2007-03-19
AFGHANIBLOG COMMENT:
AFGHANIBLOG COMMENT:
This article details a US orchestrated scorched-earth policy: Better to destroy an asset, than to let it fall into the hands of an enemy.
From the perspective of Brzezinski’s “Grand Chessboard” – a logical choice.
From the perspective of an Afghan citizen – a genocidal choice.
-------------------------------------------
SUMMARY:
Questions posed:
“Why has the Trans-Afghan project not been realized yet?”
“Why has Afghanistan’s security and stabiliy not been achieved?”
“How long this situation will last?”
Success in Afghanistan (from a Russian perspective) means an important blow to the US’s Central Asia adventure and a competitive advantage in the energy wars. Russia with the support of General Dostum, Fahim and groups once related to Northern Alliance, may try to regain previously lost opportunities.
The US is aware if this and is leading the region in to new instabilities.
Foremost sources of instability are the disputes between Afghanistan-Pakistan, Pakistan-Iran. Consequently by stirring up “controlled crises”, US is continuing its existence in the region and showing her intention of taking initiatives in the regional sense.
Within this framework, and under US initiative, the realisation of a Trans-Afghan Project is less probable, with some experts claiming that the whole project is “dead”.
It is almost apparent that the US has been trying to freeze the project for some time. So to achieve this goal, the US is acting in a manner that is helping to inflate of problems between Pakistan and its neighbours Afghanistan, Iran and India.
Some of the possible reasons for US’s wish to suspend the project (through instability) are as follows:
1- governments of Turkmenistan and Pakistan are risky countries for US energy security
2- instability is the “justification” of US existence in the region
3- instability impedes regional cooperation projects
4- instability will continue regional “energy security” problems and maintain Indian and regional dependence on US
5- instability will sustain the high energy costs and so, slow development in the region
6- the Iran problem has not been solved yet
Until US achieves success in its own plans for the political and geographical framework of the region - , the future of the “Afghan problem” and Trans-Afghan Pipeline Project will not improve in the foreseeable future.
The countries participating in both the pipeline project and those dealing with “the Afghan problem” are well aware of this situation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is the biggest obstacle in front of Trans-Afghan Project?
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL is a senior researcher and Head of Central Asian Studies at USAK
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL is a senior researcher and Head of Central Asian Studies at USAK
GEO-POLITICS
If the US pulls its troops, the chances for a long term Karzai led Afghan government is bleak and Taliban’s return to power is likely.
In such a situation, the two neighbours of Afghanistan, namely Iran and Pakistan’s role will be the main determining factors and these two countries will use their elements in Afghanistan in the most effective way.
In this context, Hazaras and a number of Tacik groups are expected to align with Iran - whereas Pakistan will try to win the support of wider Peshtun groups over Taliban.
As a matter of fact, current developments and the intensified activites by Iran and Pakistan are an important indicator of this theory.
In this new equation, India’s chances are not strong.
India can only mimic the US’s pre-Afghan invasion strategy by supporting Northern alliance and Tajikistan and retain its position in the Eurasia centered second grand game or “New Grand Game”
The power to increase anxiety of this new game is ,without a doubt, Russia.
Russia with the support of groups once related to Northern Alliance, General Dostum and Fahim, may try to regain the previous chances she lost.
Therefore, a success achieved in Afghanistan, from a Russian perspective, means an important blow to the US’s Central Asia adventure and an competitive advantage in the energy wars.
This is, once more, brings the projects like “Trans Afghan Pipeline Project” which is also known as “Centgaz Natural Gas Pipeline” and other “not realised” projects in to attention.
WHY TRANS-AFGHAN PIPLINE
About the importance of the pipeline project the issues emphasized by UNOCAL’s vice president John J. Maresca’s speech before the US commitee in 1998, is still viable and explains the “justificability” of the project. These are:
1- Project route is the most logical and shortest path
2- Its convenience from an engineering perspective and the minimality of risks and obstacles expected during its construction
3- Therefore its cost is lower than other routes( for example, compared to a Trans Hazar Project)
4- This project is an important chance to decrease the influence of Russia and China on Central Asian oil and energy sources. (or vice versa, a blow to the US’s energy centered global power struggle and a dawn for regional cooperation based on energy that can harm US interests. In fact, Pakistan and India has given signals for such a cooperation just before 9/11. Afterwards, as India participated in this project in 2006, these signals have been repeated.)
Therefore Russia can bring up the north-south route into attention with this project, and can start a process in which Uzbekistan can involve. As a result, the new project may headstart new projects involving Tashkent and Tehran. This may look like a challenge to current situation for Russia, but this is an important milestone for Russian aims to be an “energy emperor” in the region.
Without a doubt, US is clearly reading this process/opportunism and therefore heading the region in to new instabilities. US has enough materials to achieve such a goal. Among them, the disputes between Afghanistan-Pakistan, Pakistan-Iran and Pakistan-Iran are the foremost ones. Consequently by stirring up “controlled crises”, US is continuing its existence in the region and showing her intention of taking initiatives in the regional sense.
So, with in the current framework, under the US initiative, realisation of a Trans-Afghan Project is less probable, even some experts claimed that the whole project is “dead”. Interesting point is that, one of the key countries for finishing the project is Pakistan.
But the problems between Pakistan and US is increasing day by day and even worse than this is the US’s provocation of such problems. US is almost trying to freeze the project for some time and to achieve such a goal US is seeming as if she is helping the inflation of problems between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a sense, it can be regarded that, this project which is one of the invasion reasons of Afghanistan has been accelerated a bit after 9/11, has been suspended by US.
The possible reasons for US’s wish to suspend the project are given as follows:
1- Beyond Afghan problem which was once regarded as the biggest obstacle for the project, the regimes/governments of Turkmenistan and Pakistan are risky countries for US from an energy security view.
2- As the Afghan problem approaches a solution, the “justification” of US existence in the region is expected to be an important discussion material and this may stamp the US as an “unwanted invader” among the Afghanian people and internal dynamics.
3- As the Afghan problem is solved, the process to start new regional cooperation projects increases their chances and hence the region gets stronger.
4- Iran problem has not been solved yet
5- The intention to continue supplying the regional energy demand from sources outside the region, hence to sustain the high costs for energy and slow down the fast growth in the region
6- To continue region’s especially India’s “energy security” problems for sometime, and in this regard increase the Indian and region’s dependence on US and US presence in the region in terms of energy security
The number of these reasons can be inflated. But, the primary issues are these.
By considering these reasons and the new developments in the region, the answers for questions such as “why Trans-Afghan project has not been realized yet”, “Why Afghanistan’s security and stabiliy have not been sustained?” and “How long this situation will last” are not far away.
As a result, the future of Afghan problem and Trans-Afghan Pipeline Project will not be in a better situation than it is now, until US realizes her plans to change the political and geographical framework in the region.
The participating countries for the project and Afghan problem are well aware of this situation and everyone is playing the part they should be playing or acting the way they should act.
=================================
BRZEZINSKI
(1998) Reviewed by Craig A. Snyder, Deakin University.
The central argument of the book is that while the United States dominates most of the world and has significant influence on the three peripheries of Eurasia (Western Europe, South West Asia, and the Far East), it is from the heartland of Eurasia that a potential rival may emerge.
He argues that the United States must therefore identify those states that may have the potential to shift the international balance-of power and once identified to formulate policies to counter or co-opt these state, so as to preserve American interests (pp. 39-40).
He identifies several "geostrategic players" (Germany, France, Russia, China and to a lesser extent Japan) as potential rivals for Eurasian hegemony.
He also identifies several "geopolitical pivots" that would be critical for the rise of these potential hegemonic challengers. Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran he argues are crucial for any revival of Russian dominance in Eurasia (pp. 40-48).
----------------------------------------------------------------
AFGHANIBLOG COMMENTS:
By failing to pay for police – you insure a criminal police force. This easy solution shows a lack of interest in proper policing.
By refusing to provide the basics of existence (food) – you create the opportunity for criminal enterprise.
By transferring “development money” to your own national corporations – you starve real development (while truthfully claiming that money is being spent.)
By failing to divert poppy monies from druglords – you ensure the Taliban is a viable entity.
By doing this for decades – you create a scorched-earth society.
Mission Accomplished
No comments:
Post a Comment