ING Bank: 'Attacking Iran: The market impact of a surprise Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities'

Posted On: Friday, January 12, 2007, 2:17:00 PM EST

Gold Performing On Its own In Excess Of Small Inverse Relationship To The Dollar

Author: Jim Sinclair

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Below is a balanced good read from a universally respected non-gold source.

It is important to note that gold is performing on its own in excess of the small inverse relationship to the dollar. There is more than meets the eye in yesterday and today's events.

Here is a balanced appraisal of the market impact of a surprise attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities by a highly respected international banking and finance group. Although ING sees it possible but not probable, the read is clearly from a conservative standpoint.

My reaction is that should such an event take place it would NOT STOP right there and that is what would make it a SIGMA 10 event.

It is important to note that gold is performing on its own in excess of the small inverse relationship to the dollar. There is more than meets the eye in yesterday and today's events. I do not accept other points of motivation.


Attacking Iran
The market impact of a surprise Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities

The financial markets are assuming that an Israeli and/or US attack on Iran is unlikely. However, bellicose rhetoric from Israel and an imminent build-up of US forces in the Gulf suggest that they could be in for a shock.

An imminent attack would seem unlikely, given the weakness of the Israeli and US administrations, and hopes for regime change in Iran. However, Iran’s threats to Israel’s existence, and fears that it will acquire nuclear weapons within two years, suggest that President Bush may sanction action before he leaves office at the end of 2008.

However, within a month the US will have two aircraft carrier battle groups and a new expeditionary Marine strike force in the Persian Gulf, which might provide a shield for an Israeli bombing of Iran’s facilities. Israel reportedly has the weaponry to at least delay the nuclear programme.

A key imponderable is the extent of Iranian retaliation. Although missile and terrorist attacks on Israel and US interests would be likely, the threat of massive US retaliation, regional conflict and long-term damage to its political and commercial interests might limit Iran’s response.

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