In Focus:
US-Iranian tensions could escalate fast and bring catastrophe to the region, writes Galal Nassar
The Middle East is becoming a vast disaster zone. The Americans, who are still bogged down in Iraq, are turning their sights on Iran, bullying it to placate Israel. This policy, which has been designed by the neo-cons, may end up wreaking havoc on the whole region. The region has every right to regard Iran with suspicion, mind you. Under the mullahs, Tehran has committed massacres in Iraq, especially in the south, and is currently bent on acquiring nuclear weapons. But a conflict between the US and Iran is the last thing the region needs.
The Middle East is teetering on the brink of disaster with little to look forward to. And the prospect of an alliance between Arab "moderates" and the Americans is hardly reassuring. The region is caught between a rock and a hard place. Iran has its own ambitions, and Israel is not letting up.
The recent tour of the US secretary of state was clearly aimed at getting moderate Arabs on the side of the Americans and the Israelis. The secretary used all her power of persuasion to tempt Arab leaders to join an anti- Iranian alliance. The US and Israel want to bring Iran to its knees, but they cannot accomplish that in the absence of at least a semblance of Arab support.
The Americans, by the admission of the chief of the CIA, think that Iran is 10 years away from the bomb, and yet they're contemplating pre-emptive action. A strike against Iran is not simply a theoretical possibility. The maps and plans have been drawn, as US officials keep reminding us. The US president recently told the world that US failure in Iraq would "strengthen" Iran and threaten world security. And Dick Cheney claimed that Iran was "destabilising" Iraq and must be stopped. The US national security adviser has refused to rule out the possibility of US forces entering Iranian territories to capture "hostile" individuals.
In the speech delineating his new strategy in Iraq, President Bush portrayed Iran as the number one enemy. He promised that Washington would work with other countries to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms and "controlling" the Gulf region. A second US nuclear aircraft carrier is on its way to the Gulf. USS John C Stennis and USS Dwight D Eisenhower are going to stay in the Gulf for a few months, the first such deployment since 2003.
According to Robert Gates, the new US defense secretary, the US build-up in Iraq is a message to Iran. There are people in Iraq who try to kill Americans and who transport weapons used to kill Americans, and confronting those people is a matter of military "necessity", he said.
When Admiral William Fallon was appointed chief of Central Command for the Middle East, analysts were quick to see the implications. The appointment of a naval pilot to supervise military operations in the Gulf can only mean one thing: that the US is getting ready to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran would most likely retaliate by striking oilrigs and tankers and closing the Hormuz Straights. The US would call upon the navy to respond, hence Fallon's appointment.
Tehran and Washington are already locking horns in Iraq. US forces in Iraq in two separate raids have arrested Iranian individuals. And the US president is said to have ordered US troops to take action against Iranians in Iraq.
Israel, everyone knows, wants the Americans to get involved in Iran. In a recent statement, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said the international community should put a stop to Iran's "nuclear ambitions". She claimed that Iran was a threat to all countries in the Middle East, not just Israel. Iran's aim, Livni said, was "not just to remove Israel from the map, but to reshape the region". The Sunday Times reported that Israel has made plans to destroy Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. The Israelis, however, are unlikely to attack Iran unless the Americans give them a green light. And once the conflict escalates, the Iranians are likely to retaliate, which means the Americans will have to get involved sooner or later.
For now, moderate Arab leaders are trying to stay on the good side of the Americans and the Israelis. They seem in general more eager to placate Washington than worried about Iran's role in fomenting sectarian strife in the region. Gulf countries and Jordan are not in a position to contradict US wishes. And yet, the policies currently implemented by the Americans are likely to boost Shia power in the region. Jordanian King Abdullah has already warned of a "Shia crescent" extending from Iran through Syria and Iraq all the way to Lebanon. The emergence of such crescent would have dangerous political implications, he pointed out.
Before meeting Condoleezza Rice in Cairo a few days ago, President Hosni Mubarak warned of Iran's link to sectarianism in the region. Speaking to Al-Osbou, the Egyptian president warned of Iran's acquisition of nuclear arms. "Egypt cannot stay silent while another regional power acquires nuclear weapons. The Arabs cannot live under a potential threat... This is something I cannot tolerate. I have a certain responsibility towards my people, and we cannot allow our security to be jeopardised... Egypt will not stand idly by. We will not remain inactive."
Repeated visits by US officials to Saudi Arabia suggest that the Bush administration is trying to extract a promise of support from the Saudis. According to a Pentagon official, Defense Secretary Robert Gates assured King Abdullah Bin Abdul-Aziz that Iraq would act as a buffer against Iranian expansion. The Pentagon is convinced that the Saudis are beginning to agree with its assessment of the situation in Iraq and the threat Iran is posing to the region. However, Riyadh may still be undecided. Prince Turki Al-Faysal, former Saudi ambassador to Washington and former head of the Saudi intelligence services, has warned Washington of intervention in Iran. Prince Turki said Riyadh was facing two possibilities, both bleak. One is for Iran to obtain the bomb, and the other is for the US to attack Iran. "In both cases... Saudi Arabia sees the consequences as being tragic to say the least," he said.
Iran remains defiant. In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Mundo during his visit to Nicaragua, President Ahmadinejad said that Israel and the US wouldn't dare attack his country. "They are aware of Iran's strength. I believe they will not do such a stupid thing." Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov confirmed that his country delivered short-range Tor-M1 missiles to Iran, adding that Moscow was willing to give Tehran any defensive weapons if asked. Russian military officials say the missiles would help defend Iran against air attacks. According to media reports, the Iranians tried and failed to acquire spare parts for US military systems through middlemen.
Should the Americans and the Israelis, with the help of Arab moderates, succeed in bringing Iran to its knees, the consequences would be dire for the entire region. Kenneth Pollack, director of research at the Saban Centre of The Brookings Institution, has said that a US campaign against Tehran may backfire, for it would widen the scope of US operations and drag the Americans into an international armed conflict. The Iranians, he added, will try to prove that they're not easy prey.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online
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