4 Dec 2006 14:09:35 GMT
GAZA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, a leader of the Islamist group Hamas, was prevented from returning to Gaza on Thursday after a two-week trip abroad, a spokeswoman for European monitors at the border said.
"It is closed. The operation has stopped for a while until the situation with Haniyeh is clarified," said the spokeswoman for the European Border Assistance Mission, which monitors the Rafah crossing on the frontier with Egypt.
Israeli security sources said Defence Minister Amir Peretz had instructed the crossing to be closed.
"He is suspected of planning to bring in millions of dollars donated by Iran," one of the security sources said.
Haniyeh has spent the past two weeks in countries in the region, including Qatar, Iran and Sudan, trying to raise money for his government. He has received assurances of up to $350 million in funding for next year.
Blocking Haniyeh's return could incite further anger among Hamas supporters in Gaza, amid a general decline in security and an increase in tensions with the rival Fatah movement.
Israel, the United States and the European Union regard Hamas, which is sworn to Israel's destruction, as a terrorist group and have imposed sanctions against it in an attempt to force the collapse of its government.
The spokeswoman said she had no further information about what would happen with Haniyeh as he was now stuck on the Eygptian side of the border.
Haniyeh was expected to appear at a mass rally in Gaza on Friday to mark the 19th anniversary of Hamas's founding by his mentor Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.
Hundreds of Hamas supporters had gathered at the Rafah crossing to await Haniyeh's return, waving green Hamas flags.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Adens doubt U.S. dollar bullish on bonds
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- More dollar doubts, again from a top-performing letter.
I know, it's my hobby horse recently. See Dec. 7 column
But the fact is that it's simple moves in key markets such as exchange rates that dominate investment performance.
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden have been publishing their Costa Rica-based Aden Forecast since the last gold bull market in the early 1980s. They are chartists, examining market moves in terms of visual patterns. But they also provide intellectually-appealing rationales. See Sept. 5 column
In their just-published December issue, the Aden sisters run a long-term dollar chart and comment: "This shows the dollar going back to 1972 when it first started trading in the free market. As you can see, it's been in a 35-year downtrend since then and it's also been trading in a huge down-trending channel. Within this channel, large drops have taken the dollar from the upper side of the channel to the lower side over the years. Since the current dollar decline started at the upper end of this channel in 2001, it's reasonable to assume that it'll end near the lower end as it has in the past ... If so, that would give the dollar a downside target near .85 against the Swiss franc before this bear market is over. And if that happens, it would mean a 29% drop in the dollar from today's levels."
To put this in perspective: Over the past 12 months, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, the Aden Forecast has appreciated 15.23%, roughly in line with the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, which is up 16.54%. Over the past five years, however, the Aden Forecast is up an impressive 14.21% annualized vs. 8.86% for the DJ Wilshire 5000.
Other Aden observations in their current letter:
- Stocks: "The Dow's long-term indicator remains bullish and it has room to rise further ... (But) for now, this chart is telling us that it's not time to be buying common stocks. If the bull market remains intact, we can always get in later, but the way things are unfolding with the dollar, oil and the economy, there's a good chance we won't. The speculation index reinforces this too ... This shows that speculation in the stock market is still at extremely high levels. It's certainly not as high as it was in 2000 when tech stocks were all the rage, but it's high nonetheless ..."
- Oil: "The oil price ... looks like it has finally bottomed and a renewed rise now appears to be getting underway. That'll be confirmed if oil now stays above $61.75 and then rises above $65."
- Gold: "If this pattern stays on track, then gold could surpass the $722 level. If it does, gold would be extremely bullish and it could then continue up to its 1980 peak near $850."
- Bonds (I have to think about this): "The bond market is looking good. Bonds hit a nine-month high this month as long-term yields tumbled to their lowest levels in nearly a year. The bull market in bonds is now picking up steam, but it's still early and prices are poised to rise much further. That being the case, we continue to recommend buying and holding U.S. government long-term bonds."
But, the Adens caution: "Since the U.S. dollar is now showing renewed weakness, we wouldn't keep more than 10% of your total portfolio in bonds at this time. The metals and foreign currencies are stronger than bonds, which is why we advise keeping a larger portion in those sectors, despite the strength in the bond market."
Current Aden asset allocation: 10% U.S. bonds; 30% cash (Euro, British pounds, Australian or New Zealand dollars); 60% gold and silver physical, as well as gold, silver, energy and natural resource shares.
By Peter Brimelow
By Peter Brimelow
Counting Our Casualities in Iraq
howl by Nicholas von Hoffman
[posted online on December 13, 2006]
We are fast, too fast, coming up on the 3,000th American combat death in Iraq. Or maybe not. The government has had a considerate policy of keeping the bad news away from us, so it's possible that number 3,000 will come and go as we move on to 4,000--and we will hardly be aware of it.
This would be in line with President George Bush's kind-hearted policy of not allowing photographs of the coffins containing the remains of those who gave their lives for the rest of us. It's always better not to know, isn't it?
The famous Baker-Hamilton Commission even made note of how the government is not inclined to pass along the bad news: "There is significant under-reporting of the violence in Iraq. The standard for recording attacks acts as a filter to keep events out of reports and databases. The murder of an Iraqi is not necessarily counted as an attack. If we cannot determine the source of a sectarian attack, that assault does not make it into the database. A roadside bomb or a rocket or mortar attack that doesn't hurt US personnel doesn't count. For example, on one day in July 2006 there were ninety-three attacks or significant acts of violence reported. Yet a careful review of the reports for that single day brought to light 1,100 acts of violence. Good policy is difficult to make when information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes its discrepancy with policy goals."
If news should seep out that the 3,000th person has died, the government may still be able to find a way to prevent people from making a big to-do about it. For example, what if three of our people riding in a Humvee were to be killed by an improvised explosive device at the same time? Who would be number 3,000?
Knowing how the Pentagon works, officials might say that if number 3,000 cannot be determined, there is no 3,000th death. It didn't happen and, as they like to say, instead of looking backward, let's move on.
They might also avoid calling attention to the 3,000th death if they do not like the way that person met his or her end end. Something, for example, like the case of Pat Tillman, the professional football player who, after 9/11, signed up with the Army, became a Ranger and lost his life in Afghanistan. At first it was reported that he died fighting the Taliban, then there was a silence and, after pesky people demanded some answers, we learned that Tillman had been killed by friendly fire, which does not make him less of a hero but which makes him less useful politically.
There are so many ways for number 3,000 to meet his or her death. He or she could be detached to teach Iraqi police and be killed by a perfidious student. There is also death by sniper, there is charging the enemy, death by mortar, death by accidentally being squashed by a tank, there is death by trying to save a buddy's life, there is death by a bullet fired by a fellow soldier gone crazy from PTSD.
There are many ways to die in Iraq, and there are no good ones.
House prices: Bubble and squeak
Dec 7th 2006
From The Economist print edition
While America's housing market cools, property elsewhere is still hot
IN MANY countries, people are showing little sign of losing their appetite for residential property. Although the pace in several of the raciest markets around the world has eased a bit in the last quarter, prices have risen by more than 10% in the past year in eight of the countries in our table. The Economist has been collating these house-price indicators since 2002, allowing us to track the global residential-property boom (see chart).
However, in America the steam has come out of the housing market. In the year to the third quarter, the index of house prices compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), a regulator, rose by 7.7%, the smallest year-on-year increase for three years. In the quarter itself, prices rose by only 0.9%, the weakest for more than eight years.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median sale price of existing homes was the same in October as in September, 3.5% less than a year before; according to the Census Bureau, the median price of a new home bounced up in October. But both figures have been affected by a shift in the regional pattern of sales.
Only in the West, where homes tend to be among America's biggest and dearest, did the number of existing or new houses sold increase in the month. In the North-East, sales of new homes dropped by 39%. Across America, existing-home sales were down by 11.5% in the year; those of new properties were down by a quarter.
A huge number of homes is awaiting sale: 7.4 months' supply of both existing and new properties. David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch, points out that inventories of new homes are 40% above their historical norm. The number of new properties completed but not yet sold has risen by 50% in the past year, to 166,000. America's builders are cutting back hurriedly. In October alone private residential-construction spending fell by 1.9%; it was 9.4% lower than a year before.
Although America's bubble is deflating, other markets are still looking decidedly frothy. Denmark tops our property-inflation table; elsewhere in Europe, house prices in France, Spain and Ireland are still simmering. In Australia and Britain, where it once seemed that property markets had levelled off, prices have picked up again, rising by 9.5% and 9.6% respectively to November of this year.
In a thoughtful recent study David Miles, of Morgan Stanley, tries to explain the doubling of real British house prices in the past decade. Some of the increase, he says, can be ascribed to rising real incomes; a smaller share can be explained by increases in population; some can be put down to lower real interest rates (including the keener pricing of mortgages by lenders). However, a lot of it is speculative. Between one-third and one-half is due to increased expectations of house-price inflation. These amplify the effects of other factors. Faster increases in prices foster the belief that future increases will also be stronger, so that higher prices fuel demand rather than dampen it.
The need to explain so much of Britain's house-price inflation by a change in expectations, writes Mr Miles, “suggests that the current level of house prices may be rather unstable.” Once those expectations come down, real house prices are likely to fall. The trouble, of course, is predicting when.
Boston Air Traffic Controller Says 9/11 An Inside Job
Interview with former Boston Center Air Traffic Controller and pilotsfor911truth.org member Robin Hordon. Visit http://pilotsfor911truth.org
'Gitmo Is Like Being Alive in Your Own Grave'
PAKISTAN:
Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Dec 14 (IPS) - ''Guantanamo brings images of a man in orange overalls, his face down and a soldier holding him by the neck, like a dog on a leash," says 14-year-old Zahra Paracha. "Animals are treated better,'' she tells IPS.
"What's the point of talking to you," she then says, her eyes clouding up. "I'm tired of telling the media that my father is innocent. In the first press conference three years ago, I poured my heart out but that did not bring my father back. I think no one can help us, neither the government nor President Pervez Musharraf.
''When we sold our soul and became a United States ally, we lost any bargaining power we (Pakistan) ever had," adds Farhat Paracha, wife of Guantanamo Bay prisoner Saifullah Paracha and mother of another, Uzair Paracha.
But Muneeza Paracha, 24, her older daughter, a business graduate who has kept the family business stay afloat, is calmer. "I think the situation is somewhat different from what it was in 2003. I believe the Bush administration is under immense pressure to shut down Guantanamo. The media have done a lot and are still alive to the plight of the prisoners and this alone makes me very hopeful." She however, does not deny that life without her father has been tough.
Saifullah Paracha, 60, a successful businessman and a philanthropist, based in this southern port city, has been held at the U.S. military prison, in Cuba, since September 2004. While on his way to a business meeting in July 2003, he was picked up at the Bangkok airport and whisked away to the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan and, after 15 months, moved to Guantanamo.
Earlier that year, in February, 23-year old Uzair Paracha, on a business trip to the U.S., was arrested by intelligence agents and charged with terrorist conspiracy and alleged links to al-Qaeda, the terrorist group behind the Sep.11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. "My husband was such a strong person, but Uzair's abduction broke him. The first time I saw him cry was then. He felt so helpless to be unable to help his son,'' said Farhat
''I don't know if I will live to see my son in person, that's my greatest nightmare. He's been sentenced to 30 years in federal prison," says Farhat, 56, who survives on anti-depressants and the 15 minutes-a-month phone call from her son.
Her voice quivering with emotion, she said, "He was like any young twenty-something, with the world at his feet and a girlfriend by his arm. They were desperately in love and were just waiting for him to finish studies. She got married recently and I don't blame her, for she couldn't wait endlessly."
According to Farhat he's gained weight, 170 pounds, because he avoids going out for exercise as on the way prisoners are strip-searched. "He spends time reading and has also become regular with prayers." The only communication Farhat has had with her husband, since July 2003, was through his lawyer or e-mails from some rights organisations. She gets letters from him which are "short, hurried scribblings at the back of International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) pages''.
Not charged with any crime, the older Paracha was also suspected to have links with the al-Qaeda which he has denied. "He is alleged to have been part of a plan to smuggle explosives into the United States for al-Qaeda. He is also alleged to have spoken to Osama Bin Laden." says the Britain-based Reprieve's senior counsel, Zachary Katznelson, who has met Paracha twice, the last time in October 2006, and spoken to him once on the phone in November.
"He has never hidden the fact that he met Bin Laden in 1999. In fact, he used to brag about his meeting and was quite taken in by the soft-spoken man he thought Laden was. He said he wanted to have him interviewed to give his version, for his production house,'' says Farhat.
Asked if there was any link between the father and son's abductions, Katznelson says, "The allegations for both relate to contacts they had with Majid Khan, another Pakistani prisoner in Guantanamo." Khan, accused of being a member of al-Qaeda, has denied any links the two may have with the al-Qaeda or terrorism. He met them as Pakistani businessmen.
Paracha senior is being held in Camp-5 Delta, which, he told his wife, is ‘like living in your own grave.'
This is qualified by Katznelson. "Camp-5 is a maximum security prison. Each cell is approximately 6 feet by 8 feet. The lights are on 24 hours a day. The prisoners are allowed out of their cells only two hours per day. For a long time, the guards would vary temperatures to great extremes. One week, they would turn the air-conditioning on maximum making the prisoners freeze (they were given only a thin cotton sheet at night which was taken away early the following morning)." The next week, the guards would turn off the air-conditioning to bring up the temperatures to a stifling 35 degrees Celsius.
"Fortunately, since the start of Ramadan, the guards have stopped switching the temperatures between extremes, but rather keep it generally cool."
The two occasions Katznelson met Paracha, he was in fetters. "When I met him the first time, it was in the prison hospital. Both arms and both legs were shackled to the bed. The second time we met, it was in a meeting room in Camp-5. He was shackled to the floor. They removed the hand shackles when I requested but not those of the leg."
Apart from exposing prisoners to extreme temperatures, Katznelson said, for a long time, deviation from the rules was met with violence. "For instance, if a prisoner being led to a shower looked at another prisoner, or spoke to anyone, he was beaten. If the prisoner put his food tray down in the wrong place for collection, he was beaten. Any guard at any time could order a beating or that a prisoner be sent to isolation. In isolation, prisoners' beards and heads are forcibly shaved." But, says Katznelson, the beatings have since become fewer now that a new commander is in place.
The long years of incarceration have taken a toll on Paracha. According to Katznelson, he has "experienced severe chest pains and is at grave risk of a heart attack."
The Guantanamo inmate recently made news when his petition to be transferred to a civilian medical centre for a cardiac procedure was rejected. His wife argues that "he finds the camp facilities to carry out cardiac catheterisation inadequate and risky. It's not an emotional decision but a rational one".
"He is not getting proper medical care. His life is at risk. The Pakistani government must intervene as soon as possible to get Mr. Paracha home," said Katznelson.
Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Dec 14 (IPS) - ''Guantanamo brings images of a man in orange overalls, his face down and a soldier holding him by the neck, like a dog on a leash," says 14-year-old Zahra Paracha. "Animals are treated better,'' she tells IPS.
"What's the point of talking to you," she then says, her eyes clouding up. "I'm tired of telling the media that my father is innocent. In the first press conference three years ago, I poured my heart out but that did not bring my father back. I think no one can help us, neither the government nor President Pervez Musharraf.
''When we sold our soul and became a United States ally, we lost any bargaining power we (Pakistan) ever had," adds Farhat Paracha, wife of Guantanamo Bay prisoner Saifullah Paracha and mother of another, Uzair Paracha.
But Muneeza Paracha, 24, her older daughter, a business graduate who has kept the family business stay afloat, is calmer. "I think the situation is somewhat different from what it was in 2003. I believe the Bush administration is under immense pressure to shut down Guantanamo. The media have done a lot and are still alive to the plight of the prisoners and this alone makes me very hopeful." She however, does not deny that life without her father has been tough.
Saifullah Paracha, 60, a successful businessman and a philanthropist, based in this southern port city, has been held at the U.S. military prison, in Cuba, since September 2004. While on his way to a business meeting in July 2003, he was picked up at the Bangkok airport and whisked away to the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan and, after 15 months, moved to Guantanamo.
Earlier that year, in February, 23-year old Uzair Paracha, on a business trip to the U.S., was arrested by intelligence agents and charged with terrorist conspiracy and alleged links to al-Qaeda, the terrorist group behind the Sep.11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. "My husband was such a strong person, but Uzair's abduction broke him. The first time I saw him cry was then. He felt so helpless to be unable to help his son,'' said Farhat
''I don't know if I will live to see my son in person, that's my greatest nightmare. He's been sentenced to 30 years in federal prison," says Farhat, 56, who survives on anti-depressants and the 15 minutes-a-month phone call from her son.
Her voice quivering with emotion, she said, "He was like any young twenty-something, with the world at his feet and a girlfriend by his arm. They were desperately in love and were just waiting for him to finish studies. She got married recently and I don't blame her, for she couldn't wait endlessly."
According to Farhat he's gained weight, 170 pounds, because he avoids going out for exercise as on the way prisoners are strip-searched. "He spends time reading and has also become regular with prayers." The only communication Farhat has had with her husband, since July 2003, was through his lawyer or e-mails from some rights organisations. She gets letters from him which are "short, hurried scribblings at the back of International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) pages''.
Not charged with any crime, the older Paracha was also suspected to have links with the al-Qaeda which he has denied. "He is alleged to have been part of a plan to smuggle explosives into the United States for al-Qaeda. He is also alleged to have spoken to Osama Bin Laden." says the Britain-based Reprieve's senior counsel, Zachary Katznelson, who has met Paracha twice, the last time in October 2006, and spoken to him once on the phone in November.
"He has never hidden the fact that he met Bin Laden in 1999. In fact, he used to brag about his meeting and was quite taken in by the soft-spoken man he thought Laden was. He said he wanted to have him interviewed to give his version, for his production house,'' says Farhat.
Asked if there was any link between the father and son's abductions, Katznelson says, "The allegations for both relate to contacts they had with Majid Khan, another Pakistani prisoner in Guantanamo." Khan, accused of being a member of al-Qaeda, has denied any links the two may have with the al-Qaeda or terrorism. He met them as Pakistani businessmen.
Paracha senior is being held in Camp-5 Delta, which, he told his wife, is ‘like living in your own grave.'
This is qualified by Katznelson. "Camp-5 is a maximum security prison. Each cell is approximately 6 feet by 8 feet. The lights are on 24 hours a day. The prisoners are allowed out of their cells only two hours per day. For a long time, the guards would vary temperatures to great extremes. One week, they would turn the air-conditioning on maximum making the prisoners freeze (they were given only a thin cotton sheet at night which was taken away early the following morning)." The next week, the guards would turn off the air-conditioning to bring up the temperatures to a stifling 35 degrees Celsius.
"Fortunately, since the start of Ramadan, the guards have stopped switching the temperatures between extremes, but rather keep it generally cool."
The two occasions Katznelson met Paracha, he was in fetters. "When I met him the first time, it was in the prison hospital. Both arms and both legs were shackled to the bed. The second time we met, it was in a meeting room in Camp-5. He was shackled to the floor. They removed the hand shackles when I requested but not those of the leg."
Apart from exposing prisoners to extreme temperatures, Katznelson said, for a long time, deviation from the rules was met with violence. "For instance, if a prisoner being led to a shower looked at another prisoner, or spoke to anyone, he was beaten. If the prisoner put his food tray down in the wrong place for collection, he was beaten. Any guard at any time could order a beating or that a prisoner be sent to isolation. In isolation, prisoners' beards and heads are forcibly shaved." But, says Katznelson, the beatings have since become fewer now that a new commander is in place.
The long years of incarceration have taken a toll on Paracha. According to Katznelson, he has "experienced severe chest pains and is at grave risk of a heart attack."
The Guantanamo inmate recently made news when his petition to be transferred to a civilian medical centre for a cardiac procedure was rejected. His wife argues that "he finds the camp facilities to carry out cardiac catheterisation inadequate and risky. It's not an emotional decision but a rational one".
"He is not getting proper medical care. His life is at risk. The Pakistani government must intervene as soon as possible to get Mr. Paracha home," said Katznelson.
Israel court backs targeted kills
Last Updated: Thursday, 14 December 2006, 09:53 GMT   |
The court noted that not every killing complied with international law, but said the legality of operations should be assessed on a "case by case basis". The ruling came in response to a petition from two human rights groups. In recent years, Israeli operations have targeted many suspected militants and left dozens of civilians dead. The practise of targeted killings dates back to the start of the Palestinian intifada in September 2000 Controversial tactic The term is used by Israeli officials who argue that the tactic is a way of killing militants who are about to carry out an attack or are behind such attacks. However, Israel has targeted political leaders, and civilians have often been killed in the attacks. The tactic is seen by many human rights groups and by some members of the international community, including Britain and the European Union, as contrary to international law. Key Palestinian figures, such as Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, have been killed in targeted killings. The operations often involve air strikes, which use intelligence from agents on the ground to target houses or cars where suspects are believed to be. Civilian casualties The court rejected a total ban saying: "We cannot determine in advance that all targeted killings are contrary to international law." "At the same time, it is not possible that all such liquidations are in line with international law. The legality of all targeted killings must be examined on a case by case basis." According to human rights group B'Tselem, 339 Palestinians have died in targeted killings since September 2000, of whom 210 were suspected militants and 129 were bystanders. The court said that caution was needed to prevent civilian casualties. "Innocent civilians should not be targeted," it said. "Intelligence on the (targeted) person's identity must be carefully verified." The court also allowed for the possibility of compensation claims from civilians. The two human rights groups, the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel and the Palestinian Society for the Protection of Human Rights and the Environment, filed the suit in 2002 but a ruling has been repeatedly delayed. | ||
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)