Showing posts with label Central Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central Bank. Show all posts

Friday, May 4, 2007

Fast, Loose Credit Scares Even the Buyout Gurus

Mark Gilbert

By Mark Gilbert

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Central bankers aren't the only people distressed by lax lending standards. Even the dealmakers who depend on cheap finance with few strings attached are complaining that finance is too cheap and there aren't enough strings.

``There's too much liquidity in the system,'' Philip Yea, chief executive officer of 3i Group Plc, Europe's largest publicly traded venture-capital and buyout firm, said last month. ``There's too much debt available.''

Too much debt available? That's tantamount to Kate Moss complaining that her photo is in too many magazines, Steve Jobs moaning about iPod ubiquity or Madonna criticizing African nations for not having more stringent child-adoption policies.

So what's going on here? Why, in the fastest, loosest credit markets seen since a tulip bulb was worth as much as a house, are the supposed beneficiaries of loan largess bleating about easy money and the boom in global liquidity from Texas to Tokyo?

Is it because cut-price loans are propping open the mergers- and-acquisitions door for interlopers? Are existing leveraged- buyout specialists concerned about new entrants pushing up prices, and exacerbating the risk that a big deal will sour and attract the unwelcome attention of regulators?

Steve Rattner, co-founder of buyout firm Quadrangle Group LLC, told Bloomberg reporter Edward Evans in January that ``the world isn't pricing risk appropriately. Investors are simply not being paid for the risks they're taking.''

Ninja Loans

You might have expected renewed caution among lenders after the willingness of some U.S. mortgage companies to grant so- called Ninja loans -- No Income, No Job or Assets -- triggered the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market and helped sink an armada of companies.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., says the subprime debacle has had a domino effect on the rest of the credit market -- just not the one you might have expected.

``We're seeing fewer investments in subprime, but that money needs to be put to work so they're going into other credit markets,'' Fink said in an interview published by the Financial Times newspaper last week. ``Historically, when we've seen one problem, we've seen an adjustment throughout the marketplace. We've seen no indication of that yet. We've seen the actual opposite.''

While liquidity is notoriously hard to define, the Bank of England took a stab at quantifying it last month in its Financial Stability Report. The central bank combined some key market measures -- the gaps between bid and offer prices on bonds, currencies and stocks, the ratio of market returns to trading volumes, and spreads in the credit market -- to produce an index showing that financial-market liquidity is at its highest level since at least 1992, and has doubled in the past four years.

Loaded With Debt

``Markets are currently very liquid and have been so over the past few years,'' the central bank wrote in the report. ``Maximum debt levels for European LBOs are now consistently above seven or eight times earnings, whereas the maximum was around six times earnings a year ago.''

While that extra leverage makes deals more risky, it isn't deterring newcomers from getting in on the action. ``There's a lot of money in the Middle East that the private-equity companies can now access,'' said Colin McKay, the New York-based head of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP's private-equity division in March. ``The force that hasn't even entered yet into the private-equity market to any degree is the trade surplus in China and where that's going to be invested.''

`Capital Everywhere'

Investment banks used to be content to take a fee for advising on takeovers; now they can demand equity participation, boosting the pool of capital available to get deals done.

``There's capital everywhere,'' buyout doyen Henry Kravis of Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co. said at a New York conference last week. ``It's very smart of these firms to be in it. I just wish they wouldn't compete with us, but they do.''

In the U.S., the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the nation's biggest public pension fund, is allocating more money to private-equity firms. In Canada, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the Public Sector Pension Investment Board and the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan have all said they might bid for BCE Inc., the country's biggest telephone services provider. In the U.K., the Wellcome Trust Ltd. charity is part of a group trying to buy drugstore company Alliance Boots Plc.

As more buyers enter the fray, prices for doing deals rise, eroding the internal rate of return on transactions. In a low- yield environment, however, even a slowing bandwagon can be an attractive investment vehicle for latecomers.

Settling for Less

``Inevitably, returns can't be as good as they've been,'' David Rubenstein, co-founder of Carlyle Group, said last week. ``The returns that people will be able to get are better than anything else they can do with their money, at least that's legal.''

The biggest worry that the LBO community has, though, is that an overpriced, overleveraged deal will collapse. ``Some of these deals will go bad,'' Quadrangle's Rattner said in January.

When you borrowed from a bank, there was room to negotiate a rescue when the business plan melted. When your lender is a hedge fund trying to deliver monthly returns, the ear may not be anywhere near as sympathetic.

(Mark Gilbert is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Mark Gilbert in London at magilbert@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 2, 2007 19:16 EDT

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Bank warns of increased risks to the UK's financial system

By Jane Padgham

Published: 26 April 2007

The Bank of England issued a stark warning today that the dangers surrounding the UK's financial system have risen over the past nine months. It said benign economic conditions had made banks complacent about risk-taking, some companies were loading themselves up with worryingly high levels of debt, complex credit derivatives were untested in times of turbulence and some debt-laden households were showing "signs of stress". It said the recent US sub-prime mortgage crisis was a salutary reminder of how credit risk assessment can go disastrously wrong, and how participants can be hit by sharp reductions in market liquidity.

In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Bank said the financial system remained "highly resilient". But it urged banks to be alert to the growing risks and take them into account. It singled out the corporate bond market and its associated derivatives market, which has exploded in size in recent years, as particularly vulnerable.

The six key danger areas identified by the report are: unusually low premia for bearing risk, especially in credit markets; high and rising leverage in parts of the corporate sector; rising systemic importance of large complex financial institutions, ie. the big investment banks and securities houses; dependence of UK financial institutions on market infrastructures and utilities, for example the smooth running of the London Stock Exchange and the BACS clearing system; large financial imbalances among the major economies; high UK household sector indebtedness.

Sir John Gieve, the Bank's deputy governor for financial stability, said: "Financial markets have continued to be vibrant, core institutions are highly profitable and the economic outlook is favourable. But risk-taking is increasing, including through higher leverage, lower margin requirements and relaxation of covenants. The rapid growth in credit risk transfer markets [such as collateralised debt obligations] is also making more participants dependent on continuous market liquidity and could amplify the impact of shocks like a sharp reversal in credit spreads from their current low levels."

Sir John, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, said there were few signs that America's sub-prime mortgage crisis would cross the Atlantic. He also played down fears that rising insolvencies and home repossessions could spark a housing crash and undermine financial stability. "We watch the housing market at the MPC every month and there are some signs of easing off," he said. "I don't see this [rising household debt] as likely to precipitate a financial crisis."

Interest rates 'could reach 7.5pc'

Interest rates 'could reach 7.5pc'
Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph
A group of Britain's leading monetarists have launched a harsh attack on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warning that inflation risks surging out of control in repeat of earlier boom-bust cycles.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Central Banks Face Rising Pressure From Politicians

(Update2)

By Simon Kennedy and Matthew Benjamin

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- When politicians tried to pressure former European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, he used to say: ``I hear, but I do not listen.'' These days, a growing number of central bankers worldwide are hearing a lot -- and some are listening.

The Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates last month in the wake of government pressure. The autonomy of banks from Ecuador to India is under attack. French presidential candidates are demanding the ECB meet a goal for growth.

``Political pressure is definitely intensifying,'' says Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The central bankers under the gun have already helped deliver the strongest global expansion in 30 years and kept a lid on prices. If they wind up running ``politically compromised monetary policies,'' Roach predicts, ``ultimately, you'll get more inflation.''

While lobbying central banks is one thing, meddling is another, says former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer. ``The danger here is to inflation expectations,'' says Meyer, Washington- based vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. ``Market participants will have less confidence in central-bank independence in the face of political pressure.''

The Bank of Japan's standing has already suffered in financial markets after Governor Toshihiko Fukui and fellow policy makers unexpectedly left the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 percent last month. That came after Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and other officials said the bank should consider the government's view when setting rates.

Indirect Pressure

``The government has been putting indirect pressure on the bank not to raise rates,'' says Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. Shiozaki repeated his advice last week, and Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii urged the bank to support economic recovery.

The perception that politics may be playing a role in monetary policy leaves traders in doubt about what the bank will do this week, says Peter Morgan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

Interest-rate swaps suggest a 61 percent chance of an increase, according to Credit Suisse Group. Before the bank surprised investors by leaving rates unchanged last month, traders saw as much as an 80 percent chance of an increase at January's meeting.

`Confusion'

``There's a fair degree of confusion now,'' says Morgan. ``The bank has denied it, but it's hard to eliminate the suspicion there was some political pressure and that it's still in place.''

Monetary policy is becoming especially politicized in economies without a strong tradition of central-bank independence. In Europe, the central banks of Slovenia, which joined the euro last month, and Poland have become embroiled in political disputes over who should run them.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's advisers argue his push to quicken growth is hampered by the policies of central bank head Henrique Meirelles. Ecuador's central bank last month took out newspaper advertisements defending its autonomy after President Rafael Correa questioned the need for its independence. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is also extending his control over its central bank.

In Asia, Thailand's central bank now reports to military leaders who won power in a September coup. Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram this month urged banks not to raise mortgage rates, putting him in conflict with Reserve Bank Governor Y. V. Reddy's effort to slow the economy with higher borrowing costs.

Intensified Pressure

Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, says if political heat is building at a time of strong global growth, it will only intensify when the economy weakens. ``The fear of politicians is that the boom will be brought to an end by aggressive central banks,'' he says.

Feeding those worries is a perception that the expansion has boosted asset values and corporate profits without providing similar benefits to workers, says Roach. Among the Group of Seven major industrialized countries, labor's share of national income shrank to a record-low 54 percent last year, while the share going to profits rose to 16 percent from 10 percent five years ago, he calculates.

Those pressures are currently on display in Europe, where the ECB is under fire as it signals plans to raise its benchmark rate from its current five-year high of 3.5 percent. But while French presidential candidates Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy both want the bank to meet a goal for growth as well as inflation, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is better insulated from such pressures than are other central bankers.

Diffused Power

Power over the ECB is diffused among the 27 nations that constitute the European Union. It would require all 27 to renegotiate the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that created the ECB and set its goals. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Jan. 30 she supports ECB independence ``with all my strength.''

That hasn't stopped politicians from seeking other routes to influence monetary policy. Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean- Claude Juncker and his euro-area counterparts have been pursuing a bigger role alongside the ECB in managing the exchange rate. That would make it difficult for the ECB to raise rates if the finance ministers were trying to weaken the euro.

Even the U.S. Federal Reserve, with its established tradition of independence, isn't immune; one casualty may be Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's goal of establishing an inflation target, says Alan Blinder, former Fed vice chairman and now an economics professor at Princeton University.

Democratic Hostility

``It's possible that Democratic hostility to inflation targets will cause Bernanke to put the goal of an inflation target on hold,'' he says.

While Bernanke said at his Senate confirmation hearings last year that he thinks the Fed could adopt a target on its own, he has also has said he would ``vet'' any such shift with congressional committees that oversee the central bank. The new Democratic chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank of Massachusetts, says he's leery of any change that might compromise the Fed's dual mandate of seeking both stable prices and maximum employment.

``That's not going to happen when we're in power,'' he told an audience at the National Press Club in Washington on Jan. 3. ``And we can prevent that from happening.'' Frank told Bernanke at a hearing last week that he wants to be ``kept involved'' with the Fed's decision-making.

``There are people in this country who think the Fed somehow should be above democracy,'' says Frank. ``God forbid that anybody in elected office should talk about whether or not we need a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed. Somehow, that's sacrosanct. No, it isn't: It's public policy.''

Harvard University's Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, says that's an important point for central bankers keep in mind. ``Central banks need to earn their independence every day,'' he says.

To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net ; Matthew Benjamin in Washington at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 19, 2007 04:02 EST

Monday, January 29, 2007

ECB's Trichet to Examine M3 Data `Very Carefully'

(Update3)

By Andreas Scholz and John Fraher

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he will ``very, very carefully examine'' figures that yesterday showed money-supply growth in the euro region accelerated to the fastest pace in 17 years.

``It confirms what we have already said and what I have already said in the name of the governing council,'' said Trichet in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

Trichet has signaled the ECB will raise the benchmark 3.5 percent interest rate in March, which would be the seventh increase since the end of 2005, partly to slow the flow of liquidity. The ECB yesterday said M3 growth, its preferred measure of money supply, surged 9.7 percent in December, more than double the rate it says risks fueling inflation.

ECB council member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi echoed Trichet's concern in a speech he delivered today in Milan. Growth probably exceeded 2.5 percent last year, he said, and would continue to be ``close to or even above its potential'' this year and next.

``The current level of interest rates definitely doesn't constitute a hindrance to growth,'' Bini Smaghi said. The ECB's strategy to increase rates before inflationary pressures mount ``has proven correct, and will continue in coming months.''

The Frankfurt-based central bank defines potential growth, the speed at which the 13-nation economy can grow without fueling inflation, at between 2 percent and 2.5 percent.

`Not Sustainable'

Trichet, elaborating on one of the most popular talking points at this year's meeting, said on a panel today that financial markets are vulnerable to any shock that could hurt the global economy and their risk appetite is ``not necessarily sustainable.''

Investors and policy makers ``have to be prepared for a reappreciation of risk'' which is ``likely,'' said Trichet, sitting next to Chinese deputy central bank governor Wu Xiaoling and Israel central bank governor Stanley Fischer. Such a move may be ``smooth'' or ``disorderly,'' he said.

Trichet cited oil prices, the unraveling of so-called global imbalances and geopolitical conflicts as potential risks to the global economy.

Several measures show perception of risk is near historic lows. The risk of owning European corporate bonds dropped to the lowest ever this week, according to credit-default swap traders. The amount of debt used to finance European buyouts reached a record high in the third quarter.

IMF View

John Lipsky, first deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, said the level of risk priced in financial markets is appropriate.

``The global economy turned out much better than expected so it's not surprising that risk measure should be moving in a favorable direction,'' he said in an interview. ``Markets often overshoot and adjust back so that wouldn't be surprise. But the fact that there's something fundamentally wrong is not obvious.''

Trichet said central banks need to ``remain very, very alert'' to the risks of inflation and can't take anything for granted. In an interview yesterday, Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the ECB must continue raising rates to keep a lid on consumer prices.

``We have to take this process of withdrawing monetary stimulation further,'' according to Weber, who also heads Germany's Bundesbank.

Investors expect the ECB to raise its key rate twice more this year, futures markets suggest.

Rate Forecasts

The yield on the three-month Euribor futures contract for March closed at 3.92 percent yesterday. The December contract was at 4.17 percent. The contracts settle to the three-month inter- bank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.

Trichet said global growth this year will probably be close to its levels in recent years. The International Monetary Fund says the global economy expanded 5.1 percent in 2006 and 4.9 percent in 2005.

``We have a good probability to have a present year which could be in line with previous years,'' according to Trichet. Still, policy makers, investors and executives should guard against ``complacency'' given the risks facing the global economy, he said.

Growth in the euro region will probably be ``just above'' 2 percent this year, said Trichet, whose bank in December forecast the economy will expand around 2.2 percent this year.

When asked about global currencies, Trichet said he's sticking to the Group of Seven's agreed position and declined to comment further.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher in Davos at jfraher@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 27, 2007 08:34 EST

Friday, January 19, 2007

The Federal War on Gold

Part 3
by Jacob G. Hornberger, Posted January 19, 2007

It is impossible to overstate the significance of the Franklin Roosevelt administration’s confiscation of gold and its nullification of gold clauses in contracts. It is one of the most sordid episodes in American history. To get an accurate sense of Roosevelt’s actions, it would not be inappropriate to compare what he did with the domestic economic policies of a later 20th-century ruler, Cuba’s socialist president, Fidel Castro.

On April 5, 1933, newly inaugurated President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, which prohibited the “hoarding” of gold by U.S. citizens. Americans were required to turn their gold holdings over to the federal government at the prevailing price of $20.67 per ounce.

Pursuant to Roosevelt’s executive order, anyone caught violating the law was subject to a federal felony conviction, 10 years’ confinement in a federal penitentiary, and a $10,000 fine. Soon after the confiscation, U.S. officials announced that the government would sell its gold in international markets for $35 an ounce, thereby devaluing the dollar by almost 70 percent and immediately “earning” a potential profit of almost $15 an ounce on the gold it had confiscated.

Two months later, Congress enacted legislation nullifying gold clauses in both government and private contracts, thereby requiring creditors in such contracts to accept devalued paper money in payment of such contractual obligations, even though the contract itself stipulated payment tied to gold.

Reflect for a moment on the significance of what Roosevelt did. Gold coins and gold bullion were private property, just like a person’s automobile, clothing, home, and food. On the mere command of the president of the United States, federal authorities simply confiscated gold holdings that were the private property of the American people and made it a grave federal offense to own such property in the future.

The gold seizure was no different in principle from Fidel Castro’s seizure of homes and businesses more than 25 years later in Cuba, an episode that U.S. officials still rail against while praising what Roosevelt did. Sure, Roosevelt paid Americans more money for the gold he seized than Castro paid Cubans and American companies for the property he seized, but the principle was the same: the rulers in both Cuba and the United States could appropriate people’s property at their whim.

What was Roosevelt’s justification for the gold seizure? He said that it was necessary to battle the Great Depression. Now, think about that for a moment. How in the world could the seizure of people’s gold relieve the consequences of the Great Depression?

Let’s say that I have $10,000 in gold coin in my house. The Depression hits. Prices plummet. Unemployment soars. How is my delivering my gold to the federal government in return for depreciated paper money going to relieve anyone else’s distress?

No, the real reason for Roosevelt’s gold seizure was twofold: First, he seized people’s gold for the same reason that Castro later seized people’s homes and businesses — to enrich the coffers of the federal government. Second, but more important, he did it to prevent the American people from protecting themselves from the onslaught of ever-depreciating paper money that he planned to use to finance his ever-extravagant welfare-state programs.

Keep in mind that the Framers had implemented a gold standard so that the American people would be forever protected from the destructiveness of inflation. It was the gold standard — that is, the requirement that the federal government redeem all its paper notes and bills in gold — that had operated as a restraint on government’s ability to print ever-increasing amounts of paper money. The gold standard’s positive effect on capital markets was also one of the primary reasons that the United States rather quickly became one of the most prosperous nations in history.

With his seizure of gold, Franklin Roosevelt revolutionized the monetary system of the United States — and without even the semblance of a constitutional amendment. It is instructive to understand how he pulled this off in a legal sense.


Roosevelt’s rule by decree

In issuing his executive order, Roosevelt relied on the Trading with the Enemy Act, which had been passed in 1917 as part America’s war against Germany in World War I. Yes, World War I, the infamous war that was supposed to make the world safe for democracy! This “temporary emergency” law, which should have expired with the end of the war, had instead been left on the books through the 1930s. This is the law that Roosevelt relied on in issuing his executive order confiscating people’s gold.

There’s another significant aspect to the executive order — the issuance of the order itself. That is, Congress did not enact a law expressly authorizing the gold seizure. Instead it was accomplished simply through a decree issued by the president.

What the Congress had done is delegate its power to make certain laws to the president, essentially vesting Roosevelt with dictatorial powers. In March 1933, Congress amended the Trading with the Enemy Act to vest the president with the power to declare “national emergencies” and then issue necessary decrees to deal with such emergencies, including even setting criminal punishments.

It was a type of executive power — rule by decree — that had characterized dictatorships throughout history. Thus, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that one of Roosevelt’s biggest admirers was Adolf Hitler, who was dealing with the Depression in Germany in much the same way that Roosevelt was dealing with it in the United States. As John Toland pointed out in his biography Adolf Hitler,

Hitler had genuine admiration for the decisive manner in which the President had taken over the reins of government. “I have sympathy for Mr. Roosevelt,” he told a correspondent for the New York Times two months later, “because he marches straight toward his objectives over Congress, lobbies and bureaucracy.” Hitler went on to note that he was the sole leader in Europe who expressed “understanding of the methods and motives of President Roosevelt.”

Nullifying the gold clauses

Roosevelt and his Congress did not stop at seizing the gold of the American people and making it illegal for them to protect themselves from the ravages of inflation. They also nullified every clause in every contract, both government and private, that tied the financial obligation to gold.

How did these gold clauses operate? Let’s say a corporation issued a 100-year bond for $20, promising to pay 3 percent interest. Any lender would ask himself the obvious question, “Why wouldn’t this bond be worthless in a hundred years because of inflation?” To ensure that that wouldn’t happen, the note would contain a “gold clause” which stipulated that the company had to repay the bond, both principal and interest, in the same standard of gold that existed at the issuance of the note.

So let’s say, for simplicity’s sake, the $20 bond was issued in 1885, with $20 equal to a one-ounce gold coin. Let also say that because of inflation, when the bond became due 100 years later, it would take $100 in paper notes and bills to buy one ounce of gold. With the gold clause in the $20 bond, the debtor would have to pay the creditor either a one-ounce gold coin or $100 in paper notes (plus interest). With the gold clause nullified, all the debtor would have to pay would be $20 in paper money (plus interest), even though it would purchase only one-fifth of an ounce of gold at the time of repayment.

It’s not difficult to imagine the adverse effect that Roosevelt’s actions had on long-term capital markets.


The Supreme Court

The constitutionality of Roosevelt’s gold-confiscation decree was never addressed by the U.S. Supreme Court. There were few federal prosecutions, possibly because Roosevelt didn’t want to take the chance that the Supreme Court would declare his confiscation unconstitutional. Better to simply let the lambs who were meekly complying with the law continue filling the government’s coffers with gold and leave the ones who weren’t obeying the law alone.

The gold-clause cases did reach the Supreme Court. Unfortunately, a majority of the Court declared the nullification of the gold clauses in private contracts to be a constitutional exercise of the president’s power. While it declared the nullification of gold clauses in government notes to be unconstitutional, the Court also held, in a twisted form of logic, that the holders of government debt had suffered no damage because gold was then illegal to own anyway.

The Supreme Court’s opinions in the gold-clause cases are worth reading. (See Norman v. Baltimore & O.R. Co.). The most persuasive arguments, not surprisingly, were published by the dissenters — McReynolds, Sutherland, Van Devanter, and Butler, who often voted to declare much of Roosevelt’s New Deal unconstitutional:

Just men regard repudiation and spoliation of citizens by their sovereign with abhorrence; but we are asked to affirm that the Constitution has granted power to accomplish both. No definite delegation of such a power exists; and we cannot believe the farseeing framers, who labored with hope of establishing justice and securing the blessings of liberty, intended that the expected government should have authority to annihilate its own obligations and destroy the very rights which they were endeavoring to protect. Not only is there no permission for such actions; they are inhibited. And no plenitude of words can conform them to our charter....

Under the challenged statutes it is said the United States have realized profits amounting to $2,800,000,000. But this assumes that gain may be generated by legislative fiat. To such counterfeit profits there would be no limit; with each new debasement of the dollar they would expand. Two billions might be ballooned indefinitely — to twenty, thirty, or what you will.

Loss of reputation for honorable dealing will bring us unending humiliation; the impending legal and moral chaos is appalling.

The aftermath

What was the reaction of the American people to Roosevelt’s gold seizure? By the 1930s, most of the United States had been under systems of public (i.e., government) schooling for at least three decades. After years of such indoctrination, even though Americans had not yet become dependent on the federal government’s welfare dole that Roosevelt was initiating, most of them nevertheless now deferred to the wisdom of federal officials to deal with such complicated subjects as economics, depressions, and monetary policy.

Thus, when Roosevelt issued his decree, it was not met with massive protests and demonstrations but rather with the same degree of meekness and submission that many (but certainly not all) of the Cuban people would display when their homes and businesses were confiscated by Castro several decades later.

The additional value of the public-school indoctrination was that it effectively immunized federal officials from having to bear responsibility for the consequences of their own wrongful conduct. For when U.S. officials announced that the 1929 stock-market crash and the resulting Great Depression were all the fault of “free enterprise” and that such things as the gold seizure and the New Deal were necessary “to save free enterprise,” entire generations of public-schooled Americans had no idea that they were being misled. If Americans had known the truth — that the stock-market crash and Great Depression, along with all the financial devastation and unemployment — had actually been the fault of the Federal Reserve, there would have been considerable anger, perhaps even violent revolts, against the federal government.

In 1974 Congress made it legal to own gold once again, providing Americans the means to protect their wealth from the inflationary propensities of the federal government.

Is there a possibility, however, that federal officials could confiscate gold again and make it illegal to own it? You bet your bottom gold dollar there is. For one thing, the Trading with the Enemy Act is still on the books and is still being used as the basis for presidential decrees. For another, ever since the Roosevelt administration, federal officials, assisted by the Federal Reserve, have never desisted from issuing ever-growing quantities of paper money, an inflationary process that has ravaged people’s savings. Finally, federal officials hate gold because its rising price in the face of inflation provides a public and an easily readable market message to the citizenry that government officials are destroying the currency.

And make no mistake about it. If another U.S. president issues a gold-confiscation decree, it will be enforced violently and brutally by federal officials. In the climate of the perpetual “crisis” known as the “war on terrorism,” combined with an “economic emergency,” it is not difficult to imagine that federal officials would conduct warrantless raids on banks to search bank records and safety deposit boxes and prosecute dangerous “enemy combatants” and “terrorist sympathizers” who show they “hate their country” by violating the law against the ownership of gold.

The ultimate solution to this financial chaos, destruction, and morass lies in sound money. The ideal is a free market in money, as the Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich A. Hayek observed. The second-best solution is the type of gold standard established by the Framers, where gold and silver coin are the official money and where the federal government is required to redeem all bills and notes in such money.

Both solutions would necessarily entail the abolition of one of the most powerful engines of financial destruction in American history — the Federal Reserve System — as well as the repeal of all legal-tender laws.

Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation. Send him email.

Tuesday, January 2, 2007

The World's Reserve Currency

January 1, 2007

By Ron Paul

The financial press reported last week that the euro, the new currency created only five years ago and used by most European nations, has supplanted the U.S. dollar as the most widely used form of cash internationally. There are now more Euros in circulation worldwide than dollars.

This alone is not necessarily troubling, as the dollar remains the world’s most important reserve currency. About 65% of foreign central bank exchange reserves are still held in dollars, versus only about 25% in euros. And the European Central Bank faces the same inflationary pressures that our own Federal Reserve Bank Governors face, including a growing entitlement burden that threatens economic ruin as both societies age. European politicians want to spend money just as badly as American politicians, and undoubtedly will clamor to inflate-- and thus devalue-- the euro to fund their creaky social welfare systems.

Still, the rise of the Euro internationally is another sign that the U.S. dollar is not what it used to be. There is increasing pressure on nations to buy and sell oil in euros, and anecdotal evidence suggests that drug dealers and money launderers now prefer euros to dollars. Historically, the underground cash economy has always sought the most stable and valuable paper currency to conduct business.

More importantly, our greatest benefactors for the last twenty years-- Asian central banks-- have lost their appetite for holding U.S. dollars. China, Japan, and Asia in general have been happy to hold U.S. debt instruments in recent decades, but they will not prop up our spending habits forever. Foreign central banks understand that American leaders do not have the discipline to maintain a stable currency. When the rest of the world finally abandons the dollar as the global reserve currency, both Congress and American consumers will find borrowing money a more expensive proposition.

Remember, America can maintain a large trade deficit only if foreign banks continue to hold large numbers of dollars as their reserve currency. Our entire consumption economy is based on the willingness of foreigners to hold U.S. debt. We face a reordering of the entire world economy if the federal government cannot print, borrow, and spend money at a rate that satisfies its endless appetite for deficit spending.

At some point Americans must realize that Congress, and the Federal Reserve system that permits the creation of new money by fiat, are the real culprits in the erosion of your personal savings and buying power. Congress relentlessly spends more than the Treasury collects in taxes each year, which means the U.S. government must either borrow or print money to operate-- both of which cause the value of the dollar to drop. When we borrow a billion dollars every day simply to run the government, and when the Federal Reserve increases the money supply by trillions of dollars in just 15 years, we hardly can expect our dollars to increase in value.