Dec 13, 2006
By K Gajendra Singh
At the end of the just concluded summit of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ( Nato), the US dominated -driven defence alliance appeared to be in disarray and confused over its enemies and objectives . Held in Latvia's capital Riga, the first time on the soil of former Soviet Union Republic, it was a sort of rubbing in the West's victory in the Cold War.
US Neo-cons' hubris driven unilateral policies which sent US led invaders bulldozing into Baghdad against the UN Charter and the world opinion, and till the Iraqi quagmire stared US in its face , with the now disenchanted and a wiser US public punishing the Republican party and handing over the Congress to the Democrats in November elections, Nato saw the entire world as its theatre of operations , enticing former Russian allies into its umbrella and rolling back Russian influence in East Europe , Caucasus and even Central Asia .
Russia is the only power which even now can thwart US moves and military power. But it was the Iraqi resistance in Iraq which exposed the limits of US military power sending a resounding warning to aggressors and occupiers of other people's lands .A resurgent Talebans with Pakistani acquiescence are doing the same to embattled Nato forces in Afghanistan. While other subjects were discussed at Riga , Afghanistan has now became Nato's major preoccupation and a veritable hot potato.
US President George Bush, who has claimed Afghanistan as his success story in nation building and democracy ,after his party's debacle , was cautious on Nato's achievements in Afghanistan ."Afghanistan is NATO's most important military operation,'' Bush said. "By standing together in Afghanistan we will protect our people, defend our freedom and send a clear message to the extremists — the forces of freedom and decency will prevail.'' More or less the same old 'stay the course' mantra , as in Iraq.
But British Prime Minister Tony Blair even proclaimed some success, "I think there is a sense that this mission in Afghanistan is not yet won, but it is winnable and, indeed, we are winning." Jaap de Hoop Scheffer , the Secretary General of Nato was another optimist and echoed Blair , "There is not the slightest reason for gloom over Afghanistan." The mission "is winnable, it is being won, but not yet won". While André Flahaut, Defence Minister of Belgium , which contributes little to the Nato forces , brought out worries about the Afghan mission into the open .He told the media that at the Riga summit, "we (must) finally reflect on an exit strategy".
The US bipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG) report presented to the US Congress on 6 December said that "it is critical for the US to provide political, economic and military support for Afghanistan, including resources that might become available as forces are moved from Iraq." "Some but not all of the extra soldiers could come from units withdrawn from Iraq, ". In a section arguing for dialogue with Tehran over Iraq, it also notes that Iran and the US have cooperated over Afghanistan.[Yes, Shia Iran dreads the return of the extremist Sunni Talebans)
Afghanistan has seen this year a record numbers of suicide attacks and roadside bombs, a booming drugs trade and almost 4,000 deaths including 190 foreign soldiers.
The ISG report warned "The huge focus of US political, military, and economic support has necessarily diverted attention from Afghanistan. We must not lose sight of the importance of the situation inside Afghanistan and the renewed threat posed by the Taliban. If the Taliban were to control more of Afghanistan, it could provide al-Qaida the political space to conduct terrorist operations ..."
Most Nato members now realize that any visions of victory in Afghanistan are far fetched. They are reluctant their troops becoming cannon fodder or blasted by IEDs and other new techniques imported from Iraq. There have been more than a hundred suicide attacks so far this year. Somewhat like the delusions of the US Neo-cons of ruling Iraq , the region and the world as laid out in the 'New American Century ", Nato's plans to emerge as " a veritable 21st-century global political and military organization that would sit in arbitration over the emergent world order, no matter what the role of the United Nations,' are likely to prove misplaced .
There are 32,500 Nato-led troops in Afghanistan. Main troop contributors are : USA (11,800), UK (6,000), Germany (2,700), Canada (2,500) Netherlands (2,000), Italy (1,800) and France (975).
Apart from members restricting their troops to non-combat areas , the alliance was not even willing to provide the 2,200 extra troops that the US and British commanders badly needed to fight the regrouped Talebans now with increasing support from the population . The US, British, Canadian and Dutch would continue to bear the brunt of the fighting in the deadly southern and southeastern regions of Afghanistan.
The Riga Summit reaffirmed that "the Alliance will continue with Georgia and Ukraine its Intensified Dialogues which cover the full range of political, military, financial, and security issues relating to those countries' aspirations to membership, without prejudice to any eventual Alliance decision,"
At a news conference the host, Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga said that the alliance has encouraged Georgia, "which made a tremendous efforts" on its way of reforms. "But in terms of invitations the countries in the Balkans [Albania, Croatia, Macedonia] are further along in that process and those are the ones that could be expecting to have an invitation by the summit of 2008. It will be too early yet for Georgia at that time, but the encouragement is certainly there."
The long awaited rapid reaction force (NRF), a brainchild of former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, is now fully ready to take on missions ranging from high end combat in far off trouble spots to humanitarian relief. It could field troops from a pool of up to 25,000 troops at a few days' notice and would be the flagship of NATO in post cold war era.
The Summit declaration also "encouraged nations whose defence spending is declining to halt that decline and to aim to increase spending in real terms", but it omitted any specific reference to the NATO target of maintaining defence spending at or above 2 percent of national income, something only six or seven of the 26 allies achieve. Only US is doing so relying on massive trade deficits!
It was agreed to "increase the operational relevance of relations with non-NATO countries" as part of a U.S.-backed plan to boost ties with countries from Asia to Scandinavia that have contributed troops to alliance operations. But there was no mention of plans to create any new partnership arrangements with such countries. France led members are opposed to Nato attempts to set itself up as a "mini-United Nations" .Countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea remained skeptical of the value of formal ties with Nato.
French President Jacque Chirac floated the idea of a 'Contact Group' for Afghanistan in a newspaper article before the Summit stating that "the establishment of a contact group encompassing the countries in the region, the principal countries involved and international organizations along the lines of what exists in Kosovo is, I think, necessary to give our forces the means to succeed in their mission ... ". He also argued that Nato develop a "trusting relationship" with Russia and stressed the need to avoid the "creation of new fault lines." [ Europe relies on Russian gas supplies , which will increase , an alternative source is Iran!]
The "new reality of Europe" required a "more substantive strategic and political dialogue between the US and EU" .The latter's voice must be heard in Nato ie with the EU members "consulting between themselves within the alliance" in an institutional format so that Nato was transformed into a "mutually supportive alliance in which North American and European allies will be able to ... work side by side", upholding the "principles and objectives of the UN Charter". The United Nations should remain the "sole political forum with universal authority". Chirac's proposal reflects the growing unease about the Anglo-American 'Cabal' also controlling NATO's war in Afghanistan.
During a recent debate in the UN General Assembly on Afghanistan, the Russian dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) issued joint statements underlining their relevance and objectives. CSTO and SCO have become important as part of Russia-China led counter moves , along with other central Asian Republics , after US franchised street revolutions , which installed puppet rulers in Georgia and Ukraine , after the first successful experiment in Serbia and then tried it in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The SCO countries closed ranks and said enough is enough, with Russia and China holding for the first time massive joint military exercises , with others being planned to counter Nato aggressiveness and the ingress into Russian strategic space. Washington tries to ignore these organizations and their objectives. Apart from Russia , China :India, Iran and Pakistan ( last three have observer status in SCO ) and others have a stake in the stability of Afghanistan .
Anglo-Saxon policies create chaos as they did in Afghanistan in 1980s and then left, except that from there emerged the Al Qaeda , which stunned the world with their 11 September attacks. US policy makers, mostly with corporate , legal or lobbying house experience have short term perceptions limited to annual balance sheets and of cutting costs , as shown in their planning and execution of the invasion and occupation of Iraq and earlier in Afghanistan. In any case they are selected by US corporate interests, whose policies they implement, peoples medical and pension interests be damned.
USA also did not recognize the resistance in Iraq for long and still calls the popular political and social movement Hezbollah , with members in Parliament and ministers in Lebanon , a 'terrorist organization , but the heroic fight by its militia against Israeli aggression and destruction , gave a sense of pride and confidence to the Lebanese people.
Commenting on the Riga Summit , German magazine 'Spiegel ' said that "It's more than probable Germany's NATO allies will request its support [ for troops]. But Berlin is already demonstratively warding off all requests for the deployment of German troops to the Kandahar region--Approval in principle and polite refusal in each specific case is likely to be the German military's response to requests for support." German troops getting involved in combat operations in southern Afghanistan, would have been difficult to sell to the German public. So Chancellor Angela Merkel was pleased with the results –and stoically absorbed the criticism of Germany's NATO allies.
"The summit has shown clearly that NATO lacks a common strategy. While NATO leaders emphasized the non-military aspects of their mission during the summit, the fact remains that the war in southern Afghanistan could still be lost. The rhetoric about networking security and reconstruction may sound good, but security remains primary with every kind of reconstruction work.
"But there was one thing that could be relied on: The media staging of the summit. All member countries confirmed that -- the absence of genuine decisions notwithstanding -- the summit was a success. In spite of talk of "clear progress" , it would have been difficult to demonstrate more clearly that the statements made at the end of NATO assemblies have little to do with reality", concluded Spiegel.
Nato's History;
Founded in 1949 as a defence alliance against Communist expansion in Europe , Nato's first Summit was held in Paris in December 1957. For many years no further Summit meeting was held . The next Summit then took place in Brussels in May 1975. Subsequent Summits were held in London (May 1977), Washington (May 1978) and Bonn (June 1982). The next four meetings were held in Brussels in November 1985, March 1988, May 1989 and December 1989 respectively.
In July 1990, Nato held its first Summit in London after the end of the Cold War. Three more Summits took place in Rome (November 1991); Brussels (January 1994); and Madrid (July 1997), setting out the basis for the transformation of the Alliance and its adaptation to the new challenges of the post Cold War era.
Under US President Bill Clinton, the Washington Nato summit in 1999 decided to intervene in Yugoslavia and succeeded in breaking up into pieces Russia's traditional Orthodox Slav ally with help from West European nations. US and Nato promoted breakaway Montenegro to secede from Serbia but object to similar move by Abkhazia from Georgia .The Summit also succeeded in NATO's eastward expansion in the post-Cold War era , in spite of objections from a weakened Russia ,with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joining the alliance.
NATO's Prague summit in 2002 invited seven countries , mostly from the former Soviet block to begin accession talks, heralding the biggest ever expansion of the alliance. The summit also decided to have its own Rapid Force.
The whole world then appeared to Nato ready for its onward march to any where in the world , Afghanistan ,Pakistan and the so called Azad Kashmir , central Asia , where the newly independent republics were offered subservient positions. Russian apprehensions and resistance to Nato expansion slowly increased, after the departure of a mostly drunk and drugged Boris Yeltsin. China too became apprehensive, with US bases for it so called 'War on Terror', in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan ( with a puppet ruler , where US had the run of the country ), adjacent to its turbulent Turkic speaking province of Xinjiang .
Afghanistan became the major focus for NATO at the 2004 summit at Istanbul. While the Iraqi quagmire had been discerned by keen observers, USA and the West were still full of confidence in setting right the world , of course in their vision of the manifest destiny. The Summit brimmed with optimism with NATO raring to go in, sort out even the Afghan problem, a country shattered by US Soviet rivalry in 1980s and then neglected, but never subdued for long in its history by any outside power . The British ought to know it.
Forgetting past differences on Iraq , Nato members like FRG , France and others even agreed to help Washington in strengthening its illegal occupation of Iraq , by training the armed and security forces of the US installed Iraqi governments .
Pre Riga Summit optimism;
In Washington, General James Jones, supreme commander of the NATO forces, claimed in May , 2006 that it would be a crucial year for the alliance, with its focus shifting "180 degrees in terms of its military capabilities and culture", ie from a "reactive, defensive, static alliance to become "more flexible, more proactive", to take on future conflicts any where .US troops had already reached Georgia and Azerbaijan under bilateral training programs and to guard Baku –Tbilisi- Ceyhan oil pipe line , therefore it was envisaged that NATO would patrol the Black Sea and even the Caspian. Russian troops would be ejected from Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova. NATO even talked of settling the many conflicts, mostly 'frozen', in the Caucasus and Eurasia, arising out of the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union .
In spite of the presence of the Russian naval fleet in Sevastopol, Brussels encouraged Ukraine's accession to Nato , even if all conditions were not fulfilled , as well as of Georgia's. US troops even landed in Crimea for joint exercises with Ukraine but were forced to retreat by pro-Russian population in the region .Soon after pro-US ruler Victor Yushchenko in Kiev lost the Parliament elections , reducing his ability to toe the US line.
Nato spokesmen offered new partnership agreements to the Asia-Pacific region to Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, and why not to India too. NATO even saw a role in the Middle East to safeguard energy supplies for the West.
Everything appeared rosy and hunky dory , but for the worsening quagmire in Iraq, defeat of Israeli ground forces by Hezbollah in South Lebanon and defiance by Iran and Syria , supported by Russia and China , including sale of arms and help in UN.
Russian retort;
In Belarus , next door to Latvia , the summit of the 12-member Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), created in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union was held around the time of the Riga Summit .Russian President Putin lifted sanctions against Moldova and indicated an early end to a gas row with Belarus. Putin has used gas prices and trade sanctions against its recalcitrant neighbours like Ukraine , Georgia , Moldova and even friendly Belarus .USA does it every day .( Under India-US agreement on nuclear power , US Congress wants to control India's Iran policy among other constraints). In Riga , Bush could not help but have a dig at the heavy handed regime of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko ( while Washington itself supports dictators all around the world).
On the eve of Riga Summit, combative Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov retorted at frequent US lecturing at Moscow. "The current situation in Afghanistan is indeed very reminiscent of the late 1980s when the Soviet Union was involved there. It is painful to talk about it, but even with its 110,000 elite soldiers, the Soviet Union never managed to gain control over the entire Afghan territory, " he said.
"I am firmly convinced that the security situation will never improve until you are able to very effectively monitor the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan ... [But] it's also difficult because Pakistan is a US ally, and because, at the same time, it is not an entirely democratic state, and is a state that possesses weapons of mass destruction and is even involved in proliferation - to North Korea, for example", he added.
Message from Pakistan;
Ivanov was not wrong .The message from Pakistan , USA's major non-Nato strategic ally in the war against terrorism was quite deflating. On the eve of the Riga summit, Lt Gen David Richards, the British General and Nato's force commander in Afghanistan, and the Dutch Ambassador Daan Everts, its chief envoy there, who were in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad ,urging the Pakistani military to do more to reign in the Taliban, were told by Pakistani Foreign Minister, Khurshid Kasuri in private briefings that the Taliban were winning the war in Afghanistan and Nato was bound to fail. He advised against sending more troops. Stunned Western interlocutors said that "Kasuri is basically asking Nato to surrender and to negotiate with the Taliban."
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has since long claimed that the Taleban sanctuaries and logistics bases lie in Pakistan .Gen James Jones, the Supreme Commander of Nato, told the US Congress in September that the Taleban leadership was headquartered in the Pakistani city of Quetta.
Lt Gen Ali Mohammed Jan Orakzai, Governor of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province has openly declared that the Nato 's mission has failed in Afghanistan. "Either it is a lack of understanding or it is a lack of courage to admit their failures," he reiterated recently. Gen Orakzai , a Pashtun himself ,maintains that the Talebans represent the ethnic Pashtun population, which straddles Afghanistan's and Pakistan border provinces and they now lead a "national resistance" to expel Western occupation forces from Afghanistan (as in Iraq.)
Gen Orakzai was the prime mover in the "peace deals" signed between the Pakistan army and the Pashtun tribes on the Pakistani side of the border. Gen Orakzai has recommended that Nato and the British Army sign similar agreements in southern provinces of Afghanistan like Helmand province. It is believed that the Talebans from Pak controlled areas continue to attack Nato forces inside Afghanistan .
Pakistan ( wannabe US allies might note) , which Washington threatened to bomb to stone age if Islamabad did not jettison its Afghanistan policy of strategic depth against India and join US in the invasion of Afghanistan, has become more vocal after the deepening US quagmire in Iraq. During his recent visit to Washington and London , Pak President Gen. Pervaz Musharraf , apart from using the opportunity to market his book ( with some help from Bush at the White House media meeting ), clearly told his Western audience that without Pak support ,Nato and the West would fail in Afghanistan. (Musharraf had to be bribed by USA so that the Presidential and Assembly elections could be held in Afghanistan peacefully) Commando Musharraf , living one of his many cat's lives is awaiting a regime change in Kabul , where Karzai is protected by a private US security drill and his writ does not extend beyond the capital city of Kabul.
It may be recalled that when US rained bombs on Afghan territory and people in its 2001 December war , Al Qaeda and the Taleban leadership and cadres escaped to fight for another day and now live along the rugged border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan .Like a rabbit from his hat Musharraf produces a minor Al Qaeda operative from time to time ,when pressurised by USA. Osama ben Laden and his aides keep on sending out regular video and audio messages . Kabul was entered and taken over by the fighters of the northern Alliance of late Gen Masood .
Ahmed Rashid an expert on the region ,wrote recently that ," In southern Afghanistan, the Taliban have learned to avoid U.S. and NATO surveillance satellites and drones ,collect up to 400 guerrillas at a time to attack Afghan police stations and army posts and then disperse before U.S. airpower arrives , hide their weapons and merge into the local population."
"In North and South Waziristan, the tribal regions along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, an alliance of extremist groups that includes al-Qaeda, Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, Central Asians, and Chechens has won a significant victory against the army of Pakistan. The army, which has lost some 800 soldiers in the past three years, has retreated, dismantled its checkpoints, released al-Qaeda prisoners and is now paying large "compensation" sums to the extremists.
"This region, considered "terrorism central" by U.S. commanders in Afghanistan, is now a fully operational al-Qaeda base area offering a wide range of services, facilities, and military and explosives training for extremists around the world planning attacks. Waziristan is now a regional magnet. In the past six months up to 1,000 Uzbeks, escaping the crackdown in Uzbekistan after last year's massacre by government security forces in the town of Andijan, have found sanctuary with al-Qaeda in Waziristan."
Hundreds of Pakistani Pashtuns are joining the Talebans in their fight but NATO has adopted a head-in-the-sand attitude, pretending that Afghanistan is a self-contained operational theater without neighbors and so declining to put pressure on Pakistan to close down Taleban bases in Baluchistan and Waziristan.
Analysts say US failure to send sufficient troops to Afghanistan in late 2001 was a blunder. "American policymakers ... misjudged their own capacity to carry out major strategic change on the cheap," said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert, in a recent report.
"Instead the US military relied on alliances with friendly warlords to exert control and help in the hunt for al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives. But as the US moved its military and intelligence assets out of Afghanistan in preparation for the invasion of Iraq, the same warlords were already undermining the democracy that George Bush wanted to nurture, "says the Guardian
"The warlords built drug empires, engaged in widespread corruption and undermined the president, Hamid Karzai. The Taliban skillfully exploited the situation this year through intimidation and propaganda aimed at largely illiterate southern Pashtuns."
Suicide and roadside bombings targeting foreign troops and government officials have increased fourfold this year, up to 600 a month, with violence recorded in all but two of the country's 34 provinces. Officials say nearly 4,000 people have died in insurgent-related violence this year, including at least 186 coalition troops. Many times Nato jets end up killing civilians , much to President Karzai's public anguish and chagrin. It does not help winning Afghan hearts.
In 'Afghanistan after democracy' Dr. Mohammed Daud Miraki , an Afghan says that ,5 years on, the Afghan population is still devastated by relentless poverty ,one in four children born in Afghanistan cannot expect to live to age 5, close to 50% of the population cannot expect to live to age 40 with the lowest life expectancy in the world. More than 70% of the population is chronically malnourished, less than a quarter of the population has access to safe drinking water, the electricity supply is accessible by only 10% of the people. Fifty to seventy mothers die every day from birth complications according to the 2006 World Health Report .There is one physician per 7,066 Afghans but one soldier per 742 Afghans. And 86% of American aid is phantom aid , with corruption in high places and soaring crime in three areas: (1) drugs, poppy growth is up (2) kidnapping for ransom, bodily organs and trafficking (3) prostitution and murder and rape of Afghans by the military. Under the Taliban, poppy growth was eradicated in 96% of the country. But under Nato protected Afghan President Karzai , opium production has soared back to pre Taleban level.
A recent survey indicated slump in Afghans' perceptions of their future specially in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, the scene of intense fighting between Nato and Taleban forces. Now, only four out of 10 there think things are heading in the right direction, barely half the figure of a year ago. Eighty percent rate their security as poor.
According to a new study by the Center for Public Integrity "more than 70 American companies and individuals have won up to $8 billion in contracts for work in postwar Iraq and Afghanistan over the last two years, donated more money to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush — a little over $500,000 — than to any other politician over the last dozen years.
Critics counter that the Bush administration's overemphasis on military spending versus reconstruction aid has hamstrung efforts to win hearts and minds. By some estimates, military operations have cost US$ 82.5 billion since 2002, compared with $7.3 billion spent on development.
There is no doubting of some progress, concentrated in Kabul, but why did billions of dollars in aid and thousands of foreign troops not make more of a difference? There is too much of corruption and not enough on state building exercise, on institutions like the judiciary and the police.
Lakhdar Brahimi a former UN envoy to Afghanistan , said that he and others were wrong not to bring the Taleban into the political process as early as 2002." We are too late, too bureaucratic, and frankly we spend too much money on ourselves rather than developing the skills of Afghans."
In 1971, when posted at Ankara , after the Pak military did not allow nationalist Bengali leader Sheikh Mujibur Rehman to form the government in spite of his party National Awami league having secured a majority in the Pakistani Parliament , Bengalis had revolted . A Bengali diplomat from the East wing told me about a chapter in a book on ancient history of Pakistan .It was titled 'Alexander invades Pakistan '.He quipped impishly that with Alexander being from Macedonia , which was a republic in Yugoslavia , the chapter could have been titled ,' Yugoslavia invades Pakistan '. What the Pakistan writer did to history, Nato seems to be doing to geography to undermine United Nations importance. Making North Atlantic omnipresent ! Where North Atlantic begins and where it ends! The Nato troops are certainly in for a hard lesson on Afghanistan's rough geography and its history of fierce resistance against foreign occupation.
K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. Copy right with the author. E-mail Gajendrak@hotmail.com.
