading article

Published: 07 December 2006

A more devastating indictment of the strategy of a sitting American president could not be imagined. The cross-party Iraq Study Group's recommendations on future US policy in that blighted country were made public yesterday. Gone are the illusions of "progress" and "victory" peddled by George Bush - and, until recently, Tony Blair. Instead, it paints an unvarnished picture of the "dire" reality in Iraq. It breaks new ground not in the proposals it makes, but in the bluntness with which it speaks truth to power.

"Frankly, there are no new ideas on Iraq." These are the words of Robert Gates, the former CIA director and member of the ISG until he was nominated to the Pentagon. They should banish any notion that somewhere within this report is buried a lapidary cure-all for the gigantic mess Mr Bush has created.

It is not - because such a panacea does not exist. Every possible exit strategy from the 44-month-long war has been floated, examined and found wanting. There are no good answers, only least-bad ones. That said, the ISG proposals are very sensible. The group would like virtually all US combat troops withdrawn by early 2008, but does not set a timetable. Thousands of soldiers, however, would stay on to train and embed with the Iraqi security forces. On the diplomatic front, it urges quick steps towards direct engagement with Iran and Syria, and a new push for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement. But not one of these suggestions is new. Their novelty is not military or diplomatic, but political.

For the first time, a credible set of ideas on Iraq bears a cross-party imprimatur. The document may be remembered as the "Baker report", after its co-chairman James Baker, the canny and vastly experienced former Secretary of State under this president's father, who has been its most visible face. From today, when Mr Blair meets Mr Bush in Washington, the report could have transatlantic support as well.

Listening to Mr Baker yesterday was to be transported back to an era when America's foreign policy was run by people who understood the world contained other countries than their own. But the group contains five eminent Democrats as well as four other Republicans. It thus offers precious cover not only to the President at this most critical of junctures, but also to Congress, whose unity is essential if the necessary decisions are to be made.

But the window of opportunity will last only a few months at most. By spring, the 2008 Presidential race will be under way in earnest, distracting the country's attention and stretching bipartisanship to the limit. Then there are events on the ground. If the sectarian violence in Iraq continues to worsen, all bets will be off, and the ISG report will be ancient history.

Nor is there the slightest guarantee that Iran and Syria will co-operate. Why should Tehran, whose position in the region has been greatly enhanced by Mr Bush's blundering, lend a helping hand now? Even if it did, so great is the chaos in Iraq that it might make little difference.

Most important, however, is the reaction of this most obstinate of presidents. Mr Bush says he will take the report "very seriously". But he has hitherto shown little inclination to engage Iran and Syria, and none whatsoever to put pressure on Israel. He still talks of "seeing the job through", and says the ISG report is just one of several sets of proposals he is considering.

But none will be as authoritative. Can he now, for once, take the advice of people whose views are not his own? It is most certainly his best chance, and probably his last one, of salvaging something from one of the greatest foreign disasters in American history.

A more devastating indictment of the strategy of a sitting American president could not be imagined. The cross-party Iraq Study Group's recommendations on future US policy in that blighted country were made public yesterday. Gone are the illusions of "progress" and "victory" peddled by George Bush - and, until recently, Tony Blair. Instead, it paints an unvarnished picture of the "dire" reality in Iraq. It breaks new ground not in the proposals it makes, but in the bluntness with which it speaks truth to power.

"Frankly, there are no new ideas on Iraq." These are the words of Robert Gates, the former CIA director and member of the ISG until he was nominated to the Pentagon. They should banish any notion that somewhere within this report is buried a lapidary cure-all for the gigantic mess Mr Bush has created.

It is not - because such a panacea does not exist. Every possible exit strategy from the 44-month-long war has been floated, examined and found wanting. There are no good answers, only least-bad ones. That said, the ISG proposals are very sensible. The group would like virtually all US combat troops withdrawn by early 2008, but does not set a timetable. Thousands of soldiers, however, would stay on to train and embed with the Iraqi security forces. On the diplomatic front, it urges quick steps towards direct engagement with Iran and Syria, and a new push for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement. But not one of these suggestions is new. Their novelty is not military or diplomatic, but political.

For the first time, a credible set of ideas on Iraq bears a cross-party imprimatur. The document may be remembered as the "Baker report", after its co-chairman James Baker, the canny and vastly experienced former Secretary of State under this president's father, who has been its most visible face. From today, when Mr Blair meets Mr Bush in Washington, the report could have transatlantic support as well.

Listening to Mr Baker yesterday was to be transported back to an era when America's foreign policy was run by people who understood the world contained other countries than their own. But the group contains five eminent Democrats as well as four other Republicans. It thus offers precious cover not only to the President at this most critical of junctures, but also to Congress, whose unity is essential if the necessary decisions are to be made.

But the window of opportunity will last only a few months at most. By spring, the 2008 Presidential race will be under way in earnest, distracting the country's attention and stretching bipartisanship to the limit. Then there are events on the ground. If the sectarian violence in Iraq continues to worsen, all bets will be off, and the ISG report will be ancient history.

Nor is there the slightest guarantee that Iran and Syria will co-operate. Why should Tehran, whose position in the region has been greatly enhanced by Mr Bush's blundering, lend a helping hand now? Even if it did, so great is the chaos in Iraq that it might make little difference.

Most important, however, is the reaction of this most obstinate of presidents. Mr Bush says he will take the report "very seriously". But he has hitherto shown little inclination to engage Iran and Syria, and none whatsoever to put pressure on Israel. He still talks of "seeing the job through", and says the ISG report is just one of several sets of proposals he is considering.

But none will be as authoritative. Can he now, for once, take the advice of people whose views are not his own? It is most certainly his best chance, and probably his last one, of salvaging something from one of the greatest foreign disasters in American history.