"Islam doesn't have a Pope. So there isn't one guy who can say, 'This isn't kosher.'"
-- Fareed Zakaria
That's why I love Fareed. He's got a grasp on the situation. He can break it down for you in simple terms that make it clear where the problems are. And he brings the funny. Unfortunately, you have to work really hard to find the funny in Iraq these days.
The recent reports of massive military operations are going to get all sorts of attention the next few weeks. Early reports aren't doing anything to brighten my spirits. However, it is still crucial we get a clear sense of the situation so we can see where the problems are, even if Dubya & Friends can't be bothered.
I know that the recent operation in Najaf is going to be played out as some sort of victory vindicating the Decider'sTM New and Improved Strategy For VictoryTM. In reality, this is like trying to quell unrest in Northern Ireland by helping Protestants kill Catholics at the start of Lent.
Actually, it is worse.
Four things you need to know
1)Sunni vs. Shi'ite
2)Where is Najaf?
3)What is Ashura?
4)Who is Muqtada al Sadr?
A couple of other things will shake out from these four main points, but these are critical. If you can't follow this, the spinmeisters in the Right Wing Echo Chamber will play you like a fool. Glenn Beck will have a field day with you. You don't want to be played for a fool, right?
Sunni vs. Shi'ite.
Basically, it boils down to whether you believe that Mohammed's successor had to be from his blood line or if any man could potentially have taken the job. The split is evident in the profession of faith, called the Shehada, used by the two sects.
The Shia say:
There is no god but Alláh, Muhammad is the Messenger of Alláh, Alí is the Friend of Alláh. The Successor of the Messenger of Alláh And his first Caliph."
The Sunni leave out the stuff about Ali. Unfortunately for the Shia, Ali's blood line was exterminated in 873 CE. They don't buy it and prefer to believe the final Caliph is "hidden" and will return some day to lead them. While they are waiting the Ulema, or council of Ayatollahs, plays the role of central dispenser of all laws and edicts. The Sunnis of course don't recognize the authority of the Ulema.
It's not a perfect analogy but think of it as similar to comparing Roman Catholics to Baptists.
When you look at a map of Iraq, you find the Sunni and Shia are spread out, with some mixing in the South. Note that Najaf is predominantly Shia territory. Najaf is actually a central place for Shia, second only to the Iranian city of Qom as a center of spiritual learning. It has tons of mosques and universities. If you follow the river North, before you hit Fallujah, you wind up at Karbala. That's a really important city. Ali was slaughtered with his troops in Karbala trying to regain control of Caliphate. His tomb is there.
What is Ashura?
Ashura is the most solemn holy commemoration on the Shia calendar. The observance of Ashura was outlawed by Saddam. Ashura commemorates the death of Mohammed's grandson, Ali. The death of Ali is observed by Shia with pilgrimages to Karbala. Only Mecca and Medina see more pilgrims. Unlike the pilgrimage to Mecca, this one is full of sadness and grief. Ali's martyrdom is widely interpreted by Shi'a as a symbol of the struggle against injustice, tyranny, and oppression. They beat their chests and flagellate themselves in an effort to connect with his suffering. The pictures you see of people walking through the streets bleeding come from these processions. Think of it as Yom Kippur or Lent, but with a severe beating. Oh, by the way, today is the first day of Ashura. It lasts for 10 days.
What about Muqtada al Sadr?
He is the leader of the largest Shi'ite militia in the country. Najaf and Karbala are completely in his area of operations. Controlling Karbala means he controls the tomb of Ali. That is a major source of revenue. Think of it as controlling St. Peter's Basilica, the most prominent basilica outside of Vatican City. Imagine the revenue stream.
Sadr's militias are the same militias that everyone has been telling Maliki he needs to stand up to if they are going to take him seriously. Taking on the Mahdi Army is easier said then done. A US sponsored poll in 2004 found that 2/3 of the people in Iraq support Sadr.
To Sum Up
US forces just had a knock down fight which resulted in the death of hundreds of "insurgents" just north of Najaf. This is Shi'ite territory. The main fighting force in the area is a Shi'ite militia with significant local support. The fighting occured just as the Shia enter the holiest period of mourning on their calendar. For the next couple of weeks, Shia are going to be streaming in to the area as pilgrims commemorating an historic event that symbolizes the ongoing struggle against injustice, tyranny, and oppression.
Oh...and another thing... The heaviest concentration of Shia Muslims outside of Iraq is in ... IRAN. A lot of Iranians make that pilgrimage now that Saddam is gone. Remember that edict from Dubya that authorizes the killing of any Iranians caught in Iraq? Depending on your point of view, Bush could not have picked a better (or worse) time to declare open season on Iranian pilgrims.
We're going to see a lot of images over the next couple of weeks from this area. I am certain the media is not going to draw any of the distinctions I have laid out here. As far as they are concerned, this is just more of the "we're fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" meme. As you can see the differences are important.
If I am correct, the US just poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning out of control.
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