mardi, mars 06, 2007
Destruction of BagdadIsraeli Ambitions in Iraq Unraveled
PalestineFreeVoice Mars 5 2007
Early Predictions & Analyses
Israel's economic and trade involvement in Iraq is easy to discern. What is harder to gauge is its strategic and political involvement in that country. Israel's involvement is not homogeneous all over Iraq. Israel favors the Kurdish north, which has been under self-rule since the end of the Gulf war in 1991. Israel managed to infiltrate the northern areas with US help and became involved in various security, economic, and political activities in these areas. In central and southern Iraq, Israel managed to get a foothold only after the collapse of Saddam's regime.
Israel was pleased to see Saddam removed. Under the Baath regime, Iraq was actively involved in Arab-Israeli conflict. It even fired ballistic missiles at Israel during the Gulf war. Iraq was a staunch opponent to the Arab-Israeli peace process, and its rumoured quest for mass destruction weapons worried the Israelis. Saddam's overthrow came as a relief to Israel. Suddenly, Iraq was no longer a military force to contend with in the case of a regional war. In addition, Syria was deprived form the strategic depth that Iraq, despite all ideological differences,
With Saddam ousted, the regional balance of power changed in Israel's favor. Many Israeli analysts saw Saddam's fall as a blow to pan-Arabism. This, they predicted, would increase isolationism in the Arab world and make every country focus on its narrow interests, which suits Israel just fine. Under Saddam's pan-Arab regime, Baghdad saw Israel as a colonial enemy, a usurper with international backing. This was about to change. A US-backed Iraqi regime may just offer Israel the trade and political ties it had long sought.
But things are not as simple as that. Israel is concerned over the possibility of Iranian-backed Shiites taking over Iraq. If this happens, Israel's interests would be endangered once again. The Iranian threat would get closer to Israel, and a new wave of regional rejection of Israel may be in the offing, a wave that could prove fiercer than any in the past.
Israel sees the Kurds as potential strategic allies, as an insurance policy against a turnabout in Iraq's approach to Israel in the future. Signs of Israeli-Kurdish cooperation have been in evidence since the early 1990s, when the Kurdish north was virtually cut off from the rest of the country. Israel wants to boost the status and power of Kurds in the new Iraq, in the hope that they would either have a key role in running the country or secede.
Shortly after the war, in which Israel provided help in many ways to the Americans, the US said that there is no reason why Israeli companies should not be involved in the reconstruction of Iraq or the supply of materials and services to that country. Israeli companies were allowed to bid for contracts in Iraq, which they did.
Israel won a number of contracts in Iraq, mostly as a supplied of goods and services to the US occupation authorities. Israel focuses on oil projects, because it wishes to import oil from Iraq. Israeli official have spoken of the possibility of Iraqi oil being exported through Haifa. But the Israeli government denies any intention to reactivate the old pipeline that used to link Keokuk, Mosul, and Haifa.
Most Israeli commercial activities concentrate in northern Iraq, where security and political conditions are favorable. Several Israeli companies have licenses to operate in various parts of Iraqi Kurdistan. Many have set up business in Irbil, al-Sulaymaniya, and Mosul, supplying telephone, water, and other services. Israeli exports to north Iraq are estimated at $50 million annually.
Since summer 2003, Israel has been buying real estate in various parts of Iraq, particularly in the north. Israeli rabbis and experts, specialized in Iraqi affairs, are visiting Iraq in increasing numbers to set the scene for further cooperation. Part of the enthusiasm may be biblical, but most is connected to economic and security reasons. Politically, Israel wishes to defiant pan-Arabism in Iraq. It is pleased to see some Iraqi expatriates stress Iraq's pree-Islamic history and tribal characteristics.
Pan-Arabism is one thing the Israelis and Americans detest in common. Both urge the Iraqis to forge closer ties with the US, and Israel by extension, and turn their back on their Arab surroundings. In Iraq, former military commanders with pan-Arab leanings have been disbanded and a new military doctrine, one that does not view Israel as the enemy is being honed. Iraq's military is being encouraged to be professional, in other words to distance itself from the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israel helped the US plan the war against Saddam. Since then, the two countries have coordinated closely in strategic, military, and intelligence matters. The Abu Gharib scandal shows that Israeli investigators have been involved in the interrogation of Iraqi prisoners. The Israelis imparted to the Americans some of their methods in confronting the Palestinian intifada. Significantly, the US raid on Faluja in 2004 bears striking resemblance to the Israeli raid on Jenin in 2002.
The Mossad has set up clandestine offices in the main cities of Kurdistan, such as Dahuk, Mosul, al-Sulaymaniya, and Irbil. These offices help Israel keep an eye on the borders with Syria, Turkey, and Iran. The Mossad is involved in numerous operations in Iraq, such as the liquidation of Iraqi scientists and technicians who are linked with Iraq's mass destruction weapons programs. The Mossad helps the Americans track down Iraqi resistance fighters. It also monitors Iranian activities in Iraq.
Israel favors the partition of Iraq in three parts, but it realizes that this option may conflict with US interests and views. The US needs a unified Iraq to counter the Iranian influence in the Gulf. Besides, Iraq's partition could cause trouble for Turkey.
Israel's involvement in Iraq is no picnic, however. With resistance and international opposition to occupation escalating, the US is not in a mood to let Israel have a free hand in Iraq. There was a time, just after the war, when US officials said publicly that there is no reason why Israel should not be involved economically and commercially in Iraq. Such statements are seldom at present. Even the Israeli government is now denying that it has oil-related or commercial ambitions in Iraq. In 2004, the Israeli foreign ministry has repeatedly warned its citizens, particularly the businessmen, of the perils facing them in Iraq. In more than one occasion, the Israeli government pointed out the risk of Israelis getting abducted in Iraq.
Israeli companies in Iraq observe strict security measures. They often work under the guise of other nationalities or hire Israelis with Iraqi or Kurdish origins to blend in with the scene. The Israelis may have used Iraqi passports which they obtained from the US occupation authorities in Iraq.
One of the obstacles facing Israeli involvement in Iraq is the attitude of the Iraqi interim government. Senior Iraqi officials, including those close to the US, have distanced themselves from the Israelis. Iraqi officials deny that Israelis have come to Iraq in large numbers or that Israel is using Iraq as an intelligence base. Iraqi officials say that their country is not going to be used as a base for any anti-Arab activity. They point out that Iraq will have ties with Israel only once a just and comprehensive peace is reached.
Israel has two main goals in Iraq: (a) to make Iraq adopt a more lenient policy toward it, and (b) to establish full diplomatic and trade links. Israel's success in achieving these goals depends on what the Iraqis and Arabs do. Should the Arabs fail to help the Iraqis in their efforts to rebuild their country, Iraq would be vulnerable to foreign influence, Israeli or otherwise.
Author Dr Ahmad Ibrahim Mahmud
Center for Political & Strategical Studies
Issue 25:11 Dec.2004
Israel was pleased to see Saddam removed. Under the Baath regime, Iraq was actively involved in Arab-Israeli conflict. It even fired ballistic missiles at Israel during the Gulf war. Iraq was a staunch opponent to the Arab-Israeli peace process, and its rumoured quest for mass destruction weapons worried the Israelis. Saddam's overthrow came as a relief to Israel. Suddenly, Iraq was no longer a military force to contend with in the case of a regional war. In addition, Syria was deprived form the strategic depth that Iraq, despite all ideological differences,
With Saddam ousted, the regional balance of power changed in Israel's favor. Many Israeli analysts saw Saddam's fall as a blow to pan-Arabism. This, they predicted, would increase isolationism in the Arab world and make every country focus on its narrow interests, which suits Israel just fine. Under Saddam's pan-Arab regime, Baghdad saw Israel as a colonial enemy, a usurper with international backing. This was about to change. A US-backed Iraqi regime may just offer Israel the trade and political ties it had long sought.
But things are not as simple as that. Israel is concerned over the possibility of Iranian-backed Shiites taking over Iraq. If this happens, Israel's interests would be endangered once again. The Iranian threat would get closer to Israel, and a new wave of regional rejection of Israel may be in the offing, a wave that could prove fiercer than any in the past.
Israel sees the Kurds as potential strategic allies, as an insurance policy against a turnabout in Iraq's approach to Israel in the future. Signs of Israeli-Kurdish cooperation have been in evidence since the early 1990s, when the Kurdish north was virtually cut off from the rest of the country. Israel wants to boost the status and power of Kurds in the new Iraq, in the hope that they would either have a key role in running the country or secede.
Shortly after the war, in which Israel provided help in many ways to the Americans, the US said that there is no reason why Israeli companies should not be involved in the reconstruction of Iraq or the supply of materials and services to that country. Israeli companies were allowed to bid for contracts in Iraq, which they did.
Israel won a number of contracts in Iraq, mostly as a supplied of goods and services to the US occupation authorities. Israel focuses on oil projects, because it wishes to import oil from Iraq. Israeli official have spoken of the possibility of Iraqi oil being exported through Haifa. But the Israeli government denies any intention to reactivate the old pipeline that used to link Keokuk, Mosul, and Haifa.
Most Israeli commercial activities concentrate in northern Iraq, where security and political conditions are favorable. Several Israeli companies have licenses to operate in various parts of Iraqi Kurdistan. Many have set up business in Irbil, al-Sulaymaniya, and Mosul, supplying telephone, water, and other services. Israeli exports to north Iraq are estimated at $50 million annually.
Since summer 2003, Israel has been buying real estate in various parts of Iraq, particularly in the north. Israeli rabbis and experts, specialized in Iraqi affairs, are visiting Iraq in increasing numbers to set the scene for further cooperation. Part of the enthusiasm may be biblical, but most is connected to economic and security reasons. Politically, Israel wishes to defiant pan-Arabism in Iraq. It is pleased to see some Iraqi expatriates stress Iraq's pree-Islamic history and tribal characteristics.
Pan-Arabism is one thing the Israelis and Americans detest in common. Both urge the Iraqis to forge closer ties with the US, and Israel by extension, and turn their back on their Arab surroundings. In Iraq, former military commanders with pan-Arab leanings have been disbanded and a new military doctrine, one that does not view Israel as the enemy is being honed. Iraq's military is being encouraged to be professional, in other words to distance itself from the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israel helped the US plan the war against Saddam. Since then, the two countries have coordinated closely in strategic, military, and intelligence matters. The Abu Gharib scandal shows that Israeli investigators have been involved in the interrogation of Iraqi prisoners. The Israelis imparted to the Americans some of their methods in confronting the Palestinian intifada. Significantly, the US raid on Faluja in 2004 bears striking resemblance to the Israeli raid on Jenin in 2002.
The Mossad has set up clandestine offices in the main cities of Kurdistan, such as Dahuk, Mosul, al-Sulaymaniya, and Irbil. These offices help Israel keep an eye on the borders with Syria, Turkey, and Iran. The Mossad is involved in numerous operations in Iraq, such as the liquidation of Iraqi scientists and technicians who are linked with Iraq's mass destruction weapons programs. The Mossad helps the Americans track down Iraqi resistance fighters. It also monitors Iranian activities in Iraq.
Israel favors the partition of Iraq in three parts, but it realizes that this option may conflict with US interests and views. The US needs a unified Iraq to counter the Iranian influence in the Gulf. Besides, Iraq's partition could cause trouble for Turkey.
Israel's involvement in Iraq is no picnic, however. With resistance and international opposition to occupation escalating, the US is not in a mood to let Israel have a free hand in Iraq. There was a time, just after the war, when US officials said publicly that there is no reason why Israel should not be involved economically and commercially in Iraq. Such statements are seldom at present. Even the Israeli government is now denying that it has oil-related or commercial ambitions in Iraq. In 2004, the Israeli foreign ministry has repeatedly warned its citizens, particularly the businessmen, of the perils facing them in Iraq. In more than one occasion, the Israeli government pointed out the risk of Israelis getting abducted in Iraq.
Israeli companies in Iraq observe strict security measures. They often work under the guise of other nationalities or hire Israelis with Iraqi or Kurdish origins to blend in with the scene. The Israelis may have used Iraqi passports which they obtained from the US occupation authorities in Iraq.
One of the obstacles facing Israeli involvement in Iraq is the attitude of the Iraqi interim government. Senior Iraqi officials, including those close to the US, have distanced themselves from the Israelis. Iraqi officials deny that Israelis have come to Iraq in large numbers or that Israel is using Iraq as an intelligence base. Iraqi officials say that their country is not going to be used as a base for any anti-Arab activity. They point out that Iraq will have ties with Israel only once a just and comprehensive peace is reached.
Israel has two main goals in Iraq: (a) to make Iraq adopt a more lenient policy toward it, and (b) to establish full diplomatic and trade links. Israel's success in achieving these goals depends on what the Iraqis and Arabs do. Should the Arabs fail to help the Iraqis in their efforts to rebuild their country, Iraq would be vulnerable to foreign influence, Israeli or otherwise.
Author Dr Ahmad Ibrahim Mahmud
Center for Political & Strategical Studies
Issue 25:11 Dec.2004
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