Half of Americans Expect Conflict with Iran in Next Year

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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Half of Americans Expect Conflict with Iran

April 9, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many adults in the United States believe a military conflict with Iran could develop within the next year, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 55 per cent of respondents think it is likely that the U.S. will be at war with Iran.

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by United States president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006, the United Nations (UN) Security Council unanimously voted to impose sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment. On Jan. 2, Ahmadinejad declared, "Let the world know that from the Iranian nation’s point of view, this resolution has no validity. I want (the United States) to know that the Iranian nation has humiliated you many times, and it will humiliate you in future."

On Apr. 3, Bush discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "I firmly believe that if Iran were to have a nuclear weapon, it would be a seriously destabilizing influence in the Middle East. And therefore, we have worked to build an international coalition to try to convince the Iranians to give up their weapon, to make it clear that they have choices to make—whether the choice be isolation, or missed opportunity to grow their economies."

Polling Data

How likely is it that the United States will be at war with Iran within the next year?

	Mar. 2007	Feb. 2007
Very likely	23%	23%
Somewhat likely	32%	34%
Not very likely	31%	26%
Not at all likely	4%	6%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted on Mar. 28 and Mar. 29, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.