February 02, 2007
Well, apparently snippets of the Iran NIE are given a little corner inside the Iraq NIE just released (the declas parts of it). As expected, the consensus among all 16 intelligence agencies debunks the latest White House talking point (something along the lines of "Iran is leading the insurgency in Iraq" or a variation of that):
"Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics.
Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq. Syria continues to provide safehaven for expatriate Iraqi Bathists and to take less than adequate measures to stop the flow of foreign jihadists into Iraq. (Emphasis in the original NIE) "
What this means is that the insurgency is homegrown, sectarian based and that outside players are not the main foot soldiers of the insurgency.
That said, countries in the region have taken advantage of the civil war that is raging in Iraq by backing a side that is ideologically in line with their own interests. So Iran is backing some Shia groups and Syria is backing some of the Sunni groups.
What the report appears to be missing, however, is any reference to Saudi Arabia and their role in backing some of the Sunni groups, as well as Pakistan, backing anyone with cash to buy weapons.
I find that remarkable. What else I find incredibly disturbing is that there appears to be no discussions of context, for example, that the US is backing Shia groups as well and backing the Shia government now in control of Iraq.
So two US allies and the US itself even, do not appear in the report as providing the same material and financial support to the various groups on the ground in Iraq as Syria and Iran.
Interesting and I would wager that is the part that is still classified. Regardless of all the players, the obvious thing to take away from this is that the White House needs to locate a new talking point. Having failed to prove WMD program in Iran, the administration adopted a new version of reality whereby US soldiers were being killed by Iranians or by Shia supported by Iranians. That, however, is a very simplified and distorted view of the situation as we can clearly see. The US is backing Shia who happen to be running death squads against other Shia. The Saudis are arming Sunnis and the Syrians are giving them a safehaven. Pakistan is selling weapons and providing other types of support to both sides. Iran, while entering the fight - as it were - is doing what everyone else is doing, taking a side in a sectarian war. Incidentally, Iran and the US appear to be supporting the same side of the fight. Why is that?
One more thing, anyone spot the number of times al-Qaeda is mentioned in the report? Go on, go look for yourself and see how many times the big "osama-in-the-sky" is mentioned.
Why is the House of Saud's role not released? Why is Pakistan's role not released? Is the White House playing politics with our reality again? Looks like it to me. By releasing these snippets about Iraq (and Iran), the Bush cabal is playing fast and loose with the reality on the ground and politicizing intelligence again. I wonder what the Iranian Directorate is working on these days?
Update: here is a good round up of NIE discussions:
Spencer along some of the same lines as me
Creature notices the non-threat of Al Qaeda too
Joe and Larry Johnson both focus on the "worse than" civil war element
Carpetbagger wonders what Hadley NIE is reading (hmm, so do I come to think of it)
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