Monday, January 8, 2007

In a Divided Israel, Angry Words or No Words at All

January 7, 2007
News Analysis

JERUSALEM, Jan. 6 — Two of Israel’s most important relationships in the world are with the United States and Egypt. In the past 10 days, the Israeli government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has managed to embarrass both of them.

First, Defense Minister Amir Peretz approved building a new settlement in the occupied West Bank, in the Jordan Valley, far beyond the current separation barrier, and then seemed astonished when the United States called the action a violation of commitments made under the 2003 peace plan, known as the road map.

Then, on Thursday, only hours before Mr. Olmert was to sit down at a summit meeting with the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, the Israeli Army conducted a botched arrest raid in daylight in the center of Ramallah, the capital of the West Bank. In the ensuing mayhem, four Palestinians died, 20 were wounded, the target got away and Mr. Olmert had to sit through a humiliating tongue-lashing on live television from Mr. Mubarak.

Neither incident was of fundamental importance, and neither, it seems, was intended to create the ensuing ruckus. And neither action, Mr. Olmert’s aides insisted, had been approved by the prime minister.

But together, Israeli politicians and analysts suggest, the moves reflect a malfunctioning Israeli government, deeply split over personalities, politics and policies. It has lost the confidence of most Israelis, according to the opinion polls, which makes Israeli leaders even less likely to take bold political steps domestically or internationally.

It is a government weak on security experience, as well, meaning that Mr. Olmert of Kadima and Defense Minister Peretz of Labor are unlikely to challenge the views and actions of the Israeli military. The rivalry between the men — a political competition between party leaders that has veered into mutual contempt — means that they and their staffs barely speak to one another.

This picture does not include the bitter rivalries within the Labor Party, as Mr. Peretz appears fatally weakened, or between Mr. Olmert and his Kadima party colleague, Tzipi Livni, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister, who Mr. Olmert thinks is angling for his job.

“There’s a mess, but it’s part of a more general mess,” said Colette Avital, a senior Labor legislator on the Foreign and Defense Committee. “There’s a breakdown in communications between the prime minister and the minister of defense. It’s enough to look at them together. When they sit down, they don’t say a word.”

On Friday, Mr. Olmert denied a report that he would fire Mr. Peretz, but there is little doubt that he may do so if the Labor Party itself does not convince its current leader to change portfolios.

Adding to the tension is a traditional attitude by the Israeli military that it should be the prime judge of security issues. When Yitzhak Rabin was prime minister in the 1990s, he used to say that Israel would fight terrorism as if there were no peace negotiations and negotiate peace as if there were no terrorism, meaning that decision making for each track was separate. That sometimes led to politically awkward moments comparable to the two recent ones.

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By STEVEN ERLANGER



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