Wednesday, 10 January 2007
by Larry C Johnson
George Bush still does not get it. The war in Iraq is not and never has been about terrorism. The attacks, the vast majority of attacks carried out against U.S. troops and Iraqis, are not the work of foreign jihadists operating under the direction of Osama Bin Laden. The facts on the ground do not support it.
Although U.S. forces have killed the head of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Zarqawi, violence has soared unabated. The reason is simple and the solution complex. The U.S. presence in Iraq has unleashed a sectarian war that pits Sunni against Shia. The United States now finds itself confronted with equally unpalatable choices: 1) Back the Sunnis and piss of the Shias, or 2) Back the Shias and piss off the Sunnis.
Bush tonight signals that we are going to pitch our tent with the Shias except we also are going to fight the one Shia, Moktada al Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia, who are the most anti-iranian of the Shia. Great! The one group of Shias not closely aligned with Iran are the ones we will attack. This is madness.
Bush also has ignored the recent National Intelligence Estimate, which says that the U.S. presence in Iraq is fueling terrorism not diminishing it. Putting more U.S. troops into Baghdad who will be killing more Iraqis will simply embitter more Iraqis and speed recruitment of aspiring terrorists.
In casting our lot with Iraqi police we are supporting a Shia force that is the main mover behind the death squads. The Sunnis get that message loud and clear and will hold us responsible. That means more attacks against American soldiers.
The Army also is largely Shia. This is not a deal that the Sunnis can live with. Meanwhile, by going after Moktada al Sadr we are opening the door to SCIRI and its principals, such as Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who are in bed with Iran. We will also increase the likelihood that Moktada and his forces will step up their attacks against U.S. forces. Unlike the Sunnis, Moktada and his followers can shutdown the U.S. supply line that keeps our troops watered and fed. At the end of the day, the U.S. position in the region will be weakened and diminished. Mission accomplished?
At the very moment that Bush wants to isolate Iran we are taking steps to strengthen the very elements in Iraq most closely aligned with Iran. At the same time we are stepping up our efforts to destroy the Iraqi elements least sympathetic to Iran. What is Bush trying to do?
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