Mahmoud Abbas has been backed by international players in his call for early elections, but what do they think this will achieve?
As Hamas and Fatah supporters took to the streets to express their protest or support in response to Mahmoud Abbas's decision to call for early presidential elections and battled each other with stones and bullets, congratulatory gestures of support landed at Abbas's front door from the three major international players that have together designed and imposed the sanctions regime against the Palestinians. The White House, Tony Blair and the Israeli government thought Abbas had done the right thing and urged the world community to support him in his last bid to rid them of a Hamas-led government. It is these three parties, and to a lesser extent those that complied with their instructions, that carry the burden of any Palestinian blood that is being shed with Palestinian hands as a result of the current crisis.
The last resort tactic by Abbas illustrates the depth of the predicament in which he, his clique of advisers (or more accurately minders) and his international sponsors find themselves. Despite many months of sanctions, Hamas managed quite well, given the circumstances in which it has been left to administer Palestinian affairs. The tight grip of the "international community" could not prevent the movement from bringing in enough money to pay civil servants several advance payments and to keep the basic health and educational services running. The hardship caused by the sanctions did little to convince the Palestinians that Hamas was responsible; the majority of the victims of the regime of collective punishment did not blame Hamas, which to them was equally a victim. Polls conducted by local and international bodies inside the West Bank and Gaza kept pointing to a rise in the popularity of Hamas countered by an erosion of respect for Fatah and its beleaguered leadership.
In other words the sanctions, which had been the international community's prize awarded to the losers of the January 25 2006 democratic elections, failed to deliver. Without the sanctions Abbas and his "minders" would have been totally disarmed; they would have had nothing to justify their insistence upon the need for a Palestinian government that should meet the demands of the international community.
The very successful tour of a number of countries in the Middle East by the Palestinian prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, seemed to threaten the US-led sanctions regime. An increasing number of countries, Arab and non-Arab and Islamic and non-Islamic, have shown signs of defiance and determination to break the embargo. Some, like Qatar, Iran, Bahrain and Sudan, have openly made commitments to pay the salaries of Palestinian employees in the health and education sectors and to rebuild the houses and government buildings destroyed by the Israelis.
Haniyeh arrived back with a considerable amount of cash and the bulk of the financial commitment promised by the countries he visited was to follow. But his return was deliberately pre-empted by a renewed wave of lawlessness that claimed the lives of three innocent children and a judge. As he crossed the border from Egypt into Gaza shots were fired at him, killing his bodyguard and wounding his son and his political adviser. Instead of a celebratory triumphal climate, storms of factional tension blew over the strip instilling fear and anxiety in the minds of most of its residents.
What does the world community think it can achieve from all of this? A resolution of the conflict, as Blair so naively believes? A resumption of negotiations with a Palestinian party on Israeli terms as Olmert so arrogantly expects? An end to all Palestinian struggles for justice as the neocon-led US administration so ignorantly hopes? Or an end to rivalry by an Islamic resistance movement that is loyal to the Palestinian dream as Abbas and his minders wish?
The only thing that is likely to come out of all the intrigues is a civil war that will rage for a while. But eventually, Israel will pay and so will those who provide it with unconditional support. One of the most immediate losers, though, will be Tony Blair whose endeavour to resume the political process between the Palestinian and the Israelis before he retires from politics has been dealt a fatal blow by virtue of his support for Abbas's intended coup against the democratically elected government of the Palestinians.
There is only one way out of the current crisis, and that is for the sanctions to be immediately lifted. The immediate consequence of that would be the formation of a national unity government without dictation from any outside power. In the absence of blackmail, Hamas, Fatah and all the other Palestinian factions and political groups within Palestine will meet and agree on the terms and conditions of their unity government whose main functions would be to serve the Palestinians and not the Israelis.
As for the Israelis, their only guarantee of peace and security would be to recognise the legitimate rights of the Palestinians and enter with their elected representatives into negotiations for a long-term truce.
Dr Azzam Tamimi is the director of the Institute of Islamic Political Thought (IIPT), London. He has been visiting professor at Kyoto University (2004) and Nagoya University (2006). He has published several books, the most recent of which was on Islam and democracy, Rachid Ghannouchi, Democrat within Islamism (Oxford University Press, New York, 2001). He also co-edited Islam and Secularism in the Middle East (Hurst, London and NY University Press, New York, 2000). Another book, Hamas, the Unwritten Chapters, is due in summer 2006. He writes and lectures on issues related to Islamic political thought and Middle Eastern politics. He is a regular commentator on the Arabic satellite channel al-Jazeera and makes frequent appearances on a number of other channels, both English and Arabic.
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